Ceiling and Visibility Analysis for Alaska—Quality Evaluation and Product Updates

An experimental, analysis product for ceiling and visibility hazards to aviation in Alaska was created in 2016. Ongoing research has led to improvements and calibration of the original product.The product is being evaluated subjectively by staff at the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit and objectively via standard forecast verification methods. For version 2 of the product, a GOES satellite cloud mask is used to clear areas between METARs that have been identified as cloudy by the model. Cross validation results show improved identification of high ceiling conditions, with some degradation in identification of restricted ceilings. Performance varies markedly by season. During the next year, plans include addition of polar orbiting satellite cloud masks and web camera estimates of visibility. Eventually, the product will be transitioned into operations as part of the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis at the Environmental Modeling Center.

**Disclaimer: This research is in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA.