Evaluating WRF Simulations for Use in an Outage Prediction Model

UCONN has developed an electricity Outage Prediction Model (OPM), for Eversource Energy service areas in Connecticut. The initial OPM was developed for rain/wind and a new OPM is being developed for Eversource service areas in New Hampshire and Massachusetts as well as winter events in all service territories. The goal of this research is to evaluate PSU WRF simulations to UCONN’s WRF simulation for inclusion in the OPM. The evaluations consist of comparing hourly WRF output with observed METAR data. Simulations are run for twelve rain/wind and thirteen winter outage events. Simulations are completed for a 48-hour window that encompasses the significant weather that causes power outages. Eighteen weather variables associated with rain/wind power outages are derived from both the WRF simulations and METAR data. Statistical analyses of the data show that PSU WRF simulations have similar error characteristics to the UCONN WRF simulations. For example, PSU WRF simulations over forecast maximum wind gusts, especially in the more complex terrain of northern and western NH. Future work would include expanding the amount of events analyzed, evaluating weather variables associated with winter outages as well as exploring the synoptic/mesoscale conditions associated with power outages.