19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Program Chairs: Jason Knievel , NCAR ; James Pinto , NCAR

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Sunday, 6 January 2019

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4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Plenary Session
Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times
Location: North Ballroom 120CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum and Annual Meeting Welcome; the Seventh Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 16th Conference on Space Weather; the 17th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 22nd Atmospheric Science Librarians International Conference; the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Symposium on Education; the 35th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 23rd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Ninth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Seventh Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the Fifth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Phased Array Radar Symposium; the Special Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation; the Ninth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Ninth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the 10th Conference on Environment and Health; the 18th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; the Richard Anthes Symposium; the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; the Second Conference on Earth Observing SmallSats; the Seventh AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Ninth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 11th Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 21st Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Fourth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the Events )
Moderator: Michael Henry, American Institute of Physics
Presider: Roger Wakimoto, Univ. of California, Los Angeles
Speakers: Dan Kahan, American Institute of Physics; David Goldston, MIT
4:00 PM
Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times

Monday, 7 January 2019

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8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 1
Weather Guidance to Support Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) Operations
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Cecilia Miner, n/a; Jenny Stewart, Univ. of the Incarnate Word
8:30 AM
1.1
Urban Air Mobility—Emerging Opportunities for the Weather Community
Matthias Steiner, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Handout (2.0 MB)

9:00 AM
1.2
Are We Ready to Weather Urban Air Mobility (UAM)?
Colleen Reiche, Booz Allen Hamilton, Washington, DC; and F. Brody, C. McGillen, and N. Mendonca
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1.3
Making UAS Weather Intelligent with AERO
Eric Babyak, NextGen Federal Systems, LLC, Morgantown, WV; and C. Desai
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1.4
Targeted Weather Forecasts for Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems
Christopher A. Roseman, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and B. Argrow and J. O. Pinto
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (636.8 kB)

9:45 AM
1.5
Distributed Acceleration Sensing for Small UAS Wind Gust Estimation
Emily Ranquist, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (785.0 kB)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Monday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Autonomous Systems for Environmental Sensing and Weather Support for Autonomous System Operations—Part II: The Application of Autonomous Observing Platforms to Enhance Our Understanding of the Atmosphere and Ocean
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 35th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; and the 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology )
Cochairs: Melissa A. Wagner, Arizona State Univ.; Robert Doe, Univ. of Liverpool; Randall Bass, FAA; Scott S. Lindstrom, Univ. of Wisconsin
10:30 AM
J1.1
Spatial Structure of Thermodynamic Variables in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer
Benjamin L. Hemingway, Oklahoma State Univ., Stillwater, OK; and A. E. Frazier, B. R. Elbing, and J. D. Jacob
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
J1.2
Development of UAV-Deployed Air-Launched Drifters (ALD) for Aboveground Thermodynamic Measurements in Supercells
Sara J Swenson, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and B. Argrow, E. W. Frew, S. Borenstein, and J. M. Keeler
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (767.0 kB)

11:00 AM
J1.3
Tornado Pathway Dynamics Using UASs: The Influence of Topography on Tornadoes
Melissa A. Wagner, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and R. K. Doe

11:15 AM
J1.4
UASs Policy, Practice and Procedures Related to Tornado Hazard Site Investigations
Melissa A. Wagner, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and R. K. Doe
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
J1.5
Saildrone Data Handling: Workflow from Drone to Desktop
Eugene F Burger, PMEL, Seattle, WA; and D. Peacock, A. Manke, K. M. O'Brien, R. H. Schweitzer, N. D. Anderson, E. D. Cokelet, N. Lawrence-Slavas, C. Meinig, C. W. Mordy, M. F. Cronin, J. N. Cross, and D. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
J1.6
Hybrid Autonomous Underwater Vehicle and Unmanned Surface Vehicle Sampling for Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)—Prototype and Results of a Field Trial
Tiffany C. Vance, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Mickett, J. A. Newton, R. W. Osborne, V. L. Trainer, and N. Trenaman
Recorded Presentation


