Managing for Drought. Part I: Developing a Drought Decision-Making Typology to Identify Key Sources of Uncertainty

The duration and severity of drought impacts are influenced by metrological factors as well as anthropogenic land and water resource management. However, there remains a substantial amount of uncertainty surrounding human decision making in the context of drought and water management, from the individual level to communities, agencies, and institutions. Interactions among actors to assess the most appropriate uses of scarce water supplies in preparation for or response to drought conditions involves a complexity of social, political, and cultural factors. Impacts of drought may be perceived and responded to differently in various contexts and natural-resource based sectors – for example, hydrological, meteorological, agricultural, or ecological – and ambiguity and uncertainty abounds in how humans make decision across these contexts and scenarios. In particular, a gap in knowledge remains in understanding to what extent commonalities (or differences) exist in drought decision making. Further, the social and cultural factors which amplify or reduce uncertainty in drought adaptation and management remains unclear. This talk will draw from available literature and experiences of researchers in the context of human and social dimensions of drought preparation, response, and adaptation to develop and refine key conceptual categories that influence non-meteorological factor affecting drought decision making. Questions to address include: What are the types of drought decisions and who makes these decisions? Under which legal and regulatory mechanisms and constraints are they made? What factors determine the decision space in which an individual operates? What is the interaction among drought decisions in a given region or watershed? To what extent do decision makers enable or constrain one another’s decisions? Are there common explanatory factors that explain these interactions?

By further understanding non-meteorological factors that influence uncertainty in preparing for and managing drought impacts, scientists and weather service providers may more effectively frame and communicate forecasts and warnings in the contexts of water resource management.