Review of Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

Tropical cyclone track forecasts have improved significantly in recent decades. This is true for both the tracks delivered by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and the tracks delivered by the regional warning centres who issue forecasts on the basis of the model output and other forecasting techniques. In 2010 Heming and Goerss gave an overview of forecasting techniques and models available for tropical cyclone forecasting, including evidence of improvements in performance over the years. Since then the models and techniques in use for this task have continued to evolve and develop. This presentation will provide an updated overview of many of the NWP models and other techniques used for tropical cyclone track prediction. It will also include statistics describing the recent performance of both the models and the regional warning centres.

Heming, J.T. and Goerss, J.S., 2010. Track and Structure Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones Chapter 10, WMO. https://doi.org/10.1142/7597.