Session 2
CANCELED - Policies, Services, Initiatives, and Organizational Strategies in the Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorological Communities
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Michael Robinson, MITRE Corporation; Mary J. Gilbert, Millersville Univ.
2.1
Aviation R2O Work at EMC

2.3
Evolving NWS Aviation Weather Services at Kansas City Air Route Traffic Control Center: Impact-Based Decision Support Services to Support the New FAA District Concept and Future Considerations

2.4
Status of ICAO Meteorological Information Exchange Model (IWXXM) Global Implementation

2.5
Status of Implementation of ICAO Space Weather Information Provision

2.6
Development and Implementation Strategies of Unified Forecast System at NCEP Operations: Focus on Extreme Weather that Affects Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Operations

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Lightning Monitoring at Aviation and Range Locations
Location: North 225AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; and the 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology )
Cochairs: Jennifer G. Wilson, NASA; Ryan K. Decker, NASA/MSFC
10:30 AM
J3.1
Results of Initial Feasibility Study on Tactical Support Information for Avoiding Aircraft Lightning Strikes
Eiichi Yoshikawa, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Mitaka, Japan; and T. Ushio, T. Nishi, H. Oikawa, A. Senoguchi, and M. Kamogawa

10:45 AM
J3.2
Lightning Safety Guidance for Ramp Operations at Airports
Wiebke Deierling, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Klein, M. Steiner, K. Ikeda, and R. Bass

11:00 AM
J3.3
A Climatology of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for the Eastern Range
William P. Roeder, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick Air Force Base, FL; and J. D. Rapp
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
J3.4
Evaluating GLM in the Aviation Weather Test Bed and Aviation Weather Center
Brian P. Pettegrew, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Kansas City, MO; and S. Minnick and A. Terborg

11:30 AM
J3.5
Design of a Low-Cost, High-Speed Electric Field Mill for Continuous Electric Field Monitoring
Robert Marshall, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and A. Antunes de Sa, A. Viets, A. Sousa, W. Deierling, and C. Myers
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
J3.6
Lightning Prediction at Cape Canaveral AFS, FL, via the Application of Deep Learning to Surface Observations and Field Mill Data
Dominick V. Speranza, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH; and A. J. Geyer
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 3
Latest Advances in Research on Icing and Other Winter Weather that Affects Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Operations
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory; Daniel Tripp, Univ. of Oklahoma
2:00 PM
3.1
In-Flight Icing Remote Detection by a Scanning Microwave Radiometer
Marian Klein, Boulder Environmental Sciences and Technology, Boulder, CO; and V. Irisov, A. Gasiewski, and E. R. Westwater
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3.2
Radar Reflectivity Threshold and NWP Temperatures as a Potential Aircraft Icing Product
Andrew A. Rosenow, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves and B. P. Pettegrew
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3.3
Advances in Ceilometer Data Processing—Detecting Atmospheric Icing in the Vertical Profile
Anne Hirsikko, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and K. Hämäläinen, A. Ruuskanen, A. Leskinen, M. Komppula, and E. O'Connor
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3.4
Development of New Icing Products for Supercooled Large Drop Conditions
Allyson Rugg, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Tessendorf, D. R. Adriaansen, and J. A. Haggerty
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (659.7 kB)

Handout (26.5 MB)

3:00 PM
3.5
Dual-Polarized Radar Coverage in Terminal Airspaces and Its Effect on Interpretation of Winter Weather Signatures: Current Capabilities and Future Recommendations
Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Waters
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3.6
Investigating the Variability of Winter Precipitation Rates across an Airport Terminal Area
Justin Lentz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. D. Landolt, S. DiVito, and A. Gaydos
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
3.7
Towards Improving Winter Weather Hydrometeor-Type Forecasts Using High-Resolution UAS Data
Daniel Tripp, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. R. Martin
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
3.8
ICICLE: Winter 2018–19 In-Cloud Icing and Large-Drop Experiment
Stephanie DiVito, FAA, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ; and B. C. Bernstein, J. T. Riley, T. Bond, D. L. Sims, S. D. Landolt, J. A. Haggerty, M. Wolde, and A. Korolev
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Formal Poster Viewing Reception
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Exhibits Opening and Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Tuesday, 8 January 2019

