Tornado-Related Benefit Modeling for Weather Radar Networks

A monetized tornado benefit model is developed for arbitrary weather radar network configurations. Regression analyses indicate that improvement of two key radar parameters—fraction of vertical space observed and cross-range horizontal resolution—lead to better tornado warning performance as characterized by fraction of tornadoes warned and false alarm ratio. Previous experimental results showing faster volume scan rates yielding greater warning performance are also incorporated into the model. Enhanced tornado warning performance, in turn, reduces casualty rates. Additionally, lower false alarm ratios save cost by cutting down on personal time lost while taking shelter. The model is run on the existing contiguous United States weather radar network as well as potential future configurations under the Spectrum Efficient National Surveillance Radar (SENSR) program to generate annual tornado-related benefits for each scenario. This spatially gridded model can also reveal specific locations with the highest remaining benefit pool, which can be used for gap analyses.

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. This material is based upon work supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA8702-15-D-0001. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.