In recent years, there has been unprecedented availability of low-cost and miniaturized environmental sensors. These include in situ sensors capable of measuring atmospheric state variables, rain gauges, soil moisture and temperature probes, and air quality sensors (both particulate and gas). Remote sensors are also available including infrared sensors that can be used to monitor sky temperature, mini spectrometers, and multispectral and thermal imagers. Whereas the mini spectrometers and imagers are more expensive compared to in situ sensors, they are still low cost compared to their laboratory, air, or satellite-borne counterparts.
Low-cost sensors are generally less accurate compared to research-grade equipment, but they can be deployed in large numbers. The high spatial information content resulting from such dense sensor networks can be utilized for research and operational use by combining it with sparse-resolution, high-accuracy observations. Dense, low-cost sensor networks can also be used in combination with satellite observations. One such example is satellite observations to infer surface air quality, which relies on statistical relationships between surface air quality observations and satellite retrieved aerosol column loading. The small size of low-cost sensors also allow for them to be carried on unmanned aerial systems (UAS). On UAS platforms, low-cost sensors allow for the profiling of boundary layer. Imagers on UAS platforms can be utilized for both Earth imaging and also for studying severe storm structure.
In order to effectively utilize low-cost sensors and imagers in the above described fashion, it is necessary to 1) understand and document performance characteristics of low-cost sensors and imagers; 2) given the performance constraints of low-cost sensors, identify the type of research problems and operational tasks where the use of such sensors are appropriate; develop protocols for calibration and deployment of low-cost sensors; and 3) develop data fusion methodologies that combine observations from high density low-cost sensor networks with other data sources. Ongoing research on these topics will be the focus of this session. Several research groups (national and international), conducting innovative research in these topics, will be invited to submit to this session.
Lightning safety and injury prevention has been a concern of the AMS and NOAA for many years (www.lightning-safety.noaa.gov). Now that deaths in the United States have reached an all-time low (only 16 in 2017), it is time to turn our efforts to the international front. Collecting and presenting baseline data, improving reporting, testing of methods in other cultures and languages, and investigation disparities or peculiarities that need to be addressed in safety efforts are only some of the topics that could be addressed in this session.
What strategies and tactics, modes, and media are most effective at convincing us of danger? The language and rhetorical contexts of disaster risk shape our understandings and judgments about what threats we should consider, take seriously, and act on. This session highlights different dimensions of political, social, and organizational elements of rhetoric and its effects on comprehension, influence, and response.
This session will delve into cloud hosting solutions applied to benefit the environmental sciences and specifically applications for processing and displaying environmental information. Cloud computing has moved beyond the model of simple VM hosting toward more sophisticated specialized hosting options, such as collocating large to big data in the cloud with analysis programs and developing new models and modeling platforms in the cloud. While cloud hosting does present many solutions, migrating legacy application to a cloud platform is challenging. Presentations on the cloud migration challenges or hosting limitations and how these constraints were resolved for weather, ocean, or climate relevant applications will be welcomed. Presentations might also include novel uses of the cloud and real-world use cases, including costs and platform selection.
This session aims to bring attention to those applications, technologies, or techniques that are well advanced with respect to the technology readiness level continuum. These applications, technologies, or techniques have not yet been made officially operational by organizations such as the National Weather Service but are being produced regularly in an "operational like" manner and made available for general use. Historical examples are the HRRR forecast model, the MRMS precipitation and severe weather analysis/nowcasting system, harmful algal bloom (HAB) forecasts, high-frequency radar (HFR) wave and current estimates, and the MADIS repository for surface observations and other observations.
Forecasting space weather events presents the ultimate challenge to a space physics model. A forecasting model should satisfy not only observational constraints such as the onset time, severity, and duration of actual events but also the practical requirement of timeliness, accuracy, and robustness under realistic conditions. Modern space weather forecasters and users rely on a wide variety of forecast methods, encompassing simple nonlinear regressions, complex empirical (assimilative) algorithms, physical/theoretical models, and hybrid methods. For a thorough understanding of the mechanisms of solar influences on Earth, models must relate remote sensing data and the driving influences of solar events on the magnetosphere/ionosphere in terms of physical mechanisms.
A number of regional and national real-time flood forecasting systems are emerging for a variety of different flood-related applications. These new systems are taking advantage of new national hydrologic data standards, new advances in supercomputing availability and improvements in model parameterizations and meteorological forcing datasets. This session encourages contributions from all sectors of the AMS enterprise (academic, government and the private sector) who have built and deployed such systems. Additionally, contributions are welcome from researchers who have developed novel methodologies to sense and model flood generation dynamics at a variety of time and space scales. Research and application contributions from within the U.S. as well as internationally are also encouraged.
Turbulence remains major influences on safety, efficiency, and cost in aviation. Relevant turbulence-related topics for this session include research on the interplay and relative contributions of different processes that generate and damp turbulence, what new observations or improvements in physical parameterizations are necessary to improve NWP models’ predictions of turbulent conditions, limits to the predictability of turbulence, and the responses of UAVs and rotorcraft to turbulence. This session focuses on research (basic and applied) and development rather than operations.
Major Events in the United States
It is well understood that aerosol can impact the microphysics of clouds. What is less well understood is how much impact they have in various cloud types and what subsequent effects they have on cloud characteristics, such as cloud lifetime and precipitation efficiency. Some of the variability in how aerosol impacts cloud microphysics comes from whether the aerosol serves as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or ice nucleating particles (INPs). Tropospheric clouds are influenced and perturbed by aerosols in many ways, either sudden bursts of the natural aerosol abundance by, for example, fires or volcanoes, strong anthropogenic aerosol sources, or cloud seeding activities. In some places, especially more arid regions, clouds are seeded with specific aerosols to try to increase precipitation efficiency and to enhance precipitation reaching the ground. Silver iodide (AgI) is a common aerosol used in cloud seeding to act as INP; however, some cloud seeding methods may utilize other agents, such as hygroscopic aerosol particles to serve as giant CCN, or newly designed hygroscopic and ice nucleating particles. Recent numerical modeling capabilities and field programs have advanced scientific research on the microphysical effects of seeding clouds with aerosol, especially with AgI. This session solicits papers discussing the microphysical impact of aerosol on clouds, including those perturbed by seeding activities.
Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)—Part II
Description: A session exploring the practicalities of working with end-users. Notable questions we will focus on:
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How do you manage an organic, slow growing relationship when you're working with end-users, within the constraints of a typically static fixed term funding environment?
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What does it mean to finish a project when your customer's requirements have changed in the meantime?
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What happens when an end-user wants something that's not 'novel' or 'publishable'?
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How can everyone win in this situation and what are the unexpected positives?
What happens when it goes wrong?
- Is there a better word than "end-user"?
- We often learn more from failure than success, but how do we attack this?
During the past year, there has been increasing interest in and open discussions about the subject of the emotional and mental health of meteorologists. This discussion has included several firsthand accounts from experts in the Weather Enterprise, including Ginger Zee's book focusing on her personal battle with depression and an AMS presentation by Christina Crowe about the impact of disasters on meteorologists. Others have highlighted these issues in podcasts, like those called "In the Elements"; new research proposals to study the prevalence of stress-related issues; and the development of training to help personnel deal with stress. This panel will highlight research and internal observations on issues critical incident stress and PTSD among the forecasting community and partners in emergency management.
Earth observation is critical to our global population and global economy. Measuring the value of predictions however is contingent on society’s use of those predictions to make better decisions. The failure of our society to make these better choices also has economic implications, implications typically felt most significantly by populations already at the greatest risk. The 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey itself shows just how important the relationship is between earth observation and the economy as the words economy, economic, or socio-economic are mentioned over 200 times across it’s narrative and referenced publications.
I had little awareness about this connection before 2014, I just knew that I was so enamored by the amazing work done at NOAA and NASA, I felt I needed to advocate for more funding for that work. I was co-founding a new budget coalition I called the Coalition for Aerospace and Science and asked Dr. Bill Hooke for advice. He sent me to Dr. Molly Macaully, at Resources for the Future.
Like so many of us, there are few life changing events like meeting Molly. I asked her to advise this new NASA and NOAA budget coalition and she explained the rationale for increasing investments in earth observation in a simple way – it was the Value Of Information.
As a non-scientist, non-meteorologist, non-engineer, I reduce complex ideas from those experts to simple terms for a living, especially when I’m explaining it in Washington. In this session, I plan to simplify not just this complex topic to several key points, but also cover the research on the value of earth observation from simulations (data inclusion or denial), historical analysis, and market analysis.
Economies are driven by choices based on enormous volumes of information fed into governments, businesses, and individuals, and earth observation data is hard to ignore or exclude given 60 years of science and advancement. We have to understand how the limitations of the scientific method ought to not also limit the public’s awareness of how they are enabled by that same science.
Following an introductory presentation including a series of animations and graphics, we’ll engage our expert panel for more depth of perspective and thought provoking Q&A.
Note: Earth observation will not limited to space in this session, but rather all forms of observation – this should be timely given the expected publication this year as well of the revised National Plan for Civil Earth Observation.
10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
11:15 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Next-Generation Satellites and Sensors Data Assimilation. Part II
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Women in Atmospheric Sciences Luncheon
Location: North Ballroom 120AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Exceptional Undergraduate Presentations
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Today’s new generation of environmental satellites and the international partnerships in place for sharing their data and resulting product applications contribute significantly to building resiliency to extreme weather events. Resiliency to extreme events is being built by better remote sensing and forecasting capabilities made possible by the new and improved satellite data products which help mitigate damage to life and property and aid in the recovery process. In addition, resiliency of these satellite systems themselves is being increased by the advanced technology incorporated in the design of the environmental satellites and by international agreements which facilitate their operation and data access among nations. Panelists from the US and partnering nations will describe how satellite information is used to improve their observation and forecasting capabilities for extreme weather events. A limited # of boxed lunches provided by Ball Aerospace and Technology Corporation., Integrated Systems Solutions, Inc. & Science and Technology Corporation.
The National Weather Service (NWS) is undertaking a new initiative to help improve US weather forecasting. This new process under the recently revised NWS Governance provides guidance to collecting the forecasting needs from the field of operational forecasters, developing requirements from the needs, and then delivering those requirements to developers who create solutions to meet those needs. For 0-18 hour forecasting, however, this process has not yet been fully executed due to lack of awareness and understanding difficulty in imposing it, and obstacles to change the traditional way of developing solutions first. Challenges arise in consolidating the forecasting needs into requirements and then passing those requirements to developers while ensuring this new process does not delay development schedules. The Analysis and Nowcast Branch of the Analyze, Forecast and Support Office is organizing a Town Hall Meeting to discuss ways to alleviate these issues and improve the NWS' 0-18 hour forecasting.
CANCELED: Presidential Town Hall with Jim Bridenstine
Location: North Ballroom 120CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
James Frederick “Jim” Bridenstine was nominated by President Donald Trump, confirmed by the U.S. Senate, and sworn in as NASA’s 13th administrator on April 23, 2018.
Bridenstine was elected in 2012 to represent Oklahoma’s First Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, where he served on the Armed Services Committee and the Science, Space and Technology Committee.
Bridenstine’s career in federal service began in the U.S. Navy, flying the E-2C Hawkeye off the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. It was there that he flew combat missions in Iraq and Afghanistan and accrued most of his 1,900 flight hours and 333 carrier-arrested landings. He later moved to the F-18 Hornet and flew at the Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center, the parent command to TOPGUN.
After transitioning from active duty to the U.S. Navy Reserve, Bridenstine returned to Tulsa, Oklahoma, to be the Executive Director of the Tulsa Air and Space Museum & Planetarium.
Bridenstine was promoted to the rank of Lieutenant Commander in 2012 while flying missions in Central and South America in support of America’s war on drugs. Most recently, he transitioned to the 137th Special Operations Wing of the Oklahoma Air National Guard.
Bridenstine completed a triple major at Rice University, and earned his MBA at Cornell University. He has three children with his wife, Michelle.
Credits: NASA/Bill Ingalls
The National Science Foundation’s EarthCube program is a community-driven activity aimed at transforming the conduct of geosciences research and education by creating a well-connected cyberinfrastructure for sharing and integrating data and knowledge across all geoscience disciplines in an open, transparent, and inclusive manner and to accelerate our ability to understand and predict the Earth system. In this Town Hall meeting we will present the progress of EarthCube on a number of fronts and engage the AMS community in the future steps toward the development of EarthCube. The meeting will provide an opportunity for the atmospheric science community to provide input and feedback on the EarthCube project.
It is important that members of the university and broader atmospheric science community, and program officers of the NSF and other federal agencies, contribute to the development of the NCAR and UCAR strategic plans. Wide involvement in NCAR and UCAR planning is essential because of the collaborative nature of our work and because NCAR/UCAR can only be fully successful through a close and ongoing engagement with a wide variety of partners. New NCAR and UCAR strategic plans will be drafted by the end of calendar 2018, so a Town Hall presentation of these plans at AMS 2019 will be important.
12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Daily Weather Briefings (Tuesday)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
This session considers the fast-maturing SmallSat space, including NanoSats and CubeSats, and their emerging importance in operational meteorology, Earth system science, and remote sensing.
Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a key component of the global climate system. Water, energy, and carbon transfer between the land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) have important impacts on weather and climate variability, predictability, and extremes such as drought. This session focuses on land-atmosphere interactions and characterization of water, energy, and carbon cycle fluxes, and subsequent feedbacks and coupling between the surface and PBL. In particular, the impacts of soil moisture and evapotranspiration on PBL, cloud, and precipitation development remain a challenge to quantify across a range of scales. We invite observation, satellite, and model-based studies of land-atmosphere interactions, particularly at the process-level, and their applications in weather and climate modeling and predictability. In particular, we emphasize studies that utilize satellite observations and remote sensing for L-A studies.
This session will focus on the Evolve initiative across the NWS organization, the value of partnerships, and the status of the National Blend of Models.
We invite speakers and panel members in this session share their experience of being scientists, what exciting them about science, what lessons they have learned and how do they overcome challenges and to answer questions early career scientists have.
This session invites presentations addressing aerosols, natural and anthropogenic, such as aeroallergens/pollen, dust, fly ash, and other particulate matter (PM) linked to health consequences including asthma cardiovascular health, skin and eye conditions, and the transmission of infectious disease. Studies addressing the interactions between aerosol exposures and human health; investigating changes to global aerosol production, variability, tracking, and forecasting; and those involving novel research methods (clinical, laboratory, epidemiological) are encouraged.
A changing climate on our planet implies a new strategic landscape, one that relies on a global and interdisciplinary network with open team of teams to identify risks and seize the ever-changing opportunities. Experts around the world are recognizing the importance of partnerships, collaborations, and engagement to enable exchange of expertise to advance resilience efforts. New frameworks have been identified, built on teamwork, leadership, and interdisciplinary collaborations that involve scientific communities with business and industry leaders, policy makers with commissioners, and thought leaders with practitioners.
To build the global case for resilience research, engineering, and investment, there is a need to share expertise and stories from the global enterprise on uses and applications of environmental information for decision-making. This session presents a global network of providers of data, solution providers, organizations, and industry experts who will share their stories on the use of environmental data, needs and requirements, assessment of climate impacts, and examples of innovative climate solutions to foster advancement in adaptation and resilience.
The pace to develop automated airborne and surface based vehicles (AV) is accelerating. Significant global investments are being made to develop advanced driver assistance systems and flly automated surface and airborne vehicles. Poor weather present challenges to the industry due to its impact on sensor performance, vehicle situational awareness technologies, and ability of airborne systems to maintain flight operations. This panel will review and expand on the goals and outcomes from the Automate Vehicles & Meteorology Summit held in Washington D.C. 23-24 October, 2018.
Data Sharing - Incentive-based data exchange
The challenges and opportunities associated with global environmental data exchange should be examined by the international community to ensure continued viability and success of the global data exchange system. As the world relies on increasing amounts of data, one of the primary issues is the potential for barriers to transferring data within the current architecture. Likewise, the landscape of environmental data providers is being altered to include commercial and other new vendors. The international community and relevant international organizations should consider how to best integrate new and emerging commercial technologies in a responsible manner. As the world increases its reliance on high quality data, international organizations need to focus on how they can best foster an environment that spurs continual innovation. Reasons such as these raise the question of how best to exchange and manage data on a global level. Solutions should not merely focus on updating data policies that are largely unenforceable or are making only incremental upgrades to aging data exchange infrastructure. The international community and relevant international organizations should explore initiatives that will support the continued growth and exchange of high quality environmental data through a responsible approach. This presentation will explore potential solutions such as cloud-based incentive-driven data exchange programs that take advantage of technological advancements to promote greater data sharing. Potential solutions could incorporate a variety of data sets and be scalable to support a range of operational needs. Big data management limitations in the global weather enterprise is one of the primary barriers, and an efficient architecture needs to be established before we can extract more value from existing data or process the significantly larger volumes of data that are expected to be produced over the next several years.
5
Case Studies
Location: North 130 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
There are many places that members of the public can find weather forecast and warning information. In addition to the National Weather Service and local and cable television, there are many private sector companies that provide such information, much of which can be obtained on mobile phones and the Internet. Anyone who seeks such information knows that there can be inconsistencies in the messages provided and that consistency can depend on audience, scale, and purpose of the message. If the goal of the weather enterprise is to provide information that intends to best protect life and property, inconsistent or confusing messages may be a hindrance. This includes plans to provide increased communication of forecast uncertainty and probabilistic information. This session will build on a panel discussion on the same topic held on Tuesday, though it will extend the conversation with specific research on related issues.
This session is composed of oral presentations on the status of AWIPS development, implementation, and use. The NWS AWIPS Program Office will present the current status of the entire program, including delivery of the system to users. Development organizations are encouraged to present the status of their own work as it applies to the overall program. We would also like to invite presentations from the user point of view.
This session will delve into cloud hosting solutions applied to benefit the environmental sciences and specifically applications for processing and displaying environmental information. Cloud computing have moved beyond the model of simple VM hosting toward more sophisticated specialized hosting options such as collocating large to big data in the cloud with analysis programs and developing new models and modeling platforms in the cloud. While cloud hosting does present many solutions, migrating legacy application to a cloud platform is challenging. Presentations on the cloud migration challenges or hosting limitations and how these constraints were resolved for weather, ocean, or climate relevant applications will be welcomed. Presentations might also include novel uses of the cloud and real-world use cases, including costs and platform selection.
Forecasting space weather events presents the ultimate challenge to a space physics model. A forecasting model should satisfy not only observational constraints such as the onset time, severity, and duration of actual events but also the practical requirement of timeliness, accuracy, and robustness under realistic conditions. Modern space weather forecasters and users rely on a wide variety of forecast methods, encompassing simple nonlinear regressions, complex empirical (assimilative) algorithms, physical/theoretical models, and hybrid methods. For a thorough understanding of the mechanisms of solar influences on Earth, models must relate remote sensing data and the driving influences of solar events on the magnetosphere/ionosphere in terms of physical mechanisms.
A number of regional and national real-time flood forecasting systems are emerging for a variety of different flood-related applications. These new systems are taking advantage of new national hydrologic data standards, new advances in supercomputing availability and improvements in model parameterizations and meteorological forcing datasets. This session encourages contributions from all sectors of the AMS enterprise (academic, government and the private sector) who have built and deployed such systems. Additionally, contributions are welcome from researchers who have developed novel methodologies to sense and model flood generation dynamics at a variety of time and space scales. Research and application contributions from within the U.S. as well as internationally are also encouraged.
This session will focus on efforts to harness unconventional observations, or conventional observations in innovative ways, for the purpose of advancing aviation, range, and aerospace meteorology.
Major Weather Events that Impacted the United States
Extreme heat and heat waves are often understood as meteorological events conceptually and practically distinct from dramatic weather disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, or floods. This differentiation may be due to the decorous behavior of heat as a hazard; in most cases, heat does not cause visible infrastructure damage, destroy housing, or invoke costly recovery efforts. Yet extreme heat is one of the leading meteorological causes of morbidity and mortality in post-industrial countries, with death tolls far greater than most other meteorological disasters combined. This session will examine the circumstances under which extreme heat events rise to the level of a ‘disaster’, and the political and policy implications of using ‘disaster’ as a label. We invite presentations discussing the underexamined role of co-occurring hazards in creating large-scale heat emergencies, including technological failures (e.g., power outage, water contamination) and multi-hazard events (e.g., extreme heat following hurricanes or during long-term drought.) We also aim to showcase work exploring how social, physical, and economic conditions, including social isolation, poverty, and even the built environment, can amplify the effects of extreme heat from meteorological reality to human disaster.
Many challenges exist with respect to the collection, storage, transfer, and analysis of "Big Data" across the Earth sciences. New Earth observing sensors and models generate richer and bigger datasets, and many methods are being used or developed to overcome the difficulty of working with them. This session discusses ongoing efforts to identify, assemble, and make large multivariate Earth datasets widely accessible for comparative AI research. Speakers will address real-world Big Data challenges they have encountered in their workflows and/or the solutions they have used to overcome them. Solutions could include data mining or machine learning algorithms, high-performance parallel computing systems or platforms, advanced data storage and transfer capabilities, and more.
2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
This panel discussion focuses on the development of project EnviroNet: an ImageNet analog for environmental sensing data and a global challenge to benchmark progress of artificial intelligence (AI) in addressing planetary boundaries we are on the verge of exceeding. The panel will include world leading representatives working at the cutting-edge of industry, universities, startups, and government labs in AI and geosciences. The goal of the discussion is to seek input on where the AI field is at present and the progress necessary over the next 30 years to address major challenges in meteorology and geoscientific fields before we push the planet into an unsustainable state. The panel and audience will provide their perspective on EnviroNet dataset and challenge design considerations that could maximize engagement with the wider communities, leading to progress on pressing global problems that bridge gaps across AI, geosciences and meteorology.
This special session will focus on the challenges facing the global modeling community as it prepares for a disruptive change in computer architectures. High-end scientific computing has been relatively evolutionary and predictable since the adoption twenty years ago of massively-parallel, microprocessor-based, distributed memory supercomputers. From the late 1980s through the late 1990s, these systems, such as the Cray T3E and IBM-SP, ultimately replaced the large, special purpose shared-memory vector systems that were the mainstay of many scientific communities, including weather and Earth-system simulation. That disruptive decade required Earth system modelers to experiment with different architectures and programming models to sustain progress.
Analogously, high-end scientific computing has entered a new disruptive period. As microprocessors have become ever smaller, they are approaching limitations dictated by power consumption and heat generation, requiring new and experimental processor designs that are the building blocks for the next generations of high-end computers. Achieving grand challenge science goals necessitates that the Earth system modeling community adapt to unprecedented changes in the computing landscape. These challenges include a plateau in system clock speeds and increased software complexity driven by computing system heterogeneity.
Developing and running ever more complex Earth system models requires modelers to support current machines while also preparing for Exascale architectures that will appear around 2020. Success requires a mix of short-term optimization and long-term research in algorithms and computational approaches. We will solicit papers on all aspects of global climate and Earth system models on future Exascale computing systems. This includes fully-coupled models as well as their individual components, including the atmosphere, the ocean, sea ice, land ice, and the terrestrial biosphere. We will cover topics such as software complexity, programming models, algorithms for heterogeneous computers (e.g. CPU-GPU systems), data management, and analysis methods (both post simulation and in-situ).
Embracing the challenges now, rather than reacting later, is essential to sustain scientific progress. We hope this session will further enhance the exchange of ideas and identify new approaches to these complex problems at the intersection of the Earth system and computational sciences.
Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a key component of the global climate system. Water, energy, and carbon transfer between the land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) have important impacts on weather and climate variability, predictability, and extremes such as drought. This session focuses on land-atmosphere interactions and characterization of water, energy, and carbon cycle fluxes, and subsequent feedbacks and coupling between the surface and PBL. In particular, the impacts of soil moisture and evapotranspiration on PBL, cloud, and precipitation development remain a challenge to quantify across a range of scales. We invite observation, satellite, and model-based studies of land-atmosphere interactions, particularly at the process-level, and their applications in weather and climate modeling and predictability. In particular, we emphasize studies that utilize satellite observations and remote sensing for L-A studies.
NOAA’s efforts in social, behavioral, and economic science (SBES) are possible in large part because of the passion and dedication from the SBES research community as well as from a societal impact-minded operational community. At the 2018 AMS Annual Meeting in Austin, TX, the Office of Weather and Air Quality (OWAQ) in partnership with the National Weather Service hosted an informal “Researcher Round Table” with the goal of opening a dialogue to discuss challenges, successes, or ideas that NOAA could improve to meet the needs of the research community. As a result of that informal round table, the NOAA Social Science Committee has undertaken an effort to look at how readiness levels function for SBES, which will be presented at the 2019 AMS Annual meeting.
The National Academy of Sciences report on Integrating Social and Behavioral Science within the Weather Enterprise identifies a need for conversation, especially as OWAQ and the NWS continue to make investments in social, behavioral, and economic science. In light of this, the intent of this session is to open dialogue and conversation about the following possible subjects:
- Debrief of challenges or success from the 2018 NOAA federal funding opportunities
- A review of reviews: Are the questions OWAQ uses to review proposals adequate? Do they adequately measure relevancy? What are your ideas? Do the PIs feel the reviews provide useful feedback? Do operational folks feel they have the knowledge to review?
- R2O: How can we better work together not only to transfer concrete items, like technology, but also SBES knowledge? How does the operational community ideally want to hear from the SBES research community? How does the research community ideally want to work with the operational community? How can we better work together?
- How can we be more transparent and more effectively communicate what has been done in SBES within NOAA?
- And more!
Please consider attending, sharing successes and/or challenges, and learning from one another. Together we will strengthen the relationship between the SBES research and operational communities.
In this session, we invite AMS leaders to speak and followed by panel discuss and dialogue with the audience on what AMS has been doing and can do to help attract and retain women and minority to the field.
The weather enterprise has made tremendous progress in improving forecasts. Yet much work remains to consistently achieve the accuracy and lead time required to properly prepare for high-impact weather events. This panel will illustrate forecast successes and challenges; discuss the role of Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in improving forecasts; highlight efforts to advance data assimilation; and provide an update on the latest developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The panelists will also suggest ways in which the community can better support these multidisciplinary efforts to improve weather forecasts.
Rapid developments in farm practices and precision agriculture require effective use of existing weather observations as well as expansion of boundary-layer observing capabilities. The panelists will highlight the increasing sensitivity of agriculture management to small-scale weather conditions and how research and enhanced operational capabilities may help address those sensitivities.
6
Wind Forecasting
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Forecasting for wind energy.
This session is composed of oral presentations on the status of AWIPS development, implementation, and use. The NWS AWIPS Program Office will present the current status of the entire program, including delivery of the system to users. Development organizations are encouraged to present the status of their own work as it applies to the overall program. We would also like to invite presentations from the user point of view.
With increasing computing power, more accurate and affordable weather monitoring instruments, and progress in remote sensing technology, the amount and frequency of meteorological, climatological, and related data collected every day grows continuously. Consequently, data analysis becomes a time-consuming and oftentimes difficult task. This is also due to the complexity of the datasets, which are usually spatially dependent, time varying, multivariate, or even multimodal. Adequate visualization and interaction techniques can help to explore such large and heterogeneous datasets. Visualization enables researchers to find interesting features, to detect spatial, temporal, or multivariate relationships, or to evaluate uncertainties in the data. This facilitates the understanding of atmospheric processes or mutual feedbacks between Earth system components. At the same time, visualization can be used to communicate important findings to stakeholders or the general public. For this session, we welcome contributions from research fields—such as scientific visualization, information visualization, or visual analytics—that are applicable to datasets from climatology, meteorology, or related disciplines.
Forecasting space weather events presents the ultimate challenge to a space physics model. A forecasting model should satisfy not only observational constraints such as the onset time, severity, and duration of actual events but also the practical requirement of timeliness, accuracy, and robustness under realistic conditions. Modern space weather forecasters and users rely on a wide variety of forecast methods, encompassing simple nonlinear regressions, complex empirical (assimilative) algorithms, physical/theoretical models, and hybrid methods. For a thorough understanding of the mechanisms of solar influences on Earth, models must relate remote sensing data and the driving influences of solar events on the magnetosphere/ionosphere in terms of physical mechanisms.
Data Assimilation: New Developments in Methodology; Research and Operational Applications on All Spatial and Temporal Scales II
A number of regional and national real-time flood forecasting systems are emerging for a variety of different flood-related applications. These new systems are taking advantage of new national hydrologic data standards, new advances in supercomputing availability and improvements in model parameterizations and meteorological forcing datasets. This session encourages contributions from all sectors of the AMS enterprise (academic, government and the private sector) who have built and deployed such systems. Additionally, contributions are welcome from researchers who have developed novel methodologies to sense and model flood generation dynamics at a variety of time and space scales. Research and application contributions from within the U.S. as well as internationally are also encouraged.
This session will focus on efforts to harness unconventional observations, or conventional observations in innovative ways, for the purpose of advancing aviation, range, and aerospace meteorology.
Extreme heat and heat waves are often understood as meteorological events conceptually and practically distinct from dramatic weather disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, or floods. This differentiation may be due to the decorous behavior of heat as a hazard; in most cases, heat does not cause visible infrastructure damage, destroy housing, or invoke costly recovery efforts. Yet extreme heat is one of the leading meteorological causes of morbidity and mortality in post-industrial countries, with death tolls far greater than most other meteorological disasters combined. This session will examine the circumstances under which extreme heat events rise to the level of a ‘disaster’, and the political and policy implications of using ‘disaster’ as a label. We invite presentations discussing the underexamined role of co-occurring hazards in creating large-scale heat emergencies, including technological failures (e.g., power outage, water contamination) and multi-hazard events (e.g., extreme heat following hurricanes or during long-term drought.) We also aim to showcase work exploring how social, physical, and economic conditions, including social isolation, poverty, and even the built environment, can amplify the effects of extreme heat from meteorological reality to human disaster.
This session will highlight initial analyses and the assessments of the health impacts from the devastating hurricane season of 2017, with a focus on interactions between healthcare and municipal infrastructure, housing and human and animal health. Immediate and delayed impacts, cascading power failure and heat waves, infectious and chronic diseases, loss of access to care and exposure to harmful chemicals and pathogens are all relevant subjects. Talks highlighting innovative ways of obtaining data or implementing solutions are most welcome.
4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Book Talks @ Authors Corner (Tues)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Seventh Symposium on the JCSDA Poster Session
Posters for all EIPT topic areas are welcome.
Assorted posters from the Ninth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python.
Poster II: Observing Systems: Observation Sensitivity and Impact Experiments
Day two posters.
ARAM Conference posters
Advances in the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and atmospheric evaporative demand (Eo) are made across a broad range of scales and techniques, from in-situ observations to remote sensing and modeling. Specific topics for this session may include but are not limited to: (1) estimating ET from various perspectives: remote sensing platforms, ground-based point observations and parameterizations, plant-based experimentation, and water budgets; (2) operational ET estimation; (3) land surface-atmosphere feedbacks; (4) future remote sensing missions and needs for ET; (5) Eo as an input to operational LSMs to derive ET, schedule crop irrigation, and as a metric of hydroclimatic trends and variability. New methods are emerging to more robustly partition total ET between evaporation and transpiration fluxes from both a modeling and a measurement perspective. We encourage papers with a focus on information conveyed by E and T, as well as ET. This year, recognizing that transpiration is regulated through vegetation hydrodynamics, we are particularly seeking submissions relating to both experimental and theoretical work linking plant hydrodynamics, ecology, hydrology, and meteorology. Understanding and simulating these hydraulic behaviors of vegetation and their outcomes, in terms of water and carbon flux, is key to improving land-surface and hydrologic models. Advances in remote sensing of water content and new databases compiling extensive monitoring records of site- and plant-level water flux and hydraulic trait data are poised for incorporation into such models through an emerging body of vegetation hydrodynamics modeling frameworks.
Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a key component of the global climate system. Water, energy, and carbon transfer between the land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) have important impacts on weather and climate variability, predictability, and extremes such as drought. This session focuses on land-atmosphere interactions and characterization of water, energy, and carbon cycle fluxes, and subsequent feedbacks and coupling between the surface and PBL. In particular, the impacts of soil moisture and evapotranspiration on PBL, cloud, and precipitation development remain a challenge to quantify across a range of scales. We invite observation, satellite, and model-based studies of land-atmosphere interactions, particularly at the process-level, and their applications in weather and climate modeling and predictability. In particular, we emphasize studies that utilize satellite observations and remote sensing for L-A studies.
A number of regional and national real-time flood forecasting systems are emerging for a variety of different flood-related applications. These new systems are taking advantage of new national hydrologic data standards, new advances in supercomputing availability and improvements in model parameterizations and meteorological forcing datasets. This session encourages contributions from all sectors of the AMS enterprise (academic, government and the private sector) who have built and deployed such systems. Additionally, contributions are welcome from researchers who have developed novel methodologies to sense and model flood generation dynamics at a variety of time and space scales. Research and application contributions from within the U.S. as well as internationally are also encouraged.
While many hydroclimate extremes can be explained via internal atmospheric variability, processes that govern the exchange of water and energy exist between the atmosphere and the surface contribute to the development and persistence of extremes. These exchanges are driven by the complex interactions between different vegetation types, soil moisture, surfaces fluxes, precipitation, boundary layer evolution, and upper-air dynamics. Given these processes occur across varying spatial scales, the interconnections between the atmosphere and the surface impact local to global properties of the weather, climate, water, and ecosystems. Further, significant uncertainty exists regarding the future of global hydrological extremes and an improved understanding of the complex interactions between the ecosystem, hydrology and the atmosphere is essential to increased predictability spanning weather, subseasonal to seasonal, and climate scales. This interdisciplinary topic focuses on the numerous interplays between climate, weather, hydrology and ecosystems spanning local to global scales and will include presentations focused on improved understanding of energy and water cycles, the predictability of weather and climate extremes related to weather climate, water, ecosystem dynamics and variability, and the spatial and temporal evolution of their complex interactions. In keeping with the overall theme of the meeting, we encourage submissions highlighting the multidisciplinary nature of these topics.
Large reservoirs provide multiple benefits for water supply and downstream flood reduction. Weather and climate forecasts play a critical role in reservoir operations during extreme events to optimize reservoir storage and reduce downstream flooding. The practice of using forecasts to mitigate downstream flooding is well established and reservoir operators fully consider that information while managing releases through the dam.