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8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 4
Latest Tools, Data, Model Results, and Techniques for Understanding, Predicting, and Mitigating the Impact of Turbulence in Aviation—Part I
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Stanley B. Trier, NCAR; Emily Ranquist, Univ. of Colorado
8:30 AM
4.1
Relationships between Convection and Commercial Aircraft Turbulence Reports
Dana M. Mueller, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and K. R. Fenton Jr., M. S. Wandishin, and M. A. Petty
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
4.2
New Capabilities of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Product
Wiebke Deierling, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman, D. Muñoz-Esparza, J. Pearson, and G. Meymaris

9:15 AM
4.3
Using In-Cloud Turbulence Observations to Improve Nowcasting and Forecasting of Convectively Induced Turbulence
Julia M. Pearson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Deierling, R. D. Sharman, and G. Meymaris
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
4.4
Improvement of Nonconvective Aviation Turbulence Forecast in the World Area Forecast System (WAFS)
Jung-Hoon Kim, Colorado State Univ./CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and R. D. Sharman, M. Strahan, and P. Buchanan
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
4.5
Toward an ARPEGE-Based Aviation Turbulence Combined Diagnosis
Pierre Crispel, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and C. Le Bot, O. Jaron, A. Er-Roundi, A. Drouin, and R. D. Sharman
Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.8 MB)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 5
Latest Tools, Data, Model Results, and Techniques for Understanding, Predicting, and Mitigating the Impact of Turbulence in Aviation—Part II
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Dana M. Mueller, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA; Elizabeth Venteicher, Valparaiso Univ.
10:30 AM
5.1
A Physical versus a Statistical Forecast Formulation for Clear Air Turbulence
Donald W. McCann, McCann Aviation Weather Research, Inc., Overland Park, KS
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (855.5 kB)

5.2
Government-Industry Collaborative Investigations of In-Cloud Versus Out-of-Cloud Turbulence

10:45 AM
5.2A
Predicting Aircraft Turbulence with a Deep Learning Model Applied to Geostationary Infrared Imagery
Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/University of Wisconsin−Madison, Madison, WI; and S. M. Griffin and J. Gerth

11:00 AM
5.3
A Data-Driven Approach to Analyze Turbulence Encounters from the American Airlines Turbulence Task Force
Steve Abelman, American Airlines, Ft. Worth, TX
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
5.4
What Might a Probabilistic Forecast of Turbulence Look Like?
Matthew S. Wandishin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. M. Mueller and M. A. Petty
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
5.5
Numerical Simulation of Turbulence near the Surface When an Accident Occurred at Narita Airport
Junshi Ito, The Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and H. Niino and K. Yoshino
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
5.6
High-Resolution Nested WRF Simulations of Mechanisms Contributing to a Widespread Turbulence Outbreak in Early Spring
Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 6
Innovative Use of Observations and Other Weather Information, Including for Climatographies and in Machine Learning and Statistical Techniques—Part I
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: David P. Duda, SSAI; Eric James, NOAA/ESRL
1:30 PM
6.1
The Airbus Perlan II Mission: Forecasting and Modeling for the Argentinian Flights into the Stratosphere in a Piloted, Engineless Glider
James D. Means, WeatherExtreme Ltd., Incline Village, NV; and K. N. Shourd, J. Payne, W. Rogers, D. Gudgel, E. Enevoldson, and E. Austin
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
6.2
Using Cameras as Weather Sensors—Deriving Weather Data from Images
Randall Bass, FAA, Washington, DC; and J. A. Colavito, G. Pokodner, M. Matthews, K. Kronfeld, and M. Pirone
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
6.3
The Temporal and Spatial Expansion of LAMP: Going Out to 38 Hours and Covering New Domains
Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD; and A. D. Schnapp, B. Glahn, F. Guarriello, P. E. Shafer, J. P. Charba, F. G. Samplatsky, and A. J. Kochenash

