Development and Implementation Strategies of Unified Forecast System at NCEP Operations: Focus on Extreme Weather that Affects Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Operations

NCEP is implementing first version of the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamic core based Global Forecast System (FV3GFS V1.0) into operations in January 2019, replacing the current spectral model based operational GFS. This heralds a new era of operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) at NCEP and signals the creation of NOAA's Unified Forecast System (UFS) centered on FV3 dynamic core for weather prediction at all spatial and temporal scales. Along with the global model development, a parallel project has begun to develop FV3 based convective allowing models (FV3CAM) in collaboration with ESRL/GSD, NSSL and GFDL. The high-resolution model based guidance currently supported by HREF, SREF, NAM Nests, RAP/HRRR etc. will eventually be subsumed by a new FV3 CAM based Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) within the UFS framework.

UFS development and operational implementation efforts are focused on transitioning multiple global and regional models at NCEP using applications derived from UFS. Advancement in model physics and data assimilation are achieved through the use of Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) and Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) respectively.

This talk describes the planned strategy and timelines for developing and implementing UFS for global and regional applications, especially of RRFS, with focus on improved prediction for extreme weather events that affects aviation interests.