Reservoir operators are balancing multiple requirements, reducing downstream flooding, ensuring water supply, increasing water availability, maximizing power generation and, keeping the dam safe. Extreme and remote events challenge both forecaster and operators to quickly determine how to manage designated flood storage and preventing failure of the dam, which include: early releases, increasing spillway releases, and storing water. Incorrect forecasts can magnify the impacts to any one requirement. Interdisciplinary cooperation is necessary to understand the accuracy of the forecasts and improve lead time to optimize operational flood management releases and preventing dam failure.
Science and innovation are at the heart of the WMO strategy for improving national capacity to face weather hazards in a changing climate and to provide better weather- and climate-related services to all citizens worldwide. The WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) aims to expand the frontier of weather science by exploring new predictive capabilities, connecting weather and climate communities, and improving all elements of the weather information value chain. Innovation is catalyzed through three core projects.
The High-Impact Weather project (HIWeather) is a 10-yr activity within the World Weather Research Programme to promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high-impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for time scales of minutes to 2 weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic, and environmental applications. Climate change is constraining us to improve preparedness for future hazards over a wide range of applications and actors. A first approach would be the evaluation of the level of resilience for current society, detecting crucial thresholds—for specific sectors and society as a whole—beyond which environmental, social, or economic stability would be endangered. HIWeather is aimed at developing and applying new knowledge for 21st-century disaster risk reduction.
Concerns about amplification of anthropogenic climate change has led to a growing interest in the polar regions in recent years. Furthermore, increasing economic and transportation activities in polar regions are leading to more demand for sustained and improved availability of integrated observational and predictive weather, climate, and water information to support decision-making. However, many gaps in weather, subseasonal, and seasonal forecasting in polar regions hamper reliable decision-making. The World Weather Research Programme's Polar Prediction Project aims to advance the science in numerical modeling, observing, assimilation, ensemble forecast methods, verification, user engagement, and the production of prediction products—all with a polar emphasis. The Year of Polar Prediction, whose core phase runs from mid-2017 to mid-2019, is the key activity of PPP.
The World Weather and World Climate Research Programmes launched the Subseasonal to Seasonal Project aiming to provide predictions from 2 weeks to 2 months ahead From the end-user perspective, the subseasonal to seasonal time range is a very important one, as many management decisions in agriculture and food security, water disaster risk reduction, and health fall into this range. Improved weather-to-climate forecasts tailored to key social needs promise to be of significant social and economic value. Recent research has indicated potential sources of predictability for the subseasonal to seasonal time range. Identifying windows of opportunity with increased forecast skill could be the basis for enhanced, actionable forecasts. Specific attention is paid to the risk of extreme events, including tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, heat waves, and the waxing and waning of monsoon precipitation.
5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
The increasing volume, resolution and variety of geoscience data, along with increasing capabilities of high performance computing and new machine learning (ML) techniques are providing novel opportunities. Deep learning (DL) is now being applied to track weather events, localise, detect and classify extreme events, or emulate physics models. Therefore, it is timely to examine the value of DL/ML or hybrid approaches, over traditional physics methods. The artificial intelligence (AI) community also uses different criteria to benchmark progress through global challenges such as ImageNet versus how geoscience tackles planetary challenges, explainability and reproducibility of results. As new waves of intelligence are applied to the Earth, whist we face existential risks from exceeding its sustainable boundaries -- what are the emerging opportunities and challenges at the crossroads of this planetary transition, into this new age of ‘Planetary Intelligence’? The panel will explore this question across three topics: Physics-guided ML; EnviroNet & Climate change-AI.
6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
NASA’s Earth Science Division (ESD) leadership team will present an update of status and plans, with significant time for discussion with the audience, which is expected to comprise current and potential investigators in ESD’s programs and/or those of its partner agencies, as well as current and potential users of its products. Highlighted items include status of operating and future satellite missions; implementation of Venture Class activities; evolution of and plans for the research, applied sciences, and technology elements; contribution to interagency and international Earth observation and global change programs, and response to and preparation for community-based guiding documents. A particular focus of this year’s Town Hall will be on ESD actions, plans, and mechanisms for community interaction in response to the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine Decadal Survey, Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space, that was released during the past year.
6:00 PM-7:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Extreme events cause disproportionate damage compared to regular events, as can be seen following the hurricanes and wildfires that affected the US in recent years. The ability of Earth System models to capture the general characteristics, variability, and changes of these events requires more research. Earth system models strive to represent the two-way interactions between large-scale variability and small-scale weather, allowing regional extremes to be modeled on multiple time scales. Extreme weather events carry a host of environmental impacts that have implications for multiple sectors such as energy, and water. The Model-Analysis component of the Earth and Environmental Systems Division at DOE uses a multipronged approach in understanding the underlying physical processes of extreme events, characterizing, and developing metrics and analysis tools to evaluate them. At this town hall we will highlight examples of current research, and seek input from the community with respect to collaborations and future research.
6:00 PM-10:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
University Night Receptions
6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Inez Fung Dinner
Location: West 213AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Wednesday, 9 January 2019
7:00 AM-8:15 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
The weather enterprise continues to rally around the need for increased community engagement between public and private sectors based on our collective effort to restore and maintain U.S. leadership in weather prediction and forecasting according to the Weather Act of 2017. NOAA will host a town hall meeting between the research and operational communities as a follow on to the Building a Weather Ready Nation by Transitioning Academic Research to NOAA Operations Workshop back in November 2017. In order to achieve our goal of U.S. leadership in earth system modeling, NOAA must continuously engage the community by providing updates on the current status and future needs for improving the research to operation (R2O) process while underpinning this process with proven social science. It’s important that the weather enterprise continues to evolve and that together we find methods and practices that increasingly support improvements in U.S. weather modeling through community efforts.
NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS) continues to evolve to a more mission-effective, integrated, adaptable, and affordable portfolio of satellite observations. NESDIS products and services are responding to changing technology, emerging partnerships and evolving observation requirements. A significant part of this evolution is enhanced engagement with the commercial sector. This engagement spans the breadth of NESDIS work: infusion of new technology, future program acquisition, additional sources of data, data processing, and data exploitation. In this Town Hall, Dr. Steve Volz, NESDIS Assistant Administrator, will give an overview of opportunities for the commercial sector to work more closely with NESDIS now and in the coming years.
7:25 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Quiet Room (Wednesday)
Location: West 206 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
AMS Information Desk (Wed)
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Member Services Desk (Wed)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Registration (Wed)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Speaker Ready Room (Wed)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
8:15 AM-8:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
8:30 AM-9:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
- Droughts are costly natural hazards. The extent and impacts from drought are not constrained by any nation’s borders. Coordination and communication on droughts between adjacent countries can help individual countries understand and build resilience to impacts from droughts. International partnerships can be utilized further to share knowledge and approaches, while helping to jointly address research and product development. This session will focus on strategies and specific examples of how multinational collaboration on drought monitoring and prediction strengthens understanding and planning for droughts at national levels. Types of collaboration can vary from monitoring, assessments, research, outlook tools and products, and capacity building. Examples of how drought monitoring and prediction have been utilized to inform decision making for targeted applications (e.g. energy and food production, wildfire management) within a transboundary context are encouraged. Outcomes from this session will increase awareness on the importance of international partnerships in the delivery of drought early warning information, drought impact assessments, and drought forecasting.
The session focuses on machine learning techniques for future-generation weather, climate, and ocean models, which includes machine learning testbeds with idealized modeling frameworks such as aquaplanets, shallow-water models, single-column models, or even more conceptual models. Potential topics might explore whether machine learning techniques can be used to estimate uncertain parameters or closure assumptions in subgrid-scale physical parameterizations, or even replace complex physical parameterization packages such as cloud or turbulence schemes. Of particular interest are physics-informed machine learning concepts.
As the Weather Enterprise continues providing critical services to support public and private interests, the entities it encounters will become more and more diverse. This session will address challenges and successes in building and maintaining such relationships, with an emphasis on the benefits such diverse partnerships bring to the various entities in weather, water, and climate.
In recent years, the National Weather Service and other public and private weather entities have adapted to increasing demands for life-saving products and services. These have served native peoples, persons with disabilities, and other minority groups successfully, with numerous lives saved and economic losses avoided. This session will showcase the greatness of the Weather Enterprise and its aim to reach people wherever they are.
This session will focus on the links between extreme weather events and climate anomalies and infectious disease ecology, including vectorborne, waterborne, and foodborne transmission. Presentations implementing short-, medium-, and long-term forecasting methods or data to identify weather- and climate-mediated changes in infectious disease transmission risk are encouraged, as are studies that illustrate the complex nature of infectious disease transmission following weather events including hurricanes, floods, and the role of community resilience and adaptation as mediators.
The dynamics of the middle atmosphere and its coupling to the tropospheric weather and climate are inherently tied to a broad spectrum of atmospheric waves. This session will consider theoretical, observational, and modeling (idealized to complex) studies focused on the interactions between waves (gravity waves to planetary scale) with the circulation. Additionally, we will consider presentations that discuss dynamic features of the middle atmosphere, such as the Brewer–Dobson circulation and polar vortices, and their connection to the global atmosphere–ocean system.
Mixed-phase clouds composed of a mixture of supercooled liquid droplets and ice crystals are found across the globe. They are the dominant cloud type during the colder three-quarters of the year in the Arctic while at lower latitudes, mixed-phase clouds occur are associated with deep convection, synoptic-scale midlatitude weather systems, and orographic clouds. Aerosols by serving both cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei can alter mixed-phase cloud properties, and consequently modulate the regional hydrological cycle. This session invites papers on any of the following or related subjects: (1) characterization of mixed-phase clouds using observations and modeling; (2) process-level understanding of CCN/IN impacts on mixed-phase clouds; (3) assessment of the climatic influence of aerosol–cloud interaction in mixed-phase clouds, especially over the Arctic; (4) evaluation and improvement of mixed-phase clouds in numerical models.
Vulnerable populations are those groups of individuals less able to anticipate, respond to, and recover from the impacts of hazardous events. Vulnerability may be the result of challenges due to socioeconomic status or a physical disability. Groups defined by age, race, ethnicity, or some other factor may experience higher levels of vulnerability. Vulnerability can also be heightened due to geographic location, in which these other characteristics often interact. This session will focus on the special challenges associated with, or successful strategies for, communicating warning information with one or more of these groups. This includes research on barriers to receiving, or comprehending information, challenges to acting upon it, or case studies in which vulnerable populations played a significant role in the warning communication and response process.
This panel is a discussion on the 2017 hurricane season. Attendees will have the opportunity to engage panelists from both the public and private sectors to discuss how Maria, Irma, and Harvey have changed the way the whole community approaches emergency preparedness.
Panelists will outline challenges and opportunities associated with forecasting extreme weather at sea, from the Arctic to the tropics, and providing that information to the maritime community.
These sessions are devoted to current and next-generation weather radars, with emphasis on radar meteorology science, weather radar applications, weather radar signal processing, weather radar prototype developments, experimental weather radar data collections, and essentially all radar meteorological algorithms. Presentations about advanced radar technologies, including phased array radars, polarimetry, multifunction scan strategies, retrieval algorithms, signal processing for clutter rejection, etc. will be a focus of these sessions. Outcomes could include radar measurements in the context of numerical model assimilation and radar-based short-term forecasts. Example of presentations may include the SENSR initiative, the dual-pol WSR-88D, etc.
With increasing computing power, more accurate and affordable weather monitoring instruments, and progress in remote sensing technology, the amount and frequency of meteorological, climatological, and related data collected every day grows continuously. Consequently, data analysis becomes a time consuming and oftentimes difficult task. This is also due to the complexity of the datasets, which are usually spatially dependent, time varying, multivariate, or even multimodal. Adequate visualization and interaction techniques can help to explore such large and heterogeneous datasets. Visualization enables researchers to find interesting features, to detect spatial, temporal, or multivariate relationships, or to evaluate uncertainties in the data. This facilitates the understanding of atmospheric processes or mutual feedbacks between Earth system components. At the same time, visualization can be used to communicate important findings to stakeholders or the general public. For this session, we welcome contributions from research fields—such as scientific visualization, information visualization, or visual analytics—that are applicable to datasets from climatology, meteorology, or related disciplines.
Extreme weather and climate events in the mid-latitudes are associated with severe impacts on society and the environment, often having lasting socioeconomic impacts. Quantification of risks associated with these events remains challenging, particularly under anthropogenically forced non-stationarity in the climate system. Part of this challenge stems from an incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms associated with extreme events in the current climate and uncertainty in the fidelity with which climate models resolve key driving mechanisms and processes. Furthermore, representing and projecting change in extremes using climate models, specifically at local to regional scales, is often challenged by model resolution limitations. This session explores advances in how we analyze extreme events in the mid-latitudes (e.g. polar-air outbreaks, droughts, floods, storms, heat waves) in present and future climates. Efforts towards improved understanding of the driving physics and dynamics behind mid-latitude extremes, novel approaches to evaluating climate model skill at simulating these features, new approaches to address model resolution limitations, and cutting-edge methodology to assess projections of future change are of particular interest. Interdisciplinary work addressing the applications of scientific research on extremes to stakeholder decision-making processes is encouraged.
Over the past few decades, the Phoenix metropolitan area has become the center stage for sustainability research related to urban heat islands, drought, and other challenges facing desert climates. Situated in the Sonoran Desert, Phoenix’s extreme climate and rapid urbanization patterns have rendered the metropolitan area a perfect testbed to investigate extreme events and evaluate various hazard mitigation strategies through real world, solutions-oriented research.
The 21st century has already brought numerous weather extremes to Phoenix, ranging from 120 degree Fahrenheit temperatures to record flooding. Recognizing that Phoenix conditions could become the new normal in other parts of the world, this region has long embraced its sandbox role. City officials and researchers are actively seeking to understand the processes for these hazards, their impacts on urban infrastructure, and how they affect the population to increase urban resilience, especially among the vulnerable and underrepresented groups (low-income, elderly, native peoples, etc.).
The study of extreme events in light of cascading negative effects as well as feedback loops within weather hazards requires interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary collaboration. We welcome contributions that address extreme heat, drought, flooding, monsoonal weather patterns, and wildfires as they impact urban infrastructure, transportation, design and planning, risk perception, the energy-food-water nexus, and livability of cities.
Presentations are particularly encouraged from researchers studying Phoenix, but we also welcome presentations from research teams studying other desert cities (e.g., Dubai, Israel, Kuwait, Sydney, Melbourne).
Most people typically do not associate “extreme events” with the solar minimum. However, the declining (postmaximum) phase of the solar cycle is notorious for unusually energetic events, and the most recent solar cycles are no exception. Additionally, the solar minimum poses space weather challenges of its own; the most recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, and some are forecasting another extended minimum. This session will focus on the "last gasp" of energetic phenomena associated with the declining phase of the cycle, space weather during solar minimum, and implications for forecasting extreme events for the upcoming solar cycles.
Advances in the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and atmospheric evaporative demand (Eo) are made across a broad range of scales and techniques, from in-situ observations to remote sensing and modeling. Specific topics for this session may include but are not limited to: (1) estimating ET from various perspectives: remote sensing platforms, ground-based point observations and parameterizations, plant-based experimentation, and water budgets; (2) operational ET estimation; (3) land surface-atmosphere feedbacks; (4) future remote sensing missions and needs for ET; (5) Eo as an input to operational LSMs to derive ET, schedule crop irrigation, and as a metric of hydroclimatic trends and variability. New methods are emerging to more robustly partition total ET between evaporation and transpiration fluxes from both a modeling and a measurement perspective. We encourage papers with a focus on information conveyed by E and T, as well as ET. This year, recognizing that transpiration is regulated through vegetation hydrodynamics, we are particularly seeking submissions relating to both experimental and theoretical work linking plant hydrodynamics, ecology, hydrology, and meteorology. Understanding and simulating these hydraulic behaviors of vegetation and their outcomes, in terms of water and carbon flux, is key to improving land-surface and hydrologic models. Advances in remote sensing of water content and new databases compiling extensive monitoring records of site- and plant-level water flux and hydraulic trait data are poised for incorporation into such models through an emerging body of vegetation hydrodynamics modeling frameworks.
Over the last several decades, substantial progress has been achieved in probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting theories and applications. However, significant challenges still exist in assessing the uncertainty of complex hydrometeorological processes and improving the quality of hydrometeorological predictions, especially high-impact hydrometeorological events. This session solicits papers that focus on, but are not limited to, (1) addressing uncertainty in hydrometeorological forecasting from a number of sources in both offline and couple systems, and (2) innovative methods in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting. The former might include uncertainties in forcing data (e.g., quantitative precipitation estimation, meteorological forcing data), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture, heterogeneous geographical conditions), parameters, model structure (physics), and calibration. The latter emphasizes integrated ensemble methods to improve individual hydrologic and atmospheric models, coupled atmosphere–land–hydrology systems, verification methods to evaluate probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting, and technologies to process systematic errors of hydrometeorological forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. Work on topics of statistical postprocessing of hydrometeorological model output and assessing the uncertainty of postprocessing are also encouraged.