2:15 PM
6.4
Verifying the Impact of the FV3-GFS Upgrade on LAMP Statistical Guidance
Elizabeth Venteicher, Valparaiso Univ., Valparaiso, IN; and J. E. Ghirardelli and F. G. Samplatsky
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (599.0 kB)

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 7
Innovative Use of Observations and Other Weather Information, Including for Climatographies and in Machine Learning and Statistical Techniques—Part II
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Chair: Jussi S. Ylhäisi, Finnish Meteorological Institute
3:00 PM
7.1
Global Synthetic Weather Radar Capability in Support of the U.S. Air Force
Haig Iskenderian, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and M. S. Veillette, C. J. Mattioli, P. M. Lamey, E. P. Hassey, A. Banerjee, M. Worris, K. Cancio, S. Rajagopalan, H. Usmani, J. P. Dreher, N. Hock, and J. Radovan
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
7.2
Changes in Northern Hemisphere Contrail Properties between 2006 and 2012 Determined from MODIS Imagery
David P. Duda, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and S. T. Bedka, D. Spangenberg, K. Khlopenkov, T. L. Chee, P. Minnis, and W. L. Smith Jr.
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
7.3
A Filter for Using Mesonet Visibility Observations in Operations and Verification
Kenneth R. Fenton Jr., NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Wandishin and M. A. Petty
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
7.4
The Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Commercial Aircraft Weather Observations Available for Assimilation into Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Eric P. James, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Jamison and S. Benjamin
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 8
ARAM Conference Posters—Part I
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Thomas A. Guinn, Embry–Riddle Aeronatical Univ.; Matthew Tucker, National Air Traffic Controllers Association
542
Advances in Convective Hazard Predictions for Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC) Ranges
Cathy Kessinger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Deierling, D. Megenhardt, and S. Dettling

Handout (2.2 MB)

543
A Flow Constraint Technique for an Operationally Relevant Metric of Forecast Performance
Geary J. Layne, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. A. Petty

544
Mapping Precipitation Intensity to Radar Observations and Derivatives
Elizabeth M. Sims, National Weather Center, Norman, OK; and A. A. Rosenow and H. D. Reeves
Manuscript (461.9 kB)

545
Application of Optical Flow and Machine Learning Methods in Nowcasting and Early Warning of Strong Convective Weather
Yungang Chen, Beijing Piesat Information & Technology Limited, Beijing, China; and X. Xu, X. Zhang, and Y. WANG
Manuscript (82.6 kB)

546
Introduction to the Short-Term Aviation Weather Forecasting System in North China
Han Shen, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Y. Huang, M. Chen, F. Wang, M. Huo, W. Zhang, and H. Yuan

547
A Random Forest Sensitivity Test Using Radar Signatures to Forecast Wet Downbursts at Spaceport Florida
Bruno L. Medina, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and C. G. Amiot, R. M. Mecikalski, L. D. Carey, W. P. Roeder, T. M. McNamara, and R. J. Blakeslee

548
Improving Cloud Depiction to Serve Aviation and Drive a Common Operating Picture through Digital Aviation Services and the Graphical Forecasts for Aviation.

549
Future AWC Collaborative Capabilities to Support Day 1 Planning in the National Airspace System
Karen Eagle, NOAA, Kansas CIty, MO; and J. A. Sparks

551
Microscale Forecasting for Unmanned Aerial Systems
Jenny Stewart, Univ. of the Incarnate Word, Converse, TX; and S. Weiss-Lopez

552
Processing AROME Vertical Profiles with Machine Learning Methods to Diagnose Aeronautical Ceiling in TAF messages
Pierre Crispel, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and P. M. Jaunet, S. Moisselin, and A. Drouin

Handout (2.8 MB)

553
Ceiling and Visibility Analysis for Alaska—Quality Evaluation and Product Updates
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Cowie, J. O. Pinto, D. Megenhardt, D. A. Wesley, R. D. Roberts, G. Cunning, and J. A. Colavito

