The Temporal and Spatial Expansion of LAMP: Going Out to 38 Hours and Covering New Domains

The Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) provides critical guidance to the aviation forecasting community by providing skillful guidance for weather elements that are impactful to the National Airspace System. The LAMP guidance, which is currently limited to the 1-25 h forecast range, is also a critical component of the near-term (1-36 h) hourly resolution National Blend of Models (NBM).

The statistical approach in LAMP has recently been modified to incorporate fine resolution observational datasets and mesoscale model output such as that from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. In 2019 LAMP guidance will undergo additional changes in terms of temporal and spatial coverage. Specifically, the guidance for select elements will be extended to 26-38 h forecast projections for incorporation into the NBM. LAMP guidance covering a longer period will also be beneficial to the forecasting community responsible for creating international Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) that are required to cover the 30-h period. Along with this change, Gridded LAMP guidance will be available over the full NBM CONUS domain for select elements.

This talk will describe the current status of LAMP in NWS operations, as well as detail the status of the 2019 implementation in which the LAMP ceiling and visibility guidance will for the first time extend to 38 hours and cover the full NBM CONUS domain. Redeveloped LAMP ceiling and visibility verification for the 38-h period using updated GFS MOS and updated HRRR model data will be presented along with case studies showing the Gridded LAMP guidance over the expanded domain. This implementation will also provide new Gridded LAMP guidance for probabilities of precipitation in various temporal periods. Future plans for the redevelopment of Gridded LAMP sky cover guidance as well as plans to transition the technology of the LAMP “Meld” system from the CONUS domain to the Alaska domain for ceiling, visibility, convection, and lightning will be presented along with a description of the status of the projects.

Portions of this research are in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA. Portions of this material are based upon work supported by the Joint Technology Transition Initiative (JTTI) Program within NOAA/OAR Office of Weather and Air Quality.