The CYGNSS constellation of eight satellites has been operating in low inclination (tropical) Earth orbit since December 2016. Each satellite carries a four-channel bistatic radar receiver that measures GPS signals scattered by the Earth surface. Over ocean, surface roughness, near-surface wind speed, and air–sea heat flux are estimated. Over land, near-surface soil moisture and flood inundation are estimated. The measurements are unique in several respects, most notably in their ability to penetrate through all levels of precipitation, made possible by the low frequency at which GPS operates, and in the frequent sampling of extreme weather and complete sampling of the diurnal cycle, made possible by the large number of satellites. The mission is currently in its continuous science phase of operation. Level 2 science data products are in development for near-surface (10 m referenced) ocean wind speed, ocean surface roughness (mean square slope), and latent heat flux. Level 3 gridded versions of the L2 products are available. A set of Level 4 products are also in development for direct tropical cyclone overpasses. These include the storm intensity (peak sustained winds) and size (radius of maximum winds), its extent (34-, 50-, and 64-knot wind radii), and its integrated kinetic energy. The use of CYGNSS Level 1 scattering cross section and L2 wind speed data products to improve hurricane numerical weather predictions is also under investigation. We expect the oral and poster presentations in this session to include some or all of the following topics: mission overview and status update; assessments of science data product quality; and results of scientific investigations using CYGNSS data products, including tropical cyclones, tropical convection and convectively coupled waves, air—sea interaction, soil moisture, and flood inundation
Interests from FAA, NWS, industry, and others with operational perspectives can address how observed and forecast weather information impact commercial aviation operations. Specific topics of interest can include case studies that focus on significant aviation impacts; turbulence mitigation; how forecasts, including uncertainty attributes (especially risk and confidence), are used in aviation decision-making; and the most critical research needs for commercial aviation operations.
We will explore definitions of success and competing exceptions in weather and climate research applications nexus. Notable topics to address include the idea of "success" and "value" within the scientific community and the unintended consequences that this might lead to; which techniques and methods can you use to follow a multi-stakeholder project and how to measure success; and how to utilize social science to craft a better outcome for all.
8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Data Assimilation: New Developments in Methodology; Research and Operational Applications on All Spatial and Temporal Scales III
9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
2
Keynote Speaker
Location: North 123 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Guest Coffee (Wed)
Location: Hospitality Suite 428 (Sheraton Hotel )
9:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Exhibit Hall (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Poster Hall (Wednesday)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
9:30 AM-12:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Tree Planting Guest Volunteer Project
10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
AM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Meet President Roger M. Wakimoto (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Various industries, agencies, and municipalities are increasingly dependent upon weather information beyond two weeks in efforts to leverage opportunities, mitigate socioeconomic impacts, and solidify the resilience of infrastructure. Traditionally, weather and climate information is relayed to end users in different manners. Weather forecasts under two weeks are usually presented in the form of diurnal extrema with a focus on relatively specific temporal windows for impact events, whereas, information on the seasonal or longer scale is shown relative to climatological averages and trends. While both of these techniques have useful components, neither has proven to be completely sufficient when coupled with current capabilities on the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale defined by the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 as two weeks to two years. Through the National Earth System Prediction Capability partnership is focused on improving predictive capability in S2S. Model developers seeking to meet this challenge can benefit from access to best practices in the dissemination of weather information. In the development of an effective communication framework, this session highlights current work focused on predictability in S2S through quantitative and qualitative approaches designed to meet user needs. The session seeks speakers with expertise in evaluation and definition of predictability on weather and climate scales with techniques geared to S2S portability as well as speakers with experience and perspectives in research to operations and operations to research.
This session includes top of the line projects and commitments to collaboration toward the goal of improving decision-making.
Lightning detection capabilities continue to evolve. Ground-based networks are making advances, while space-based capabilities are soon to become operational. This session aims to discuss where we are as well as to outline the capabilities that will be coming in the near future. Intercomparisons are welcome to identify capabilities between different systems as well as potential synergistic applications.
Over the past few decades, the Phoenix metropolitan area has become the center stage for sustainability research related to urban heat islands, drought, and other challenges facing desert climates. Situated in the Sonoran Desert, Phoenix’s extreme climate and rapid urbanization patterns have rendered the metropolitan area a perfect testbed to investigate extreme events and evaluate various hazard mitigation strategies through real world, solutions-oriented research.
The 21st century has already brought numerous weather extremes to Phoenix, ranging from 120 degree Fahrenheit temperatures to record flooding. Recognizing that Phoenix conditions could become the new normal in other parts of the world, this region has long embraced its sandbox role. City officials and researchers are actively seeking to understand the processes for these hazards, their impacts on urban infrastructure, and how they affect the population to increase urban resilience, especially among the vulnerable and underrepresented groups (low-income, elderly, native peoples, etc.).
The study of extreme events in light of cascading negative effects as well as feedback loops within weather hazards requires interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary collaboration. We welcome contributions that address extreme heat, drought, flooding, monsoonal weather patterns, and wildfires as they impact urban infrastructure, transportation, design and planning, risk perception, the energy-food-water nexus, and livability of cities.
Presentations are particularly encouraged from researchers studying Phoenix, but we also welcome presentations from research teams studying other desert cities (e.g., Dubai, Israel, Kuwait, Sydney, Melbourne).
Novel applications of satellite data are advancing the fields of public health, air quality, and environmental management, as well as increasing the impact of public outreach and partnerships between scientists and public stakeholders throughout the globe. While NASA satellite data and tools are freely available and accessible via the web, the full, transformative possibilities of satellites have been limited due to potential users’ lack of knowledge regarding data access and utility. This interdisciplinary panel will curate and discuss a wide suite of data and products from satellites, including TEMPO, MAIA, TROPOMI, SENTINAL 4, GEMS, AQUA, and TERRA. We will discuss both historical uses of satellite data and its potential for use in applications designed to further the aims of public health, air quality, and environmental groups (including those focused on environmental justice). Finally, the panel will share strategies for engaging the public.
There is a growing recognition among employers, business leaders, policy makers, and educators that most U.S. students lack the critical geographic understanding and reasoning skills that are required for careers and civic life in the 21st century.
This session aims to bring together STEM advocates, educators, and experts who have been on the journey of creating STEM Education program to building a diverse and competent STEM workforce. The purpose of the session is to invite presentations on existing best practices funded by federal agencies (NSF, NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc.), private foundations, and industries to integrate innovative sciences into STEM education that supports the AMS 2019 theme of the three Is (Interdisciplinary, International, and Inclusive).
The session will be co-convened by NOAA’s Educational Partnership Program with Minority Serving Institutions (EPP/MSI)−Cooperative Science Center (Dr. Shakila Merchant) and NOAA Office of Education (Dr. Marlene Kaplan).
The proposal is to create one combined session (informal and formal) or two separate sessions. One session is dedicated to presentations (oral and posters) papers from the STEM Learning Ecosystems across the nation (informal and out-of-school) and NOAA’s environmental literacy programs across the nation. The second session would include oral presentations and posters on formal education funded by agencies like NOAA, NSF, NASA, Dept. of Education, NOAA EPP/MSI Cooperative Science Centers, NSF-REU, NOAA Hollings/Undergraduate scholarships programs, and NASA-MUREP. Both sessions would also aim at including presentations (oral or posters) from private sectors/industries STEM activities such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, AT&T, and IBM.
The outcome of the session is to create a community of practice network of STEM educators to continue the dialogue and collectively engage in their missions beyond AMS 2019!
Mixed-phase clouds composed of a mixture of supercooled liquid droplets and ice crystals are found across the globe. They are the dominant cloud type during the colder three-quarters of the year in the Arctic while at lower latitudes, mixed-phase clouds occur are associated with deep convection, synoptic-scale midlatitude weather systems, and orographic clouds. Aerosols by serving both cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei can alter mixed-phase cloud properties, and consequently modulate the regional hydrological cycle. This session invites papers on any of the following or related subjects: (1) characterization of mixed-phase clouds using observations and modeling; (2) process-level understanding of CCN/IN impacts on mixed-phase clouds; (3) assessment of the climatic influence of aerosol–cloud interaction in mixed-phase clouds, especially over the Arctic; (4) evaluation and improvement of mixed-phase clouds in numerical models.
Effective communication of weather information is important both for experts who disseminate crucial, life-saving information about threats, and for the public, who need to receive and interpret in ways that allow them to act. This session presents research from social scientists and insights from agencies committed to improving end-to-end communication strategies.
Second part of WFIP2 session.
These sessions are devoted to current and next-generation weather radars, with emphasis on radar meteorology science, weather radar applications, weather radar signal processing, weather radar prototype developments, experimental weather radar data collections, and essentially all radar meteorological algorithms. Presentations about advanced radar technologies, including phased array radars, polarimetry, multifunction scan strategies, retrieval algorithms, signal processing for clutter rejection, etc., will be a focus of these sessions. Outcomes could include radar measurements in the context of numerical model assimilation and radar-based short-term forecasts. Example of presentations may include the SENSR initiative, the dual-pol WSR-88D, etc.
With increasing computing power, more accurate and affordable weather monitoring instruments, and progress in remote sensing technology, the amount and frequency of meteorological, climatological, and related data collected every day grows continuously. Consequently, data analysis becomes a time consuming and oftentimes difficult task. This is also due to the complexity of the datasets, which are usually spatially dependent, time varying, multivariate, or even multimodal. Adequate visualization and interaction techniques can help to explore such large and heterogeneous datasets. Visualization enables researchers to find interesting features, to detect spatial, temporal, or multivariate relationships, or to evaluate uncertainties in the data. This facilitates the understanding of atmospheric processes or mutual feedbacks between Earth system components. At the same time, visualization can be used to communicate important findings to stakeholders or the general public. For this session, we welcome contributions from research fields—such as scientific visualization, information visualization or visual analytics—that are applicable to data sets from climatology, meteorology, or related disciplines.
Most people typically do not associate “extreme events” with the solar minimum. However, the declining (postmaximum) phase of the solar cycle is notorious for unusually energetic events, and the most recent solar cycles are no exception. Additionally, the solar minimum poses space weather challenges of its own; the most recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, and some are forecasting another extended minimum. This session will focus on the "last gasp" of energetic phenomena associated with the declining phase of the cycle, space weather during solar minimum, and implications for forecasting extreme events for the upcoming solar cycles.
Advances in the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and atmospheric evaporative demand (Eo) are made across a broad range of scales and techniques, from in-situ observations to remote sensing and modeling. Specific topics for this session may include but are not limited to: (1) estimating ET from various perspectives: remote sensing platforms, ground-based point observations and parameterizations, plant-based experimentation, and water budgets; (2) operational ET estimation; (3) land surface-atmosphere feedbacks; (4) future remote sensing missions and needs for ET; (5) Eo as an input to operational LSMs to derive ET, schedule crop irrigation, and as a metric of hydroclimatic trends and variability. New methods are emerging to more robustly partition total ET between evaporation and transpiration fluxes from both a modeling and a measurement perspective. We encourage papers with a focus on information conveyed by E and T, as well as ET. This year, recognizing that transpiration is regulated through vegetation hydrodynamics, we are particularly seeking submissions relating to both experimental and theoretical work linking plant hydrodynamics, ecology, hydrology, and meteorology. Understanding and simulating these hydraulic behaviors of vegetation and their outcomes, in terms of water and carbon flux, is key to improving land-surface and hydrologic models. Advances in remote sensing of water content and new databases compiling extensive monitoring records of site- and plant-level water flux and hydraulic trait data are poised for incorporation into such models through an emerging body of vegetation hydrodynamics modeling frameworks.
Over the last several decades, substantial progress has been achieved in probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting theories and applications. However, significant challenges still exist in assessing the uncertainty of complex hydrometeorological processes and improving the quality of hydrometeorological predictions, especially high-impact hydrometeorological events. This session solicits papers that focus on, but are not limited to, (1) addressing uncertainty in hydrometeorological forecasting from a number of sources in both offline and couple systems, and (2) innovative methods in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting. The former might include uncertainties in forcing data (e.g., quantitative precipitation estimation, meteorological forcing data), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture, heterogeneous geographical conditions), parameters, model structure (physics), and calibration. The latter emphasizes integrated ensemble methods to improve individual hydrologic and atmospheric models, coupled atmosphere–land–hydrology systems, verification methods to evaluate probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting, and technologies to process systematic errors of hydrometeorological forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. Work on topics of statistical postprocessing of hydrometeorological model output and assessing the uncertainty of postprocessing are also encouraged.
Data Assimilation: New Developments in Methodology; Research and Operational Applications on All Spatial and Temporal Scales IV
Interests from FAA, NWS, Industry, and others with operational perspectives can address how observed and forecast weather information impact commercial aviation operations. Specific topics of interest can include case studies that focus on significant aviation impacts, turbulence mitigation, how forecasts including uncertainty attributes (especially risk and confidence) are used in aviation decision making, and the most critical research needs for commercial aviation operations.
Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) Observations and Applications—Part II
The session will tackle the use of AI and Stat models for physical interpretability of nonlinear systems as well as the interpretation of the models themselves. Nonlinear environmental systems cannot simply use linear analysis methods to understand their behavior. Can relevant information be obtained from successful AI/ML model development, or are the underlying processes themselves sufficiently complex as to not be decipherable? If the latter, insights from successful nonlinear model development could be misleading. Submissions are sought in the areas of AI and STAT methods used to tackle classification, deep learning, regression, and probabilistic distribution problems.
In 2017, the United States experienced 16 weather- and climate-related disasters that each totaled over $1 billion USD. Each of these events had significant effects on public and private property, local economies, and livelihoods. As documented in IPCC reports and the U.S. National Climate Assessments, extreme events will get worse through the 21st century. We must ask ourselves, are all people prepared for an increase in extreme events? How do we involve vulnerable populations—those in areas prone to disasters; those who do not have the means to evacuate during disasters; those who do not speak the predominant language(s) of the country—in planning for future extreme events? In this session, we will discuss research that brings together concerns about extreme events and vulnerable populations.
Recent boreal and austral wildfire seasons have exhibited an apparent graduation toward new extremes in wildfire behavior, explosive pyroconvection, and hemisphere-scale smoke plumes. For instance, a wildfire complex in British Columbia, Canada, erupted into at least seven pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) storms during August 2017, generating a stratospheric smoke plume unprecedented in the satellite era (post 1978). High-altitude smoke from this event was observed over the Arctic, as well as most of Europe and northern Asia. Observations across the entire Northern Hemisphere revealed plume concentration, mass burden, and optical/physical properties unprecedented at stratospheric altitudes in the absence of a major volcanic eruption. In an apparent first for western Europe, fatality-causing wildfires in Portugal exploded into pyroCb during June and October 2017. In January 2018, the first pyroCb ever detected in South America exploded from a prescribed fire in Argentina. Our motive for this session is to discuss and assess the impacts of these and other extreme fire events on communities, weather, and climate. Contributions to this session can focus on the details of specific events or upper-atmospheric smoke plumes in general. Several important science questions will be addressed: the observational gaps exposed by these unprecedented events, the nature and expected frequency of the fuel/fire/plume dynamics leading to pyroCb plumes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, the hemispheric atmospheric impact, and our modeling/predictive capability. We solicit papers on remote sensing (active and passive), in situ measurements, and modeling.
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Anthes Luncheon
Location: West 213AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Richard Anthes Symposium Luncheon
Location: West 213AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
AMS Publications has come a long way over the past century and, as always, is looking to improve as we enter our second 100 years. This session will give attendees a sense of how far we’ve come, and discuss what the future holds for AMS publications from an internal and technological perspective. Outside perspectives on future trends in scientific publishing from the library community and an industry expert will also be presented. Presenters will include AMS Executive Director Keith Seitter and AMS Journals Production Manager Mike Friedman, as well as our library and industry guest speakers.
Every stakeholder in the atmospheric science community has a user-focused communication role built into our careers, be it to add value to theoretical or applied science, to provide data and forecasts to the public or possibly to share developments within our field. Even though science communication is a prerequisite for the field, many of us face challenges in adequately translating our work such that our users benefit optimally from our work. In this town hall we will openly discuss the successes, challenges and lessons learned with an esteemed panel of atmospheric scientists, policy experts, social scientists and communicators. We will encourage questions from the audience to spark discussion and thought with the panel.
Numerical models in the NCEP Production Suite (NPS) form the foundation of all forecasting for the National Weather Service (NWS). NWS needs to remain at the cutting-edge and continuously transition science from the research community to operations. A key element in modernizing the NPS is external review by the UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP (UCACN) Model Advisory Committee (UMAC) and the NOAA Unified Modeling Task Force / Committee. Key recommendations were simplification and better governance of NPS, and a closer working relationship between NWS and the research community. A second key element is the Next Generation Global Prediction System project, where NWS has adopted a more project-oriented approach to improving NPS. This project is now addressing regional mesoscale modeling in the NPS. This town hall is designed to communicate progress on model development and the response to UMAC recommendations, and to provide a forum for feedback from our customers.
NOAA's Big Data Project (BDP) is in its fourth year, come hear how the Project has engaged with the user community and CRADA partners to develop new pathways and applications to serve up NOAA's observations and model outputs through public cloud services. In this town hall, presenters will provide an update on the progress of the NOAA BDP efforts, including impact on research and applications, lessons learned, and plans for the future."