Handout (5.0 MB)

555
Development of LAMP Cloud Base Guidance

554
Dust Modeling with the USAF's Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model (GALWEM)

556
Combining Satellite and Ground-Based Ceilometer Data over the U.S. to Improve Cloud Ceiling Estimates away from Surface Stations
Douglas A. Spangenberg, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and W. L. Smith Jr., K. Khlopenkov, and S. Sun-Mack

Handout (7.5 MB)

557
Comparison of Two Physical- and Statistical-Based Postprocessing Methods for High-Resolution NWP Visibility Forecasts over 13 North European Airports
Mari Nikkilä, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Kuopio, Finland; and J. S. Ylhäisi, S. Neiglick, and T. Koivunen

Handout (803.3 kB)

558
Analyzing Error in Balloon-Based Wind Measurements due to Spatial Separation Using the North American Regional Reanalysis
Nathan Curtis, NASA MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and F. B. Leahy and R. E. Barbre Jr.

Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 9
Understanding the Impact of Weather on Commercial Aviation—Part I
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Richard H. Stone, RHS Consulting, Ltd.; Emily M. Sullivan, The Univ. of Georgia
8:30 AM
9.1
Weather Incidents & Accidents in Contemporary Commercial Aviation: A Forensic Meteorologist's Perspective
Kacie Shourd, WeatherExtreme Ltd., Incline Village, NV; and E. J. Austin, J. D. Means, and A. Austin
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
9.2
Outstanding Weather Needs and Priorities for Trajectory-Based Air Traffic Operations
Michael Robinson, MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and M. Fronzak, R. Avjian, and J. Huhn
Recorded Presentation

9.3
Weather Information Enterprise Services - a framework to acquire weather data and archive cases for study; perform analysis and visualization; and replay archived data sets to NAS systems in a laboratory setting

9:15 AM
9.3A
Trends in IFR conditions at major airports in the United States
Scott E. Stevens, CICS, Asheville, NC
Recorded Presentation

9.4
Impact-Based Decision Support Services for the National Airspace System: A Case Study of Two High-Impact Thunderstorm Events on Traffic Flow Management

Handout (1.8 MB)

9:30 AM
9.4A
Wind LIDAR Applications for Aviation Safety
Jamison Hawkins, Lockheed Martin, Greenbelt, MD
Recorded Presentation

9.5
Intrinsic Value of Days 1-4 Aviation Weather Impact Forecasts for High Impact Events

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 10
Understanding the Impact of Weather on Commercial Aviation—Part II
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Le Jiang, IMSG; Stephanie Avey, NOAA
10:30 AM
Withdrawn

10:45 AM
10.2
Correlation between Observed Snowfall and Operational Efficiency at Major U.S. Airports
Benjamin David Dillahunt, Southwest Airlines Co., Dallas, TX; and M. Mathews
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
10.3
A Climatology of Volcanic Ash Dispersal from a Mount Rainier Eruption Using USGS Ash3D with NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis Data: Potential Impacts on Commercial Airspace
Emily M. Sullivan, The Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and J. A. Knox
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
10.4
Characterization of High Ice Water Content Conditions that Impact Air Data System Performance
Julie Haggerty, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Ratvasky, A. Rugg, J. Jensen, J. W. Strapp, L. Lillie, and K. M. Bedka
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
10.5
How JetBlue Airways Uses Microweather Forecasts in Daily Operations, Based on Novel Data Sources, New Nowcasting Models, and Products
Daniel Rothenberg, ClimaCell Inc., Boston, MA
Recorded Presentation

10.6
Evaluating High-Resolution Model Data for Aviation Impacts Due to Cloud and Visibility for the San Francisco International Airport Part II

