Impact of GOES-16 Observations on Prediction of High-Impact Convective Weather

Future weather warning systems will be driven by short-term ensemble forecasts of convective storms produced by frequently updated, storm-scale, data assimilation systems (Stensrud et al. 2009). Presently, these systems rely heavily on radar networks to provide observations within convective storms. Next-generation satellite systems (e.g. GOES-16) promise an additional source of convective-scale observations with unprecedented high spatial and temporal resolution. Assimilating satellite-based products show potential to vastly improve forecasts of convective development and changes in storm intensity over what is currently possible with radar data assimilation only, especially in regions where radar observation coverage is poor.

Results from observation impacts studies with and without high spatial and temporal resolution GOES-16 observations will be demonstrated with a state-of-the-art storm-scale data assimilation and ensemble forecasting system. Control analyses will include assimilation of conventional and radar observations from a series of convective weather events that occurred in the central Great Plains during Spring 2018. Additional assimilation experiments will demonstrate the impact from supplemental assimilation of clear-sky upper-level, mid-level, and lower-level tropospheric water vapor sensitive channels (central wavelengths of 6.2, 6.9, and 7.3 mm respectively) from the GOES-16 advanced baseline imager. Analysis will focus on the impact of these radiance observations on predictions of convection initiation and storm evolution.