Meteorological societies come in many shapes and sizes. So, for example, some are mainly professional bodies or learned societies that cater for the needs of professionals engaged in meteorology, whereas others embrace the weather enthusiasts who have no professional involvement. Also meteorological societies are engaged in a wide variety of activities such as holding meetings, providing educational activities and resources, publishing journals and/or newsletters, and accrediting meteorologists. But that raises the interesting question about what it is that meteorological societies do that cannot be done by others – what is their "unique selling point". Experience of the Member Societies of the European Meteorological Society will be used to try to address that question.
Bob Riddaway retired from the Met Office in the UK in 2005, though he the continued working part-time at ECMWF for another ten years. After gaining a BSc in Physics and PhD in Meteorology from Edinburgh University he joined the Met Office to do research. He soon found that training and operational meteorology and were more to his liking, so his career included being Head of Training, Joint Head of Forecasting and Head of Development Resourcing & Technology. Whilst at the Met Office he became involved in the education and training activities of WMO, and this still continues.
For nearly fifty years Bob Riddaway has been involved in the activities of the Royal Meteorological Society. These included running various educational activities, helping to establish professional meteorological qualifications and being the founding editor of Meteorological Applications. For eight years he was the General Secretary and is currently a member of the Accreditation Board. He became a member of the EMS Council in 2003 and was Vice President between 2008 and 2015. In 2017 he was elected as EMS President.
With the rapid growth of Machine Learning (ML) and its recent prominence in Environmental Sciences, this town hall aims to better understand how such methods can work in concert with or complement more traditional statistical methods. This town hall aims to better define the challenges of ML methods in environmental science applications, discuss how to determine which problems are better suited to particular methods, explore how statistical method and ML can work together and focus on how we can increase interpretability of ML algorithms.
The AMS Committee on Hydrology is charged with promoting events and activities that support the integration of expertise in the hydrological and meteorological sciences. The upcoming 100th AMS Annual Meeting (in 2020) provides a unique opportunity for reflection and charting the future direction of the Committee and hydrologic science and practice within the AMS. This town hall aims to provide to hydrologically inclined AMS members a better perspective on the role of the Committee within the AMS, encourage broader participation with and inform the future directions of the Committee over the next 10 years. The town hall will consist of current and past committee members addressing the following topics: Planning the 100th AMS Annual Meeting, Community involvement in meeting planning, Maintaining balance in the committee membership across work sectors, students, genders, minorities and other under-represented groups, Selection of the awards, Student involvement, and Defining priority science/research themes for the conference
The USAF Weather Systems Program Office (Air Force Life Cycle Management Center, Weather Systems Branch) will present a systems roadmap for USAF weather capabilities and programs to interested industry, academia, and government research organizations, as part of general market research and awareness outreach. Addressed will be likely research and procurement opportunities of weather systems with meteorological in-situ and remote sensing, modeling and high-performance computing, large-scale processing and dissemination, and forecaster applications.A limited number of boxed lunches will be provided by Northrop Grumman.
12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Daily Weather Briefings (Wed)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
The MJO is the dominant mode of intraseasonal climate variability in the tropical troposphere with derivative effects on weather and intraseasonal climate outside of the tropics. Recent work has revealed a wide variety of connections between tropical convection and the middle atmosphere. In the planned session, contributions would be solicited relating to (a) stratospheric influences on deep tropical convection and the MJO; (b) stratospheric influences on the extratropical troposphere, either via the MJO or via direct downward propagation of circulation anomalies in the polar stratosphere; (c) the relative importance of the stratospheric influence on tropical convection and extratropical circulation as compared to that of variability originating in the troposphere–ocean system (e.g., ENSO variability); and (d) stratospheric influences on the MJO and its extratropical consequences.
As a community we love Python and other open source languages (Julia, R etc). So much so we love to get up on social media and even in face to face settings and let everyone know how much and why we love these languages. And it is not just restricted to the language itself, we can get vocal about tools in those languages! So this panel session will discuss how we, as a community can grow and be welcoming to newcomers while still advocating for and highlighting the perceived benefits of our chosen scientific stack. Where is the healthy balance between evangelizing and going to far?
Coastal regions have historically represented a significant challenge for air quality investigations due to water–land boundary transition characteristics and a scarcity of measurements available over water. Prior studies have identified the formation of high levels of ozone and other air pollutants over water bodies within the United States and in other countries that can potentially recirculate back over land to significantly impact populated areas; however, large uncertainties persist. Both Earth observing satellites and forecast models face challenges in capturing the coastal transition zone where small-scale meteorological dynamics are complex, and large changes in pollutants can occur on very short spatial and temporal scales. Accordingly, this session invites authors to submit original research using recent field observations, chemical transport modeling simulations, and/or improvements in satellite retrievals within the complex coastal environment. This session invites observational research that consists of, but is not limited to, remotely sensed and in situ observations of air quality from ground-based, airborne (both manned and unmanned) and shipborne platforms. Research projects using chemical transport simulations are also invited to the session, with a specific emphasis on research that couples simulations and observations to more fully characterize land–water interaction. Authors are also invited to submit research projects that investigate current and future satellite investigations of coastal environments from space-based platforms.
The session will feature both contributed and invited talks from across the weather and marine enterprise (public, private, academic). The Symposium on Maritime Extreme Weather will solicit papers on the following topics:
Dangerous Storms at Sea
Extratropical and tropical cyclones produce rapidly changing and extreme weather conditions over large areas of the ocean, threatening the safety of life at sea, causing billions of dollars in time lost and ship and cargo damage annually, and damaging coastal communities. However, there remain significant gaps in our understanding of these storms. Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is an important forecast challenge that is receiving increasing attention in operations and research. Less well-known, but also critical, rapid extratropical cyclogenesis at sea presents a unique forecast problem that requires a greater understanding of air–sea interaction and coupled model improvements, particularly in areas such as the heavily traveled intersection of major coastal storm tracks and the Gulf Stream.
Weather Forecast Needs of the Maritime Industry
The maritime industry would benefit from products and services that extend the forecast horizon beyond the present focus on days 0–4; provide probabilistic forecasts of hazards and high waves; and improve prediction of sea ice development, movement, and decay. Additionally, as cargo and cruise ships continue to get larger, carrying ever more goods and passengers, consideration must be given to providing forecasts and hazardous weather warnings that address the challenges such large ships must face. Stronger public–private partnerships within the maritime weather enterprise will help ensure mariners get the best possible forecasts and warning services.
Weather Observations on the High Seas
Strengthening the global ocean observing system (in situ and satellite based) and achieving optimal spatial distribution is an international challenge highlighted by the WMO Marine Meteorology and Oceanography Programme. A more robust engagement with commercial vessel operators is needed to increase the number and quality of weather observations from ships of opportunity, improving forecasts. Efforts to increase international collaboration and the sharing of remotely sensed ocean surface vector winds and altimeter data are needed to better analyze and predict areas of dangerous winds and waves at sea.
Future of Communication and Dissemination Systems for Mariners
Challenges exist in exchanging information among ships, national hydrometeorological centers, and commercial weather providers. Recent incidents at sea demonstrate that such challenges may adversely impact decision-making by mariners. This situation is further exacerbated by a maritime weather infrastructure that remains heavily reliant on decades-old technology for dissemination, such as radiofax and text broadcasts.
Some types of extreme events are known to produce large and long-lasting anomalies not only locally, in the area of the immediate impact, but also in atmospheric regions thousands of kilometers away. The session invites studies that demonstrate both the downward and upward vertical coupling mechanisms, that is, connections from the upper atmosphere down to the troposphere, and from the troposphere and stratosphere up to the thermosphere and ionosphere. This session will explore two types of extreme events—sudden stratospheric warmings and energetic particle precipitation—and discuss dynamical, thermal, and chemical effects of such events. Contributions on other types of events are also welcome.
The use of machine learning techniques is already widespread in the climate community. Examples include the application of deep learning to characterize climate model outputs, high-resolution climate downscaling, or the use of neural networks for the modeling of climate time series. Submissions are sought for broad contributions that AI can make to climate studies and particularly topics relevant to the work of the National Climate Assessment Committee.
Health providers and researchers need environmental data to study and understand the geographic, environmental, and meteorological differences in how extreme events affect disease. Satellite remote sensing of the environment offers a unique vantage point that can fill in the gaps of environmental, spatial, and temporal data for tracking disease. This presentation will demonstrate NASA’s applied science programs efforts to transition from research to operations to benefit society.
Satellite Earth observations present a unique vantage point of the Earth's environment from space, which offers a wealth of health applications for the imaginative investigator. The presentation is directly related to Earth Observing Systems and Global Health Surveillance and will present research results of the remote sensing environmental observations of Earth and health applications, which can contribute to the health research.
As part of NASA's approach and methodology, they have used Earth Observation Systems and Applications for Health Models to provide a method for bridging gaps of environmental, spatial, and temporal data for tracking disease.
This presentation will provide a venue to present results of both research and practice using satellite Earth observations to study weather and its role in health research and the transition to operational end users.
Mixed-phase clouds composed of a mixture of supercooled liquid droplets and ice crystals are found across the globe. They are the dominant cloud type during the colder three-quarters of the year in the Arctic while at lower latitudes, mixed-phase clouds occur are associated with deep convection, synoptic-scale midlatitude weather systems, and orographic clouds. Aerosols by serving both cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei can alter mixed-phase cloud properties, and consequently modulate the regional hydrological cycle. This session invites papers on any of the following or related subjects: (1) characterization of mixed-phase clouds using observations and modeling; (2) process-level understanding of CCN/IN impacts on mixed-phase clouds; (3) assessment of the climatic influence of aerosol–cloud interaction in mixed-phase clouds, especially over the Arctic; (4) evaluation and improvement of mixed-phase clouds in numerical models.
Food security represents a major societal challenge for the coming decades. A growing population increasingly connected through globally integrated markets, rising water and energy use, and a changing climate all impact food supply and demand, resiliency, and price volatility. An extreme weather or climate event can cause food shortages and food insecurity. The vantage point of space provides new sources of information to inform agricultural predictions, resource management decisions, and humanitarian relief planning for vulnerable areas. Earth observing satellites now monitor global precipitation, soil moisture, surface and ground water, temperature, and more. Data assimilation and modeling advances at various scales are improving climate and weather prediction skill. Still, matching all this information to the practical needs of the users remains a challenge. This session includes research related to the advancing science and application of Earth observations for agricultural monitoring and prediction from local to global scales, from farmer decision-making to global food policy, from private industry to humanitarian aid, and everything in between.
Discipline-based research in atmospheric science education is a fairly new field. To encourage discussion and support growth in this area, we welcome preliminary research reports with a 7-minute presentation/7-minute discussion format where audience feedback can be solicited, as well as more polished education findings using the traditional 11-minute talk/3-minute question format.
Bridging social and physical sciences can be challenging when working to understand user needs. And moving between research and operational contexts poses different challenges for physical and social scientists. At its heart, we all work to better understand how to integrate our respective knowledges to learn more about societal impacts and create research and applications that serve society's needs. This session will present issues of linking across disciplines, among experts and trainees, and between research and operations.
This session covers concepts and practices of mapping and modeling integrating atmospheric, hydrologic, and climatic data with GIS and related technologies, demonstrating the relevance of GIS to weather, hydrologic, and climate services. GIS technology gives the user almost limitless potential to convey and contextualize data from different sectors and to provide insight into weather and water phenomena. This session will focus on two application areas: 1) using local and cloud-based tools for the analysis of weather and water data integrated with data from areas such as human demographics, modeling, and disaster planning; and 2) sharing those analyses in web applications such as dashboards, inquiry tools, and stories.
These sessions are devoted to current and next-generation weather radars, with emphasis on radar meteorology science, weather radar applications, weather radar signal processing, weather radar prototype developments, experimental weather radar data collections, and essentially all radar meteorological algorithms. Presentations about advanced radar technologies, including phased array radars, polarimetry, multifunction scan strategies, retrieval algorithms, signal processing for clutter rejection, etc., will be a focus of these sessions. Outcomes could include radar measurements in the context of numerical model assimilation and radar-based short-term forecasts. Example of presentations may include the SENSR initiative, the dual-pol WSR-88D, etc.
The topic of this session is severe convective weather in all of its forms, including lightning, hail, downpours, tornadoes, and violent wind. We welcome papers on research into these phenomena, on predicting them better, and observing them better. This session focuses more on research (basic and applied) rather than impacts on operations.
The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is at the heart of fundamental atmospheric science challenges: (i) cloud–climate feedback (how clouds will respond and impact climate with increased greenhouse gas concentration) is essentially about the interactions between a highly turbulent flow with water phase transitions and radiation, often occurring in the PBL; (ii) the extreme weather and climate change problem is essentially about how deep moist convection, with its roots in the PBL, will respond to a warmer world; (iii) the exchanges of energy, water, and carbon between the atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice are mediated by turbulent fluxes in the PBL; (iv) the depth and mixing of PBL air significantly influences air quality and human health.
Weather forecasts are routinely produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers around the world. The PBL plays a critical role in key weather events. The recent NASA Weather Focus Area community workshop report highlights the importance of the PBL for weather and some key unsolved questions. For example, how does moist convection interact with the PBL and the surface? What are the fundamental mechanisms controlling ABL clouds?
The recent National Academies’ Earth Science Decadal Survey recommended the PBL as a targeted observable priority for incubation studies of future satellite observations. At this stage it is critical for the PBL science community to present and discuss the most recent technology and science developments in the context of space-based observations of the PBL. In this session we welcome presentations on studies that utilize space-based observations of the PBL in the context of weather, air quality and climate. Presentations on future PBL observational systems from space, including ground/air-based developments that could be relevant to future mission concepts, are also welcome.
2:00 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
PM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Leadership from the National Science and Technology Council’s subcommittee for U.S. Group on Earth Observations (USGEO) will discuss the subcommittee’s work with advancing the Administration’s Earth observation priorities. The USGEO intends to strengthen the Earth Observations Enterprise by leveraging the collective strengths of all participants and enhancing the robust interconnections among them to efficiently and effectively advance Federal Government objectives and private sector and academic interests. Through this session, leadership of the USGEO will begin a discussion about the ways in which the Federal Government can support the Earth Observation Enterprise as it coordinates interagency research, operations, and activities related to civil Earth Observations.
Research tells us that climate data and information is better received from a “trusted messenger.” But what makes one a trusted messenger? As climate information providers and communicators, we use sociology, communications and marketing tools to increase "circle of trust" when conveying climate information. These practices help ensure climate information is reaching customers, users, and the general public. This session topic will focus on highlight techniques in communicating climate that meet their audience where their audience is. Abstracts submitted for this session should focus on at least one of the following: 1. strategies used to build your ability as a trusted climate communicator and to reach your audience 2. communication and marketing tools used to help you understand your audience and increase the chances that they will be receptive to your message. 3. how relationship building with other experts who are already considered to be trusted sources for groups can help to increase your reach.
Some types of extreme events are known to produce large and long-lasting anomalies not only locally, in the area of the immediate impact, but also in atmospheric regions thousands of kilometers away. The session invites studies that demonstrate both the downward and upward vertical coupling mechanisms, that is, connections from the upper atmosphere down to the troposphere, and from the troposphere and stratosphere up to the thermosphere and ionosphere. This session will explore two types of extreme events—sudden stratospheric warmings and energetic particle precipitation—and discuss dynamical, thermal, and chemical effects of such events. Contributions on other types of events are also welcome.
The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act (WRFIA) of 2017 calls for NOAA in collaboration with the United States weather industry and academia to develop a tornado warning improvement and extension program (TWIEP). Through this program, the goal is to reduce the loss of life and economic losses from tornadoes through the development and extension of accurate, effective, and timely tornado forecasts, predictions, and warnings, including the prediction of tornadoes beyond 1 hour in advance. This sessions seeks to bring together the weather enterprise (federal, private, and academia) to seek innovative solutions that will one day help the enterprise achieve its goals as stated in the WRFIA. We are asking for presenters from both the physical and social sciences to present work to advance the knowledge base of the weather enterprise and bring focus and clarity on current and future improvements in tornado warning science across all sectors.
This session invites presentations on the economic valuation and assessment of the impact of weather and climate extremes on health as well as cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions to reduce said impacts. We invite presentations that consider the cost to healthcare systems of extremes, health insurance considerations associated with extremes, analyses of avoided costs (damage costs avoided), quantification of human health costs, and other health economics associated with weather and climate such as Value of Information (VoI) studies.
Mentoring programs that focus on supporting the professional growth and development of mentees are becoming a more highly valued tool for integrating, preparing, and retaining students and scientists in educational settings and the workplace. A distinct lack of mentoring can lead to discouragement, isolation, attrition, or worse. Given that students and professionals from diverse ethnic, cultural, gender, and socioeconomic backgrounds are seriously underrepresented in many of the geosciences, mentoring is an increasingly important tool. In this session, we invite those from the academic, government, and private (profit or nonprofit) sectors to introduce and discuss effective mentoring models for people ranging from undergraduate students to professionals in the workplace.