11:45 AM
10.6A
JPSS Aviation Weather Initiative
Jeffrey Weinrich, JPSS Program Office/Global Science & Technology, Inc., Lanham, MD
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Lunch Break (Wed)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 11
Understanding, Predicting, and Observing Severe Convective Weather for Application to Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Operations
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Colleen Reiche, Booz Allen Hamilton; Christopher A. Roseman, Univ. of Colorado Boulder
1:30 PM
11.1
Full-Lifecycle Nowcast of Thunderstorm in eIAWS®
Ruiyue Chen, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and M. Fang, C. Tan, Y. Weng, W. Guo, J. Cheng, S. Liu, L. Jiang, X. Yuan, C. Wei, and X. Li
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
11.2
Infusion of New Blending Technology into the NextGen Weather Processor for Improved Short-Term Storm Forecasting
James O. Pinto, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and K. Stone, A. Rugg, D. Albo, M. Steiner, D. Morse, H. Iskenderian, W. J. Dupree, and P. M. Lamey
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
11.3
Improvements to Convective Wind Nowcasting at Cape Canaveral, Florida Using Subjective Dual-Polarization Radar Analyses
Corey G. Amiot, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and L. D. Carey, W. P. Roeder, T. M. McNamara, and R. J. Blakeslee
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
11.4
Evaluating Severe Convective Wind Environments and Radar Signatures
Mary J. Gilbert, Millersville Univ., Allentown, PA
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (148.9 kB)

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 12
Achievements and Challenges in Predicting Ceiling and Visibility
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Randall Bass, FAA; Melissa A. Petty, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
3:00 PM
12.1
Use of SEVIRI Satellite Imagery for Fog Detection, Frequency Analysis, and Nowcast in the Desert of the UAE
Marouane Temimi, Khalifa Univ., Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and M. Weston, M. Almoosawi, J. Zhao, M. Vargas Godoy, V. K. Valappil, A. Aldababseh, and F. Karagulian

3:15 PM
12.2
Marine Fog Prediction at the Naval Research Laboratory—Factors Affecting the Model Skill
Sasa Gabersek, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and D. D. Flagg and J. D. Doyle
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
12.3
Enhancing Ceiling and Visibility Capabilities in the Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) Tool
Stephanie Avey, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and S. Alvidrez, S. A. Lack, A. Cross, R. Bastholm, and J. A. Colavito
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
12.4
Transitioning Gridded LAMP Ceiling Height and Visibility Guidance to Alaska
Adam D. Schnapp, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory and KBRwyle, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn and J. E. Ghirardelli
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 13
ARAM Conference Posters—Part II
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Geary J. Layne, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Karen Eagle, NOAA
995
NARR-Based Climatology of Estimated Altimeter Error due to Nonstandard Temperatures
Thomas A. Guinn, Embry–Riddle Aeronatical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and C. G. Herbster and K. B. Lenninger
Manuscript (1.4 MB)

996
Recent Developments of Supercooled Liquid Water and Mixed Phase Cloud Detection from an Airborne Platform

997
Forecasting Extreme Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) with a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System
Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Roux, Y. Liu, and B. C. Thomas

998
Enhancements to the Global Weather Hazards Project
Cathy Kessinger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Megenhardt, J. Olivo, L. Lin, V. Hoang, M. Nayote, O. Matz, A. Ritter, D. Wolf, K. Sievers, R. Scheinhartz, and J. Cahall

Handout (1.3 MB)

999
Echo Age in the National Radar Mosaic: An Update on the Statistics of Echo Age and Its Effects on Interpretation of Hazards in the Aviation Sector
Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Cooper, R. Toomey, J. Brogden, and K. W. Howard

1000
Upcoming MRMS Hydrometeor Classification Products
Andrew A. Rosenow, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. L. Handler and H. D. Reeves

1001
Quality Assessment of the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Aviation
Matthew T. Morris, Systems Research Group and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, E. Colón, M. Pondeca, S. Levine, and J. Derber

1002
The Impact of AMDAR Reporting over East China on Short-Term High-Resolution Regional NWP Application
Jing Cheng, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and S. Liu, Y. Weng, J. M. García-Rivera, Y. Li, B. Hu, C. Wei, and J. Le

