Climate Impacts on China’s Regional Agricultural Production

Agricultural production depends on regional climate variations, but the magnitude and pattern for the dependence are still not quantified and the underlying mechanisms are yet to understand. As such, large uncertainty exists about how climate change will affect future agricultural production and thus its sustainability to yield sufficient foods. This study used China’s long records of annual crop yields at national and province levels and daily surface climate variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity) to establish robust relationships between them. We found that total crop yields in China have significant teleconnection patterns with seasonal climate interannual variations, and that crop yields in major production regions have strong correlations with regional climate conditions. These regional, seasonal relationships, varying with crop types, represent the physical climate-crop interactions during the planting, growth, and harvest seasons and hence can be used to develop regression models for future projections of the crop production in response to climate change. We will further conduct an integrated assessment by linking regional crop productions to national economic outcome, and improve the understanding of the managed and unmanaged agricultural responses to climate change, both of which will support policy making and strategy planning for effective adaptation.