There are many ways to examine the security implications of extreme environmental events and climate change, such as vulnerability of critical infrastructures (a Department of Defense concern) and international security concerns (e.g., studies of linkages between extreme drought in Syria, mass migration of farmers to the cities, and the beginnings of the civil war). Perhaps the most important implication may be to human security, which focuses on individuals and populations rather than nations and groups of nations. An example of this is currently playing out in Puerto Rico, as all aspects of life there continue to be impacted as the island struggles with its recovery from Hurricane Maria. It should be noted that even though the nation-state is not the focus of human security, when these humanitarian disasters occur, there are often national and international security repercussions (the events in Syria and Puerto Rico provide vivid examples). The increases in frequency of extreme environmental events and climatic anomalies expected under global climate change mean that these concerns will only increase in time. Capabilities such as FEWSNET provide good templates for what can be done across multiple agencies and disciplines, but more interdisciplinary research needs to be done to expand upon these as well as build new capabilities. This session gathers practitioners and researchers from multiple disciplines to examine ways to improve our ability to anticipate and react to these events when they occur, but ultimately find ways to become proactive and mitigate these environmental and climatic risks across the globe.
Second part of wind resource assessment session.
This session covers concepts and practices of mapping and modeling integrating atmospheric, hydrologic, and climatic data with GIS and related technologies demonstrating the relevance of GIS to weather, hydrologic, and climate services. GIS technology gives the user almost limitless potential to convey and contextualize data from different sectors and provide insight into weather and water phenomena. This session will focus on two application areas: 1) using local and cloud-based tools for the analysis of weather and water data integrated with data from areas such as human demographics, modeling, and disaster planning; and 2) sharing those analyses in web applications such as dashboards, inquiry tools, and stories.
While many hydroclimate extremes can be explained via internal atmospheric variability, processes that govern the exchange of water and energy exist between the atmosphere and the surface contribute to the development and persistence of extremes. These exchanges are driven by the complex interactions between different vegetation types, soil moisture, surfaces fluxes, precipitation, boundary layer evolution, and upper-air dynamics. Given these processes occur across varying spatial scales, the interconnections between the atmosphere and the surface impact local to global properties of the weather, climate, water, and ecosystems. Further, significant uncertainty exists regarding the future of global hydrological extremes and an improved understanding of the complex interactions between the ecosystem, hydrology and the atmosphere is essential to increased predictability spanning weather, subseasonal to seasonal, and climate scales. This interdisciplinary topic focuses on the numerous interplays between climate, weather, hydrology and ecosystems spanning local to global scales and will include presentations focused on improved understanding of energy and water cycles, the predictability of weather and climate extremes related to weather climate, water, ecosystem dynamics and variability, and the spatial and temporal evolution of their complex interactions. In keeping with the overall theme of the meeting, we encourage submissions highlighting the multidisciplinary nature of these topics.
Large reservoirs provide multiple benefits for water supply and downstream flood reduction. Weather and climate forecasts play a critical role in reservoir operations during extreme events to optimize reservoir storage and reduce downstream flooding. The practice of using forecasts to mitigate downstream flooding is well established and reservoir operators fully consider that information while managing releases through the dam.
Reservoir operators are balancing multiple requirements, reducing downstream flooding, ensuring water supply, increasing water availability, maximizing power generation and, keeping the dam safe. Extreme and remote events challenge both forecaster and operators to quickly determine how to manage designated flood storage and preventing failure of the dam, which include: early releases, increasing spillway releases, and storing water. Incorrect forecasts can magnify the impacts to any one requirement. Interdisciplinary cooperation is necessary to understand the accuracy of the forecasts and improve lead time to optimize operational flood management releases and preventing dam failure.
These sessions are devoted to current and next-generation weather radars, with emphasis on radar meteorology science, weather radar applications, weather radar signal processing, weather radar prototype developments, experimental weather radar data collections, and essentially all radar meteorological algorithms. Presentations about advanced radar technologies, including phased array radars, polarimetry, multifunction scan strategies, retrieval algorithms, signal processing for clutter rejection, etc., will be a focus of these sessions. Outcomes could include radar measurements in the context of numerical model assimilation and radar-based short-term forecasts. Example of presentations may include the SENSR initiative, the dual-pol WSR-88D, etc.
Ceiling and visibility continue to confound many different approaches to prediction. Fog in particular has plagued aviation from the industry’s birth. Other obstructions to visibility include dust, smoke, and volcanic ash. This session will focus on the latest efforts (successful and otherwise) at improving predictions of ceiling and visibility over lead times from minutes to seasons.
Numerical Analysis and Prediction Experiments Involving Observations: Data Impact and Observation Sensitivity Tests—Part II
Observing the Boundary Layer from Space—Part II
3:30 PM-4:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Book Talks @ Authors Corner (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
The session will feature both contributed and invited talks from across the weather and marine enterprise (public, private, academic). The Symposium on Maritime Extreme Weather will solicit papers on the following topics:
Dangerous Storms at Sea
Extratropical and tropical cyclones produce rapidly changing and extreme weather conditions over large areas of the ocean, threatening the safety of life at sea, causing billions of dollars in time lost and ship and cargo damage annually, and damaging coastal communities. However, there remain significant gaps in our understanding of these storms. Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is an important forecast challenge that is receiving increasing attention in operations and research. Less well-known, but also critical, rapid extratropical cyclogenesis at sea presents a unique forecast problem that requires a greater understanding of air–sea interaction and coupled model improvements, particularly in areas such as the heavily traveled intersection of major coastal storm tracks and the Gulf Stream.
Weather Forecast Needs of the Maritime Industry
The maritime industry would benefit from products and services that extend the forecast horizon beyond the present focus on days 0–4; provide probabilistic forecasts of hazards and high waves; and improve prediction of sea ice development, movement, and decay. Additionally, as cargo and cruise ships continue to get larger, carrying ever more goods and passengers, consideration must be given to providing forecasts and hazardous weather warnings that address the challenges such large ships must face. Stronger public–private partnerships within the maritime weather enterprise will help ensure mariners get the best possible forecasts and warning services.
Weather Observations on the High Seas
Strengthening the global ocean observing system (in situ and satellite based) and achieving optimal spatial distribution is an international challenge highlighted by the WMO Marine Meteorology and Oceanography Programme. A more robust engagement with commercial vessel operators is needed to increase the number and quality of weather observations from ships of opportunity, improving forecasts. Efforts to increase international collaboration and the sharing of remotely sensed ocean surface vector winds and altimeter data are needed to better analyze and predict areas of dangerous winds and waves at sea.
Future of Communication and Dissemination Systems for Mariners
Challenges exist in exchanging information among ships, national hydrometeorological centers, and commercial weather providers. Recent incidents at sea demonstrate that such challenges may adversely impact decision-making by mariners. This situation is further exacerbated by a maritime weather infrastructure that remains heavily reliant on decades-old technology for dissemination, such as radiofax and text broadcasts.
Poster presentations on a wide range of topics in the fields of atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and greenhouse gases.
Posters for all EIPT topic areas are welcome.
Poster III: Observing the Atmospheric Boundary Layer
University-themed posters
ARAM Conference posters
While there is a general consensus that hydrologic extremes in the developing world are of great scientific and societal interest, the very limited density of in situ observations makes analysis and monitoring of these extremes very challenging. Luckily, the last five years have seen a new era in the field of satellite rainfall observations - both from the launch of new sensors and in algorithm design. A large family of products is now available with an increasingly diverse range of properties, including longer time-series, novel new algorithms for nowcasting, probabilistic assessments, customisable products for end-users, new geographical areas and new merging techniques. Equally, recent years have seen advances in how we can use satellite rainfall to inform and validate other parameters such as soil moisture or vegetative health (or conversely, how those other products might inform rainfall estimation).
At the same time, there's been transformational change in how remotely sensed weather data is used. Satellite rainfall observations are now directly influencing millions of lives through products such as climate insurance and weather triggered action, particularly across developing countries where weather data can be scarce. Addressing end-user needs is not a trivial challenge. Satellite rainfall scientists must work closely with businesses, national meteorological agencies, NGOs and governments to co-develop products and access the large body of previously inaccessible private ground-based weather data. They are also working closely with social scientists to understand how this information is visualised and used for different needs. In parallel, the private sector are also generating their own innovative products and algorithms. Many challenges remain and the growing use of satellite weather information for decisions mean that it is increasingly important to address them.
This session will address the state of the art across this field including:
- What is the current status of existing operational satellite rainfall products and what are the new products that are about to be launched?
- What is the state of the art for applied satellite rainfall research?
- How can we move from validation to "fitness for purpose"? How does one overcome the challenges of validating merged products for custom uses, especially as different products incorporate different validation data? Is there a need for a standard validation framework?
- How is satellite weather data being used by businesses, NGOs, insurers and governments around the world? How do we optimise these international, interdisciplinary partnerships? What are the logistical challenges in creating them?
- How are non-expert end-users selecting and using satellite products to meet their individual needs? What lessons have been learnt and what challenges remain?
- Greatrex, Helen (greatrex@iri.columbia.edu)
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY USA
- Funk, Chris C. (cfunk@usgs.gov)
- USGS/Earth Resources Observation Systems, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Maidment, Ross (r.i.maidment@reading.ac.uk)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- 353286 Development of a Satellite-Based Near-Real-Time Precipitation Product for Index-Based (Re)Insurance Applications in Central America
- Wang, Li-Pen (li-pen.wang08@imperial.ac.uk)
- Microinsurance Catastrophe Risk Organisation, St Michael, Barbados
- Llabres, Iker (illabres@microrisk.org)
- Microinsurance Catastrophe Risk Organisation, St Michael, Barbados
- Boelsterli, Carlos (cboelsterli@microrisk.org)
- Microinsurance Catastrophe Risk Organisation, St Michael, Barbados
- 350885 Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Products over the Congo Basin
- Nicholson, Sharon E. (snicholson@fsu.edu)
- Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL USA
- 354406 Validation of Satellite- and Gauge-Based Gridded Rainfall Products over Ghana (West Africa)
- Atiah, Winifred (winifred.a.atiah@aims-senegal.org)
- Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
- Amekudzi, Leonard (leonard.amekudzi@gmail.com)
- Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
- Fink, Andreas H. (andreas.fink@kit.edu)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
- Maranan, Marlon (marlon.maranan@kit.edu)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
- Aryee, Jeffrey (jeff.jay8845@gmail.com)
- Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
- 353607 Assessing Fitness for Purpose: A Validation of Ghanaian Satellite Rainfall within the Context of Participatory Agricultural Services and Index Insurance
- Torgbor, Francis (f.torgbor@aims.edu.gh)
- African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Biriwa, Ghana
- Greatrex, Helen (greatrex@iri.columbia.edu)
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY USA
- Lamptey, Patrick (patrickniilantelamptey@yahoo.com)
- Ghana Meteorological Agency, Accra, Ghana
- Stern, Roger (r.d.stern@reading.ac.uk)
- Stats4SD, Reading, United Kingdom
- 349499 Effects of Drop Size Distribution Variability on QPE/QPF in the San Francisco Bay Area
- Behringer, Dalton (dalton.behringer@sjsu.edu)
- San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA USA
- Chiao, Sen (sen.chiao@sjsu.edu)
- San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA USA
- 351604 Challenges and Opportunities of Implementing the National Water Model in Hawaii and Alaska
- Lindsey, Scott D. (scott.lindsey@noaa.gov)
- NWS/Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center, Anchorage, AK USA
- Streubel, David (Dave.Streubel@noaa.gov)
- NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK USA
- Cosgrove, Brian (brian.cosgrove@noaa.gov)
- NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD USA
- Kodama, Kevin (kevin.kodama@noaa.gov)
- National Weather Service, Honolulu, HI USA
- Gochis, David (gochis@ucar.edu)
- FitzGerald, Katelyn (katelynw@ucar.edu)
- 353295 On the Inter-Relationship between Land Surface Air Temperature and Skin Temperature
- Inamdar, Anand K. (anand.inamdar@noaa.gov)
- Lepeer, Ronald (ronnieleeper@cicsnc.org)
As shown on the NIDIS drought portal (
https://www.drought.gov/drought/data-maps-tools/current-conditions) current operational drought monitoring and early warning in the U.S. relies on a combination of the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM; Svoboda et al., 2002) and the Weekly Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) (Palmer, 1965; Heim 2002; 2005). In contrast to the USDM, which relies on a manual, convergence-of-evidence approach, the PDSI is an objective approach that has been attractive for monitoring, early warning, and climate projection (e.g., Abatzoglou et al., 2017; Dai, 2011; Cook et al., 2015)
While the water balance approach encapsulated in PDSI has the advantage that it may be estimated with limited input data, issues with the approach, particularly the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) have been widely reported (e.g., Sheffield et al., 2012). Moreover, the atmospheric-centric formulation of PDSI ignores the feedbacks from groundwater, soils, and vegetation on the drought state. For monitoring and forecasting seasonal to interannual variability of drought, it is critical to capture the effects of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on increased surface resistances that reduce ET primarily though stomatal closure (Milly 2016; Novick et al. 2016). For longer-term climate projections of drought, recent work further suggests that ignoring the stomatal response due to increasing CO2 in PDSI leads to an overestimation of future projected drought area, while other metrics that include actual ET (e.g., P-E) lead to dramatically reduced projections of future drought area (Swann et al., 2016).
There have been attempts to develop so-called “objective blends” that can mimic the USDM (e.g., Xia et al., 2014), but these efforts do not accurately reflect the response of vegetation to drought stress or the stomatal responses because the land surface models used in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) do not include prognostic vegetation states or represent VPD feedbacks and their controls on stomatal conductance. Moreover, from a monitoring perspective, these models often do not reflect rapidly developing droughts like thermal remote sensing-based indices such as the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI; Otkin et al., 2013). They also do not take advantage of other remotely sensed and in situ observations such as Soil Moisture from ground-based networks and SMAP and terrestrial water storage from GRACE.
With this context, the proposed theme for the Third NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force is Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Projection in the 21st Century—Beyond PDSI. We seek an objective drought index that reflects the state of drought science and includes modern observational systems and models. Ultimately, a well-informed and objective declaration of the state of drought must integrate various measures. We invite submissions related to all aspects of drought monitoring, early warning and projection.
Global and regional quantitative precipitation estimations (QPEs) are very important for understanding climate variability and hydrometeorological cycles, improving flash flood and weather forecast, effectively managing the usage of earth's freshwater resources, detecting the natural disasters, and other hydrometeorological applications. However, obtaining accurate QPEs is a big challenge in many areas of the world, due to sparse gauge networks and complex terrains. Recent advances in radar and satellite remote sensing of precipitation progress rapidly with the aims of providing accurate and high-resolution precipitation estimates, accurate flash flood forecasting, understanding of causation and geophysical process of these natural hazards. This session invites high quality, original research contributions from radar and satellite meteorology, flash flood forecasting, hazards monitoring, and related fields that research hydrometeorological hazards.
The precipitation session focuses on precipitation observation, modeling, estimation, and applications of in-situ and remotely sensed precipitation products. Topics include, but are not limited to (1) precipitation processes and modeling; (2) advances in remote sensing of precipitation from satellite and radar platforms; (3) recent development pertaining to fusion and downscaling of precipitation products; (4) assimilation of precipitation and precipitation-related variables in NWP model; (5) impacts of improving precipitation estimates on hydrologic and land surface modeling; (6) uncertainty of sub-daily precipitation observations on hydrologic design and modeling.
Over the last several decades, substantial progress has been achieved in probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting theories and applications. However, significant challenges still exist in assessing the uncertainty of complex hydrometeorological processes and improving the quality of hydrometeorological predictions, especially high-impact hydrometeorological events. This session solicits papers that focus on, but are not limited to, (1) addressing uncertainty in hydrometeorological forecasting from a number of sources in both offline and couple systems, and (2) innovative methods in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting. The former might include uncertainties in forcing data (e.g., quantitative precipitation estimation, meteorological forcing data), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture, heterogeneous geographical conditions), parameters, model structure (physics), and calibration. The latter emphasizes integrated ensemble methods to improve individual hydrologic and atmospheric models, coupled atmosphere–land–hydrology systems, verification methods to evaluate probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting, and technologies to process systematic errors of hydrometeorological forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. Work on topics of statistical postprocessing of hydrometeorological model output and assessing the uncertainty of postprocessing are also encouraged.
5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Awards Banquet Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
99th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Thursday, 10 January 2019
7:30 AM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
AMS Information Desk (Thurs)
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Member Services Desk (Thurs)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Quiet Room (Thursday)
Location: West 206 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Registration (Thurs)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
7:30 AM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Speaker Ready Room (Thurs)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
An invited session of experts will discuss some vital and varied, but not-so-visible, roles of spectrum frequency allocation which effects current and future environmental satellite systems and the water, weather & climate enterprise. Areas of possible discussion are: Weather radar, remote sensing impacts, GOES communications, DCS, Small satellites, radiosondes, frequency-sharing proposals in the NOAAPort band, and International Impacts.
Papers for the Monsoonal Heavy Rain in East Asia Session are solicited on topics related to Monsoonal heavy rainfall in East Asia, particularly topics discussing physical processes to help understand, predict and build resilience to extreme weather events. Papers on both observations and numerical simulations of East Asia monsoon, hazardous weather events, MCS, MCV, LLJ, orographic precipitation, are encouraged. Overviews of East Asia summer monsoon and its relations to heavy rainfall events are particularly encouraged to highlight current meteorological understanding and identify challenges. Papers on past and future heavy rainfall field programs in East Asia are also encouraged.
