Radar Reflectivity Threshold and NWP Temperatures as a Potential Aircraft Icing Product

Among the top items on the wishlist of potential Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) products for the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) forecasters is a radar-based icing tool. In this presentation, an emerging MRMS product that aims to fulfill this request is described. This product combines radar reflectivity with HRRR-model temperature profiles to assign the temperature at cloud top. In particular, the techniques involved in assigning a characteristic reflectivity threshold to define the cloud top will be presented along with performance statistics using Pireps as part of several case studies. Future activities, including incorporation of dual-polarized radar inputs and combining the radar products with satellite-derived products will also be presented. Last, the path forward into operations, which includes an active testbed phase in partnership with the AWC and the eventual onboarding to NCEP will be described.