Relationships between Convection and Commercial Aircraft Turbulence Reports

The Forecast Impact and Quality Assessment Section within NOAA/ESRL/Global Systems Division is funded by the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program to serve as an independent assessor of aviation weather products. In anticipation of future aviation turbulence forecast and analysis products including a convectively-induced turbulence component, an investigation was conducted to quantify the likelihood of encountering moderate-or-greater (MOG) turbulence around convection using distance and storm characteristics as stratifications. Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) aviation vertically-integrated liquid (VIL) data and industry-relevant thresholds were used to define the outlines of the storms, and eddy dissipation rate (EDR) reports above 20,000 feet from commercial airlines were used to analyze the nearby turbulence. The results indicate that aircraft are more likely to encounter MOG turbulence within 20 miles of a storm and more intense and larger storms are associated with higher frequencies of MOG turbulence. A comparison to the NCAR Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) was also included. Finally, case studies comparing VIL, EDR reports, and supplemental datasets provided a unique look at how aircraft are impacted by convection. This presentation will include an overview of the techniques used for the investigation, some of the challenges encountered, statistical results, and a review of several case studies.