This session highlights projects in the private sector, government, and academia that have used Python software libraries to power applications utilizing artificial intelligence, machine learning, and other data science techniques for earth, oceanic, and atmospheric science problems. The presenters are encouraged to discuss the details of how they have implemented these systems and discuss both their successes and the challenges they have overcome or still face. Following the presentations, there will be a panel discussion featuring all of the presenters where they can answer more questions from the audience about incorporating and scaling AI systems. If there are a large number of submissions to this session, then a poster session will be added following the oral session to highlight other scalable AI and Python systems.
Aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions have significant influences on natural climate variability and are also one of the largest uncertainties in the estimate of anthropogenic climate forcing. This session seeks presentations of recent research work that advances the understanding of how various aerosol–cloud interactions impact the local and global radiative energy budget, as well as how aerosol–radiation interactions affect and are affected by cloud systems, global circulation patterns, and climate. We welcome discussions related to i) how microphysical interactions between aerosol and cloud modulate the cloud radiative properties and surface and/or atmosphere energy budgets; ii) how the direct and semidirect radiative effects modify mesoscale and synoptic-scale weather systems and climate, including, but are not limited to, wave systems, monsoons, tropical cyclones, and mesoscale convective complexes; and iii) novel measurement (remote sensing and in situ) and modeling techniques to quantify the impacts of aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions.
Though open fires emit a suite of pollutants into the atmosphere, the chemical and physical processes that dictate the chemical evolution of smoke are only poorly understood. As a result, there have been several recent campaigns focused on particular aspects of the atmospheric evolution of smoke. We welcome presentations that describe recent advances in our understanding of these processes based on field, laboratory or satellite observations. We also welcome modeling studies across various spatial and temporal scales.
A typology is a tool of categorization and classification, one that makes complex parts of a process or knowledge base clearer. This session will highlight a new endeavor to create a typology for drought decisions that emphasizes the human and social dimensions of drought preparation, response, and adaptation. The goal is to develop and refine key conceptual categories that influence nonmeteorological factors affecting drought decision-making. Questions to address include the following: What are the types of drought decisions and who makes these decisions? Under which legal and regulatory mechanisms and constraints are they made? What factors determine the decision space in which an individual operates? What is the interaction among drought decisions in a given region or watershed? To what extent do decision-makers enable or constrain one another’s decisions? Are there common explanatory factors that explain these interactions?
Global and regional quantitative precipitation estimations (QPEs) are very important for understanding climate variability and hydrometeorological cycles, improving flash flood and weather forecast, effectively managing the usage of earth's freshwater resources, detecting the natural disasters, and other hydrometeorological applications. However, obtaining accurate QPEs is a big challenge in many areas of the world, due to sparse gauge networks and complex terrains. Recent advances in radar and satellite remote sensing of precipitation progress rapidly with the aims of providing accurate and high-resolution precipitation estimates, accurate flash flood forecasting, understanding of causation and geophysical process of these natural hazards. This session invites high quality, original research contributions from radar and satellite meteorology, flash flood forecasting, hazards monitoring, and related fields that research hydrometeorological hazards.
Presentations in this session will explore general software engineering best practices and technologies behind successful cyberinfrastructure implementations.
The precipitation session focuses on precipitation observation, modeling, estimation, and applications of in-situ and remotely sensed precipitation products. Topics include, but are not limited to (1) precipitation processes and modeling; (2) advances in remote sensing of precipitation from satellite and radar platforms; (3) recent development pertaining to fusion and downscaling of precipitation products; (4) assimilation of precipitation and precipitation-related variables in NWP model; (5) impacts of improving precipitation estimates on hydrologic and land surface modeling; (6) uncertainty of sub-daily precipitation observations on hydrologic design and modeling.
Extreme weather events create significant impacts to the nation’s highway system, from public safety and maintenance costs to lost productivity and commerce. In addition to operational response to weather impacts, efforts are needed to build resilience for future events. At the same time, the transportation industry is experiencing rapid modernization through the development of technologies in automated vehicles, connected vehicles, decision support systems, data sharing, communication, and cloud computing. This session explores technologies, techniques, and interdisciplinary approaches for identifying, forecasting, and responding to extreme transportation weather events for the benefit of the traveling public, commercial interests, and those who operate and maintain the transportation system.
Communicating climate change information to the public and to policy makers can be a challenge. Although climate scientists thoroughly understand the processes, conveying the information to non-scientists may leave them confused. Broadcast meteorologists specialize in presenting complex issues to the public in a concise and easy to understand manner. Although we are not the foremost experts in the science, perhaps we can provide examples of best practices for explaining climate science to the public and to politicians. We also welcome abstracts focusing on communicating climate science to young people.
New research across multiple areas of climate science is emphasizing the potential hazards, and opportunities for prediction, associated with exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures. While such extremes are an anticipated climate change outcome, the science surrounding our ability to describe, explain and predict the climate hazards associated with these anomalous ocean conditions is still rapidly evolving. We welcome talks looking at observed or modeled analyses of oceanic temperature extremes or marine heat waves and the associated climatic hazards affecting marine ecosystems (fisheries) or terrestrial environments (droughts floods hurricanes). Also of interest would be presentations looking at relevant modes of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, studies treating the predictability of such extremes on seasonal or decadal time scales, and analyses discussing the design and implementation of early warning and information systems capable of coping with future extreme SST states. As the earth warms, more extreme sea surface temperatures appear likely. In many ways, our current modeling and monitoring systems appear well positioned to help us cope with these extremes, mainstreaming climate adaptation through enhanced climate services. This session will seek to address multiple aspects of such systems in one integrative set of presentations.
Observing the Boundary Layer from Space—Part III
Extreme space weather events can occur at any time but are more likely when solar activity is at its greatest over the 11-year solar cycle. In conjunction with the 2019 annual meeting theme, this joint Space Weather–ARAM session intends to examine extreme space weather events and their effects on technologies and people operating from the stratosphere to low-Earth orbit. This includes activities such as commercial aviation, commercial space tourism, satellite launch and operation, and astronaut operations. All these activities can be impacted by solar flares, solar energetic particles, solar radiation storms, and coronal mass ejections, resulting in increased exposure to radiation, inaccurate Global Navigation Satellite System (such as GPS) signals, and degraded or blocked high-frequency radio communications.
9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Meeting with Sustainable Cities Network of Arizona
Location: Estrella (Sheraton Hotel )
9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Exhibit Hall (Thurs)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Meet President Roger M. Wakimoto (Thurs)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
10:30 AM-11:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Papers for the Monsoonal Heavy Rain in East Asia Session are solicited on topics related to Monsoonal heavy rainfall in East Asia, particularly topics discussing physical processes to help understand, predict and build resilience to extreme weather events. Papers on both observations and numerical simulations of East Asia monsoon, hazardous weather events, MCS, MCV, LLJ, orographic precipitation, are encouraged. Overviews of East Asia summer monsoon and its relations to heavy rainfall events are particularly encouraged to highlight current meteorological understanding and identify challenges. Papers on past and future heavy rainfall field programs in East Asia are also encouraged.
Advancing our understanding of the dynamics and composition of the middle atmosphere in the context of the changing climate requires accurate knowledge of the global state of the atmosphere spanning time scales from daily to multidecadal. Individual and “merged” datasets, both satellite and conventional, when used together with modern atmospheric reanalyses afford an opportunity to study variability and long-term changes of the climate system, including stratospheric composition and, at the same time, to identify the mechanisms for that variability. In particular, over the last decade, reanalysis datasets have become a widely used tool for addressing multiple questions in weather and climate sciences. Observational datasets and reanalyses complement each other: observations not only provide the input for reanalyses but also serve as a benchmark for their evaluation. Reanalyses are in turn powerful tools for interpreting the often sparsely sampled data in the context of the meteorological conditions. Although reanalyses are uniquely valuable tools for analyzing long-term data records, their use in identifying and assessing possible trends is complicated by changes in the observing systems used for data inputs; understanding how reanalyses can best be used to further trend studies is a challenging but important area of research.
The session welcomes contributions on new developments, evaluation, intercomparison, and applications of reanalyses and long-term observational datasets that are relevant to the middle atmosphere. We encourage contributions using reanalyses in conjunction with satellite data and long-term “merged” datasets, and studies using novel methods to compare reanalyses with observations, as well as studies exploring the use of reanalyses and long-term datasets in assessing trends and the mechanisms causing them.
Aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions have significant influences on natural climate variability and are also one of the largest uncertainties in the estimate of anthropogenic climate forcing. This session seeks presentations of recent research work that advances the understanding of how various aerosol–cloud interactions impact the local and global radiative energy budget, as well as how aerosol–radiation interactions affect and are affected by cloud systems, global circulation patterns, and climate. We welcome discussions related to i) how microphysical interactions between aerosol and cloud modulate the cloud radiative properties and surface and/or atmosphere energy budgets; ii) how the direct and semidirect radiative effects modify mesoscale and synoptic-scale weather systems and climate, including, but are not limited to, wave systems, monsoons, tropical cyclones, and mesoscale convective complexes; and iii) novel measurement (remote sensing and in situ) and modeling techniques to quantify the impacts of aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions.
Though open fires emit a suite of pollutants into the atmosphere, the chemical and physical processes that dictate the chemical evolution of smoke are only poorly understood. As a result, there have been several recent campaigns focused on particular aspects of the atmospheric evolution of smoke. We welcome presentations that describe recent advances in our understanding of these processes based on field, laboratory or satellite observations. We also welcome modeling studies across various spatial and temporal scales.
The dynamic and evolving nature of weather dangers necessitates a clear understanding of how risk communication might can be employed in a variety of modalities, mechanisms, and circumstances. Likewise, successful communication is dependent on the ways people perceive risk and their abilities to make decisions. This session will focus on research taken from a variety of weather events to encourage discussion about the content, context, and complexities of risk.
Global and regional quantitative precipitation estimations (QPEs) are very important for understanding climate variability and hydrometeorological cycles, improving flash flood and weather forecast, effectively managing the usage of earth's freshwater resources, detecting the natural disasters, and other hydrometeorological applications. However, obtaining accurate QPEs is a big challenge in many areas of the world, due to sparse gauge networks and complex terrains. Recent advances in radar and satellite remote sensing of precipitation progress rapidly with the aims of providing accurate and high-resolution precipitation estimates, accurate flash flood forecasting, understanding of causation and geophysical process of these natural hazards. This session invites high quality, original research contributions from radar and satellite meteorology, flash flood forecasting, hazards monitoring, and related fields that research hydrometeorological hazards.
Presentations in this session will explore general software engineering best practices and technologies behind successful cyberinfrastructure implementations.
The precipitation session focuses on precipitation observation, modeling, estimation, and applications of in-situ and remotely sensed precipitation products. Topics include, but are not limited to (1) precipitation processes and modeling; (2) advances in remote sensing of precipitation from satellite and radar platforms; (3) recent development pertaining to fusion and downscaling of precipitation products; (4) assimilation of precipitation and precipitation-related variables in NWP model; (5) impacts of improving precipitation estimates on hydrologic and land surface modeling; (6) uncertainty of sub-daily precipitation observations on hydrologic design and modeling.
Extreme weather events create significant impacts to the nation’s highway system, from public safety and maintenance costs to lost productivity and commerce. In addition to operational response to weather impacts, efforts are needed to build resilience for future events. At the same time, the transportation industry is experiencing rapid modernization through the development of technologies in automated vehicles, connected vehicles, decision support systems, data sharing, communication, and cloud computing. This session explores technologies, techniques, and interdisciplinary approaches for identifying, forecasting, and responding to extreme transportation weather events for the benefit of the traveling public, commercial interests, and those who operate and maintain the transportation system.
The agility and ability of the private sector to advance technology and science at rates faster than the public sector has long been a great advantage for industry. As the Weather Enterprise has evolved and companies developed their own observing and numerical modeling systems that provide tailored products and services to customers it would be ideal for public sector entities to learn of the opportunities to interact with private industry in ventures that will advance the state of the science in meteorology. This session seeks presentations that show the economic or cost benefit analysis of private and public sector partnerships advancing the weather, water, and climate enterprise. During this session, we want to hear from both industry and public sectors of examples of innovations developed in the private sector that have benefited public organizations. Univ. researchers that have done this type of economic analysis research are welcome to submit to this session as well. What’s been the model that’s made that partnership work and thrive in a highly competitive environment?
Imbalances among geography, ecology, economy, society and institutions are compromising the future sustainability of cities. Rapid demographic growth, economic expansion, and the increasing environmental footprint of cities have triggered dynamics that institutions are unable to manage effectively. There are now more than 37 megacities – cities with populations of more than 10 million inhabitants – and more than half of urban populations are concentrated in cities with at least one million inhabitants. Furthermore, most cities are located in areas highly vulnerable to disasters, with cities in less-developed regions both at higher risk of exposure to disaster and more vulnerable to disaster-related economic losses and mortality. There is a pressing need for new tools and integrated approaches that strengthen city governance to reduce disaster risk and protect human, economic, and environmental assets. Earth observation data has emerged as an important resource for monitoring environmental hazards, quantifying risk and providing complex visualizations on the interconnectedness of populations, key infrastructure, and climate-related processes. For example, new research and tools are using remote sensing imagery to delineate human settlements as well as the locations of critical infrastructure, e.g., roads, highways, bridges. Thus, Earth observations are helping city decision-makers to address disaster risk and develop long-term plans in a consistent and systematic way. This session will explore how Earth observations are being applied at the city scale, particularly when they are integrated with information about the cities’ economic, physical and social systems. Specifically, the session will examine how remote sensing and geospatial data, and Earth system modeling, can enhance local organizations' planning and operations. This session is seeking submissions that consider the following: 1) Methods for advancing the application of Earth observation data, models and tools for the benefit of cities at short-term (e.g., air quality, water quality, disaster response) and longer-term scales (e.g., infrastructure planning, transportation policy); 2) Research combining data, models, and methods derived from both social science and physical science to highlight the interlinkages between these systems and improve understanding of vulnerability and exposure within cities; and 3) Examples of programmatic and technical approaches that build predictive capacity within city institutions and local networks by harnessing Earth observations.
Numerical weather prediction models are perhaps the most fundamental tool in weather forecasting. This session will address how recent progress in deterministic and ensemble numerical weather prediction, data assimilation, postprocessing of NWP output, and validation of NWP models leads to better prediction of weather that affects aviation, range, and aerospace operations.
Field Experiments: Observational and Assimilation Results—Part II
Observing the Boundary Layer from Space—Part IV
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Come learn about and participate in a panel discussion, moderated by AMS Deputy Executive Director Bill Hooke, that will focus on how we can develop a shared future vision and clear set of actions across the earth, space, and environmental sciences to expand research assessment to explicitly include, recognize, and reward actions that advance open science, broad communication, and public engagement.
12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Daily Weather Briefings (Thurs)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
1:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
1:00 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Tour of Riparian Preserve at Water Ranch
1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Walter Orr Robert Lecture
1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Papers for the Monsoonal Heavy Rain in East Asia Session are solicited on topics related to Monsoonal heavy rainfall in East Asia, particularly topics discussing physical processes to help understand, predict and build resilience to extreme weather events. Papers on both observations and numerical simulations of East Asia monsoon, hazardous weather events, MCS, MCV, LLJ, orographic precipitation, are encouraged. Overviews of East Asia summer monsoon and its relations to heavy rainfall events are particularly encouraged to highlight current meteorological understanding and identify challenges. Papers on past and future heavy rainfall field programs in East Asia are also encouraged.
As shown on the NIDIS drought portal (
https://www.drought.gov/drought/data-maps-tools/current-conditions) current operational drought monitoring and early warning in the U.S. relies on a combination of the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM; Svoboda et al., 2002) and the Weekly Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) (Palmer, 1965; Heim 2002; 2005). In contrast to the USDM, which relies on a manual, convergence-of-evidence approach, the PDSI is an objective approach that has been attractive for monitoring, early warning, and climate projection (e.g., Abatzoglou et al., 2017; Dai, 2011; Cook et al., 2015)
While the water balance approach encapsulated in PDSI has the advantage that it may be estimated with limited input data, issues with the approach, particularly the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) have been widely reported (e.g., Sheffield et al., 2012). Moreover, the atmospheric-centric formulation of PDSI ignores the feedbacks from groundwater, soils, and vegetation on the drought state. For monitoring and forecasting seasonal to interannual variability of drought, it is critical to capture the effects of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on increased surface resistances that reduce ET primarily though stomatal closure (Milly 2016; Novick et al. 2016). For longer-term climate projections of drought, recent work further suggests that ignoring the stomatal response due to increasing CO2 in PDSI leads to an overestimation of future projected drought area, while other metrics that include actual ET (e.g., P-E) lead to dramatically reduced projections of future drought area (Swann et al., 2016).
There have been attempts to develop so-called “objective blends” that can mimic the USDM (e.g., Xia et al., 2014), but these efforts do not accurately reflect the response of vegetation to drought stress or the stomatal responses because the land surface models used in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) do not include prognostic vegetation states or represent VPD feedbacks and their controls on stomatal conductance. Moreover, from a monitoring perspective, these models often do not reflect rapidly developing droughts like thermal remote sensing-based indices such as the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI; Otkin et al., 2013). They also do not take advantage of other remotely sensed and in situ observations such as Soil Moisture from ground-based networks and SMAP and terrestrial water storage from GRACE.