1003
Comparison between TAF and MOS Focused on Wind Speed during Spring Season in 2017–2018
Jae Won Lee, KMA, Incheon, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. LEE and M. LEE
Manuscript (298.9 kB)

Handout (458.2 kB)

1004
TAF Initialization at Météo-France: The IniTAF Project
Thierry Kranitz, Météo-France, Noumea, New Caledonia; and P. Crispel, P. M. Jaunet, C. Delin, and A. Drouin

Handout (5.6 MB)

1005
Current and Future Improvements to the Graphical Forecasts for Aviation Tool
Daniel Vietor, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Kansas City, MO; and S. A. Lack, S. Avey, B. P. Pettegrew, A. M. Terborg, S. Silberberg, T. P. Mahony, R. L. Solomon, C. Wallace, J. W. Scheck, D. Blondin, M. Strahan, L. Greenwood, and B. Lucas

1006
Weather Support for Collaborative Decision-Making on Aviation
Shun Liu, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Weng, W. Guo, R. Chen, J. Cheng, M. Fang, M. Yao, L. Jiang, W. Zhang, A. Liang, W. Chen, P. guo, and H. Zhang

1007
Impact-Based Decision Support Services Collaboration between NWS and FAA: 100th PGA Tournament Aviation Planning and Enhanced Services

1008
Regional and Subregional Initiatives for Improved Weather Service Delivery to Aviation
Jaakko Nuottokari, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

Handout (4.2 MB)

1009
Collaborative FAA/NWS Research-to-Operations Enhancements
Brian P. Pettegrew, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Kansas City, MO; and D. L. Sims and J. W. Scheck

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Awards Banquet Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


99th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Thursday, 10 January 2019

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session J3
Space Weather Effects on High Flyers
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the 16th Conference on Space Weather )
Cochairs: Bill Bauman, FAA; Kelsey Doerksen, Univ. of Western Ontario
8:30 AM
JJ3.1
Analytical Representations for Characterizing the Global Aviation Radiation Environment Based on Model and Measurement Databases (Invited Presentation)
W. Kent Tobiska, Space Environment Technologies, Pacific Palisades, CA; and C. J. Mertens and Y. Zheng
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
JJ3.2
International Cooperation for Space Weather Service Delivery for Aviation
Jaakko Nuottokari, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and A. M. Harri, K. Kauristie, and K. Österberg
Recorded Presentation

Handout (13.6 MB)

9:15 AM
JJ3.3
Space Radiation Intelligence System (SPRINTS)
Alexander Engell, NextGen Federal Systems, Havre de Grace, MD
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 14
Advancements in NWP Systems, Including Ensemble Prediction, Data Assimilation, and Validation
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Alex Mahalov, Arizona State Univ.; Matt Fronzak, The MITRE Corporation
10:30 AM
14.1
Improving Probabilistic Forecasts of Aviation Weather Hazards
Ken Stone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. O. Pinto, M. Strahan, R. Bass, M. Steiner, C. P. Kalb, C. J. Kessinger, J. Pearson, and J. A. Grim
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
14.2
Numerical Forecasts of Deep Convection in a Tropical Mountainous Environment in Support of the Colombian Civil Aviation Authority (Aerocivil)
Tracy Hertneky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. A. Kucera, L. Carson, K. Newman, J. Hacker, D. F. Steinhoff, W. Cheng, W. Wu, and M. J. Kavulich Jr.
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
14.3
Incorporation of CAM Ensemble-Based Assimilation into the Deterministic HRRR for HRRRv4 and Work to Transition from the HRRR to an FV3-Based Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS)
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, D. C. Dowell, J. Duda, T. T. Ladwig, E. P. James, M. Hu, T. G. Smirnova, J. S. Kenyon, J. B. Olson, I. Jankov, H. Lin, G. Ge, R. Ahmadov, J. M. Brown, and S. G. Benjamin
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
14.4
A Preliminary Look at the Impacts of Assimilating UAS Data into High-Resolution WRF Simulations of the San Luis Valley
Anders A. Jensen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. O. Pinto, P. A. Jimenez, P. B. Chilson, S. Smith, J. D. Jacob, A. Houston, D. A. Lawrence, and G. de Boer
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
14.5
Radar Assimilation in the Kwajalein Atoll
Brian P Reen, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, Adelphi, MD; and H. Cai, J. W. Raby, M. O. Scott, and S. C. Ericson
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
14.6
Ultrahigh-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction with a Large Domain and Size Dependency of Simulated Convective Cores on Model resolutions
Tsutao Oizumi, JAMSTEC, kanagawa, Japan; and K. Saito, L. Duc, and J. Ito