With this context, the proposed theme for the Third NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force is Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Projection in the 21st Century—Beyond PDSI. We seek an objective drought index that reflects the state of drought science and includes modern observational systems and models. Ultimately, a well-informed and objective declaration of the state of drought must integrate various measures. We invite submissions related to all aspects of drought monitoring, early warning and projection.
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of variability of the tropical lower stratosphere on monthly to interannual time scales. The oscillation consists of alternating downward propagating easterly and westerly shear zones, with a mean period of about 28 months. While the QBO has been observed for over 60 years and its basic mechanism is understood, it still remains a modeling challenge for many general circulation models (GCMs). There is evidence that the QBO affects the tropical troposphere and also the stratosphere and troposphere at higher latitudes, via teleconnections. Since the QBO is itself highly predictable, these teleconnections can lead to increased predictability on seasonal and subseasonal time scales in these regions, for example, of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or of tropical precipitation associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). During the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16, the regular QBO cycle was disrupted by an anomalous upward displacement of the prevailing westerly phase and the emergence of easterlies near 40 hPa; this was the first interruption of the QBO in the observed record. This interruption, together with increasing greenhouse gases and warming sea surface temperatures, prompt questions about how the QBO and its impacts may change in the future. In this session, we invite abstracts related to all aspects of the QBO, including modeling and predictability of the QBO, climate change and the QBO, the 2015/16 QBO disruption, and the impacts of the QBO on other regions of the atmosphere.
In Earth’s atmosphere, cold clouds exist as cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere, polar stratospheric clouds in the cold wintertime polar stratosphere, and noctilucent clouds in the summer mesopause region. The life cycles of these clouds and their roles in atmospheric chemistry and climate are largely influenced by atmospheric dynamics, but their formation very much depends on aerosol microphysical processes like deliquescence, efflorescence, homogeneous freezing, or heterogeneous ice nucleation. A detailed understanding of these processes and their representation in cloud and climate models is still lacking. This session welcomes contributions from laboratory experiments elucidating cold cloud microphysics, modeling studies developing and applying microphysics parameterizations, and in situ and remote sensing measurements investigating cold cloud microphysics and providing data for constraining model parameterizations of cold cloud microphysics.
Though open fires emit a suite of pollutants into the atmosphere, the chemical and physical processes that dictate the chemical evolution of smoke are only poorly understood. As a result, there have been several recent campaigns focused on particular aspects of the atmospheric evolution of smoke. We welcome presentations that describe recent advances in our understanding of these processes based on field, laboratory or satellite observations. We also welcome modeling studies across various spatial and temporal scales.
The precipitation session focuses on precipitation observation, modeling, estimation, and applications of in-situ and remotely sensed precipitation products. Topics include, but are not limited to (1) precipitation processes and modeling; (2) advances in remote sensing of precipitation from satellite and radar platforms; (3) recent development pertaining to fusion and downscaling of precipitation products; (4) assimilation of precipitation and precipitation-related variables in NWP model; (5) impacts of improving precipitation estimates on hydrologic and land surface modeling; (6) uncertainty of sub-daily precipitation observations on hydrologic design and modeling.
The tropical Americas, including the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Central America, and portions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and North and South America, are uniquely positioned to serve as the pulse of climate change and climate variability. In fact, the Central American region is the most prominent tropical “HotSpot” identified by the Regional Climate Change Index, but global climate model biases are large in this region. Climate extremes such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, and tropical cyclones can lead to large socioeconomic impacts in the IAS region. The region also plays a vital role in weather, climate, and extreme events on adjacent continents, including North America. Therefore, it is of foremost importance to expand our observational record to understand climate extremes in and around the tropical Americas region. The lack of observations, both spatially and temporally, in the tropical Americas is a major hindrance to resolving climate model biases, as we are unable to reliably constrain and evaluate simulations with the observed climate extremes. There is a strong need for a more comprehensive, end-to-end approach for climate extreme assessments at a regional scale including better integration of paleoclimatic evidence, atmospheric and oceanic observations, physical understanding, model evaluation, and projections.
This session seeks contributions to increase our understanding of climate extremes in this region in the past, present, and future using observations, paleoclimate proxies, and model simulations. Paralleling the theme of the annual meeting, we especially encourage contributions with an Interdisciplinary approach to paleoclimate, oceanography, and atmospheric science activities to address climate extremes in the Tropical Americas, and from International partners in the region.
The agility and ability of the private sector to advance technology and science at rates faster than the public sector has long been a great advantage for industry. As the Weather Enterprise has evolved and companies developed their own observing and numerical modeling systems that provide tailored products and services to customers it would be ideal for public sector entities to learn of the opportunities to interact with private industry in ventures that will advance the state of the science in meteorology. This session seeks presentations that show the economic or cost benefit analysis of private and public sector partnerships advancing the weather, water, and climate enterprise. During this session, we want to hear from both industry and public sectors of examples of innovations developed in the private sector that have benefited public organizations. Univ. researchers that have done this type of economic analysis research are welcome to submit to this session as well. What’s been the model that’s made that partnership work and thrive in a highly competitive environment?
Land use and land cover change (LULC) is shown to have dramatic impacts on local and regional climate. Physical changes to land surfaces manifest in the form of deforestation/reforestation, wildfires and controlled burns, agricultural practices, mining activities, expansion of impervious surfaces, and greenbelting in urban areas. Through redistribution of water, changes to the surface energy budget, modification of surface roughness, alteration of lower tropospheric biogeochemistry, and other anthropogenic effects, rapid changes in climate regimes occur. A primary means of quantifying resultant anomalies is through the utilization of high-resolution, numerical prediction models such as WRF and its variants (ARW, FIRE, etc.). This session serves as a platform to disseminate research that investigates the impact of LULC on climate across multiple spatio-temporal scales via high resolution, numerical prediction models. Research on best practices and emerging methods in application and implementation of LULC are also welcome, as no uniform methodology exists in the current literature.
This session highlights advances in the technology and techniques used for probabilistic and deterministic decision support in aviation, range, and aerospace operations.
Numerical Analysis and Prediction Experiments Involving Observations: Data Impact and Observation Sensitivity Tests—Part III
The open availability and wide accessibility of scientific data sets is becoming the norm for 21st century science. Numerous repositories of scientific data enable researchers to discover, understand, and build upon previous work at greater scales than was previously possible. Policy pressures, technical developments, and social norms are all likewise pushing scientific communities in the direction of wider data availability. Many challenges, however, still impede the use and understanding of scientific data. This session invites contributions that discuss new or ongoing work to increase the utility of scientific data collections online. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to, data discovery systems, metadata standards and processes, data policy initiatives, data preservation approaches, data stewardship user stories, and data repository developments.
3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
PM Coffee Break (Thurs)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Papers for the Monsoonal Heavy Rain in East Asia Session are solicited on topics related to Monsoonal heavy rainfall in East Asia, particularly topics discussing physical processes to help understand, predict and build resilience to extreme weather events. Papers on both observations and numerical simulations of East Asia monsoon, hazardous weather events, MCS, MCV, LLJ, orographic precipitation, are encouraged. Overviews of East Asia summer monsoon and its relations to heavy rainfall events are particularly encouraged to highlight current meteorological understanding and identify challenges. Papers on past and future heavy rainfall field programs in East Asia are also encouraged.
As shown on the NIDIS drought portal (
https://www.drought.gov/drought/data-maps-tools/current-conditions) current operational drought monitoring and early warning in the U.S. relies on a combination of the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM; Svoboda et al., 2002) and the Weekly Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) (Palmer, 1965; Heim 2002; 2005). In contrast to the USDM, which relies on a manual, convergence-of-evidence approach, the PDSI is an objective approach that has been attractive for monitoring, early warning, and climate projection (e.g., Abatzoglou et al., 2017; Dai, 2011; Cook et al., 2015)
While the water balance approach encapsulated in PDSI has the advantage that it may be estimated with limited input data, issues with the approach, particularly the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) have been widely reported (e.g., Sheffield et al., 2012). Moreover, the atmospheric-centric formulation of PDSI ignores the feedbacks from groundwater, soils, and vegetation on the drought state. For monitoring and forecasting seasonal to interannual variability of drought, it is critical to capture the effects of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on increased surface resistances that reduce ET primarily though stomatal closure (Milly 2016; Novick et al. 2016). For longer-term climate projections of drought, recent work further suggests that ignoring the stomatal response due to increasing CO2 in PDSI leads to an overestimation of future projected drought area, while other metrics that include actual ET (e.g., P-E) lead to dramatically reduced projections of future drought area (Swann et al., 2016).
There have been attempts to develop so-called “objective blends” that can mimic the USDM (e.g., Xia et al., 2014), but these efforts do not accurately reflect the response of vegetation to drought stress or the stomatal responses because the land surface models used in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) do not include prognostic vegetation states or represent VPD feedbacks and their controls on stomatal conductance. Moreover, from a monitoring perspective, these models often do not reflect rapidly developing droughts like thermal remote sensing-based indices such as the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI; Otkin et al., 2013). They also do not take advantage of other remotely sensed and in situ observations such as Soil Moisture from ground-based networks and SMAP and terrestrial water storage from GRACE.
With this context, the proposed theme for the Third NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force is Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Projection in the 21st Century—Beyond PDSI. We seek an objective drought index that reflects the state of drought science and includes modern observational systems and models. Ultimately, a well-informed and objective declaration of the state of drought must integrate various measures. We invite submissions related to all aspects of drought monitoring, early warning and projection.
The coming decade is expected to bring a continuing decline in the impact of ozone-depleting substances on the composition of the middle atmosphere, concurrent with an increasing influence of changes in greenhouse gases. A sustained and reliable observing system is essential for quantification of these changes and their impacts in the middle atmosphere and more broadly. The future evolution of the current observing system, and its suitability for meeting high-priority scientific needs, both long-standing and newly emerging, is the focus of this session.
The last 10–15 years arguably represent a "golden age" for spaceborne observations of the middle atmosphere, with at peak 12 limb or occultation sounding instruments operating on eight satellites. These years have also witnessed a significant increase in the number and capabilities of operational nadir sounding instruments providing radiance observations that inform meteorological reanalyses, and the emergence of new temperature profile observations from GNSS radio occultation. Although prospects for future nadir and GNSS sounders are clear and robust, the future for limb and occultation sounders is less assured, with the only confirmed upcoming instrument, from any country or agency, being the ultraviolet OMPS-Limb instruments planned for the JPSS 2 and 3 missions, mainly measuring ozone and aerosol. This looming "gap" in limb sounding observations has received much attention within the community, and concerns about it have been raised in several international reports and studies.
At the same time, there now exist diverse capabilities for making in situ and airborne or ground-based remote sounding observations of the middle atmosphere. A rich database of such measurements continues to grow, both in the form of sustained long-term observations and more episodic measurement campaigns. However, as with the spaceborne observations, increasing pressure on funding agency budgets, particularly in the light of increasing focus on Earth science issues beyond atmospheric composition, has placed some of these observations in jeopardy.
This session will provide an opportunity to air the multifaceted issues surrounding future evolution of the observing system, the possibilities for filling looming gaps, and the routes to turning those possibilities into reality. In the case of spaceborne observations, the recent release of the 2018 NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey, which listed such measurements as one of the potential foci for a new "Earth Explorer" program, makes this a particularly timely session for the AMS Middle Atmosphere meeting.
We solicit papers covering all aspects of this topic, including papers assessing the potential scientific impacts of observation gaps, those articulating quantified objectives that require new or continued observations in order to be met, and those outlining potential new measurement approaches or instruments (especially instruments enabled by newly developed technologies). Papers describing OSSE-like quantification of measurement requirements are particularly welcome.
In Earth’s atmosphere, cold clouds exist as cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere, polar stratospheric clouds in the cold wintertime polar stratosphere, and noctilucent clouds in the summer mesopause region. The life cycles of these clouds and their roles in atmospheric chemistry and climate are largely influenced by atmospheric dynamics, but their formation very much depends on aerosol microphysical processes like deliquescence, efflorescence, homogeneous freezing, or heterogeneous ice nucleation. A detailed understanding of these processes and their representation in cloud and climate models is still lacking. This session welcomes contributions from laboratory experiments elucidating cold cloud microphysics, modeling studies developing and applying microphysics parameterizations, and in situ and remote sensing measurements investigating cold cloud microphysics and providing data for constraining model parameterizations of cold cloud microphysics.
Though open fires emit a suite of pollutants into the atmosphere, the chemical and physical processes that dictate the chemical evolution of smoke are only poorly understood. As a result, there have been several recent campaigns focused on particular aspects of the atmospheric evolution of smoke. We welcome presentations that describe recent advances in our understanding of these processes based on field, laboratory or satellite observations. We also welcome modeling studies across various spatial and temporal scales.
While there is a general consensus that hydrologic extremes in the developing world are of great scientific and societal interest, the very limited density of in situ observations makes analysis and monitoring of these extremes very challenging. Luckily, the last five years have seen a new era in the field of satellite rainfall observations - both from the launch of new sensors and in algorithm design. A large family of products is now available with an increasingly diverse range of properties, including longer time-series, novel new algorithms for nowcasting, probabilistic assessments, customisable products for end-users, new geographical areas and new merging techniques. Equally, recent years have seen advances in how we can use satellite rainfall to inform and validate other parameters such as soil moisture or vegetative health (or conversely, how those other products might inform rainfall estimation).
At the same time, there's been transformational change in how remotely sensed weather data is used. Satellite rainfall observations are now directly influencing millions of lives through products such as climate insurance and weather triggered action, particularly across developing countries where weather data can be scarce. Addressing end-user needs is not a trivial challenge. Satellite rainfall scientists must work closely with businesses, national meteorological agencies, NGOs and governments to co-develop products and access the large body of previously inaccessible private ground-based weather data. They are also working closely with social scientists to understand how this information is visualised and used for different needs. In parallel, the private sector are also generating their own innovative products and algorithms. Many challenges remain and the growing use of satellite weather information for decisions mean that it is increasingly important to address them.
This session will address the state of the art across this field including:
- What is the current status of existing operational satellite rainfall products and what are the new products that are about to be launched?
- What is the state of the art for applied satellite rainfall research?
- How can we move from validation to "fitness for purpose"? How does one overcome the challenges of validating merged products for custom uses, especially as different products incorporate different validation data? Is there a need for a standard validation framework?
- How is satellite weather data being used by businesses, NGOs, insurers and governments around the world? How do we optimise these international, interdisciplinary partnerships? What are the logistical challenges in creating them?
- How are non-expert end-users selecting and using satellite products to meet their individual needs? What lessons have been learnt and what challenges remain?
- Greatrex, Helen (greatrex@iri.columbia.edu)
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY USA
- Funk, Chris C. (cfunk@usgs.gov)
- USGS/Earth Resources Observation Systems, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Maidment, Ross (r.i.maidment@reading.ac.uk)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- 352646 The IMERG Experience in Building Precipitation Products That Users Want (Invited Presentation)
- Huffman, George J. (george.j.huffman@nasa.gov)
- NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD USA
- 352895 Exploring Global Precipitation Extremes with CHIRPS v2.0 (Invited Presentation)
- Peterson, Pete (geogpete@gmail.com)
- Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Funk, Chris C. (cfunk@usgs.gov)
- USGS/Earth Resources Observation Systems, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Roca, Rémy (roca@lmd.jussieu.fr)
- Harrison, Laura S. (harrison@geog.ucsb.edu)
- Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Husak, Greg (husak@geog.ucsb.edu)
- Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Alexander, Lisa V. (l.alexander@unsw.edu.au)
- Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Hillbruner, Chris (chillbruner@fews.net)
- FEWS NET, Washington, DC USA
- Rowland, James (rowland@usgs.gov)
- USGS, Sioux Falls, SD USA
- Budde, Michael E. (mbudde@usgs.gov)
- SAIC-USGS/EROS, Sioux Falls, SD USA
- 353750 Developments within the TAMSAT Group for Long-Term Rainfall Monitoring and Agricultural Early Warning across Africa
- Maidment, Ross (r.i.maidment@reading.ac.uk)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- Black, Emily (e.c.l.black@reading.ac.uk)
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Climate Division, Reading, United Kingdom
- Young, Matthew (matthew.young@reading.ac.uk)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- Greatrex, Helen (greatrex@iri.columbia.edu)
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY USA
- Asfaw, Dagmawi (d.t.asfaw@pgr.reading.ac.uk)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- 350436 A Seasonal Rainfall Performance Probability Tool for Famine Early Warning Systems
- Novella, Nick (nicholas.novella@noaa.gov)
- CPC, College Park, MD USA
- Thiaw, Wassila (Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov)
- CPC, Camp Springs, MD USA
- 349966 Using Satellite Rainfall Estimates to Enhance Climate Services in Africa
- Dinku, Tufa (tufa@iri.columbia.edu)
- Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY USA
- 350922 Can We Create Global Precipitation Products on Demand?
- Kummerow, Christian (kummerow@atmos.colostate.edu)
- Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO USA
- Brown, Paula J. (pbrown@atmos.colostate.edu)
- Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO USA
This session highlights advances in the technology and techniques used for probabilistic and deterministic decision support in aviation, range, and aerospace operations.
Observing Systems: Atmosphere, Ocean and Land Surface, In Situ and Remote. Comparisons With Other Observing Systems—Part II
4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
5:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
99th AMS Annual Meeting Adjourns