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Lunch Break (Thurs)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 15
Probabilistic and Deterministic Decision-Support Technology and Techniques—Part I
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Bruce Carmichael, NCAR; Elizabeth M. Sims, Birmingham-Southern College
15.1
Applications of Weather Climatology for Decision Support Services at Airports

1:30 PM
15.1A
An Assessment of the Installation and Performance of the eIAWS™ Aviation Weather Forecast System in East China
Jose M. Garcia-Rivera, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and J. Cheng, R. Chen, W. Guo, Y. Weng, Q. Xing, Q. Shi, and L. Jiang
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
15.2
Quantify Convective Weather Impact to Airspace Capacity for Improved Regional Air Traffic Flow Management
Le Jiang, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and M. A. Petty, G. J. Layne, W. Yang, J. M. Garcia-Rivera, J. Cheng, R. Chen, W. Guo, Y. Weng, S. Liu, J. Liu, X. Yuan, Q. Xing, Q. Shi, X. Xiang, W. Chen, F. C. Brody, T. H. Fahey III, G. Cameron, and J. Tymczyszyn
Recorded Presentation

15.3
Integrating GOES-16 Resources into Air Traffic Decision-Making

2:00 PM
15.3A
The Remote Oceanic Meteorology Information Operational (ROMIO) Demonstration
Cathy Kessinger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Frazier, T. A. Lindholm, B. Barron, J. Olivo, B. Watts, R. Stone, S. Abelman, A. Trani, M. DeRis, and C. Gill
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
15.4
Minimizing Fuel Usage in Long-Haul Aircraft with Optimized Flight Planning Using Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Brendon T Sands, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and A. J. Geyer
Recorded Presentation

15.5
Generating In-Flight Hazard Information Using AWIPS Hazard Services

2:30 PM
15.5A
Advances in Convective Hazard Predictions for Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC) Ranges -
Cathy Kessinger, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
15.6
Aviation Decision Support during High-Impact Weather Events via Hyperlocal Remote Sensing Observations
Kimberly A. Reed, Radiometrics Corporation, Boulder, CO; and W. Conway, P. T. Schlatter, J. Baumgardner, R. Ware, and T. Wilfong
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Thurs)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 16
Probabilistic and Deterministic Decision-Support Technology and Techniques—Part II
Location: North 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
Cochairs: Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL; Bruno L. Medina, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville
3:30 PM
16.3
NCAR's Runway Friction and Closure Prediction System (RFCPS)
Seth Linden, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Wiener, T. Brummet, W. Petzke, and I. Srivastava
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
16.4
Launch Weather Decision Support System
Randolph 'Stick' Ware, Radiometrics, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Brewster, F. H. Carr, K. A. Reed, T. Wilfong, T. Brauer, D. H. Berchoff, J. A. Brotzge, W. Conway, W. J. Emery, G. Guillot, L. L. Huddleston, R. Kursinski, C. McCormick, and N. Rydell
Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.4 MB)

4:00 PM
16.5
Enhancements to Convective Weather Avoidance Modeling Using Probabilistic Machine Learning
Christopher J. Mattioli, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and M. Matthews, H. Iskenderian, and M. S. Veillette
Recorded Presentation

16.6
Model Certainty: Using Multimodel Ensembles for Integrated Decision Support Services

5:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


99th AMS Annual Meeting Adjourns
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