Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication

Program Chair: Zhuo Wang , Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Tuesday, 8 January 2019

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 1
Monsoons of the Americas: Variability and Predictability of Extreme Events
Location: North 232AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication
Chairs: William Boos, Univ. of California, Berkeley; Rodrigo Bombardi, Texas A&M Univ.; Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign
8:30 AM
1.1
Multiscale Interactions in Determining the Hydrological Extremes in the American Monsoon Regions
Rong Fu, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and P. Arias and S. Chakraborty
9:00 AM
1.3
South American Monsoon: Variability of Extreme Events and Subseasonal Prediction
Alice M. Grimm, Federal Univ. of Parana, Curitiba, Brazil

9:15 AM
1.4
Convective Events and Water Vapor Transport during the North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network Experiment 2017
David K. Adams, Univ. Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and B. R. Lintner and M. I. Gonzalez
9:30 AM
1.5
Summertime Precipitation in the Lake Mead Watershed
Michael Dean Sierks, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and J. F. Kalansky and F. M. Ralph
9:45 AM
1.6

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Tropical Cyclones: Subseasonal to Interannual Variability and Prediction
Location: North 232AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication; and the Seventh Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chairs: C.-C. Wu, National Taiwan Univ.; Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State Univ.
10:30 AM
J5.1
Dependence of Intraseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction on the MJO in the S2S Dataset
Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and S. J. Camargo, S. Wang, F. Vitart, A. H. Sobel, and M. K. Tippett
10:45 AM
J5.2A
Impact of Central American Orography on Simulation of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes
Dan Fu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and P. Chang, R. Saravanan, and C. M. Patricola
11:00 AM
J5.3
Extratropical Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Activity: A Global Perspective
Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign, Urbana, IL; and G. Zhang

11:15 AM
J5.4
J5.5
Paper J5.5 has moved. New Paper Number is 4.6A.

11:30 AM
J5.5AA
Intraseasonal Variability of the Gulf Stream Current: Physical Mechanisms and Connections to Atmospheric Forcing
Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and A. R. Davies and K. Martin
11:45 AM
J5.6
Multiyear Variability and Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Chuan-Chieh Chang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 2
Tropical Cyclones: Observations, Data Assimilation, and Forecasting I
Location: North 232AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication
Chairs: Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR; Evan Kalina, NOAA/GSD, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, and Developmental Testbed Center
1:30 PM
2.1A
Mobile Sampling of the North American Monsoon
Loren D. White, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and A. O. Tardy
1:45 PM
2.2
Adjoint Sensitivity Diagnosis of Hurricane Irma (2017) Intensity Change
Michael C. Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin−Madison, Madison, WI; and Z. He

2:00 PM
2.3
On the Track Forecast Predictability and Intensity−Outflow Relationship of Hurricane Joaquin (2015)
William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. B. Henson, J. D. Doyle, P. A. Reinecke, and J. R. Moskaitis
2:15 PM
2.4

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 3
Tropical Cyclones: Observations, Data Assimilation, and Forecasting II
Location: North 232AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication
Chairs: Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign; Peter Black, NOAA/AOML
3:00 PM
COAMPS-TC Performance and Future Plans
James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Moskaitis, S. Chen, H. Jin, Y. Jin, W. A. Komaromi, A. Reinecke, and S. Wang
3:15 PM
3.2
3:30 PM
3.3
High-Resolution Nested fvGFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the 2017 and 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons
Andrew Hazelton, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang and S. G. Gopalakrishnan
3:45 PM
3.4
Prediction of Extreme Precipitation Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) fvGFS Model
Kalen Fisher, NCAS-M Howard Univ., Washington, D.C.; and H. M. Archambault, M. J. Morin, S. L. Rees, and B. Stern

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 15
Hurricanes and Health: When Will We Stop “Learning Lessons” and Start Building Smarter?
Location: North 221AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 10th Conference on Environment and Health; and the Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication )
Cochairs: John Balbus, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences; Douglas Hilderbrand, NOAA/NWS; Alan Blumberg, Stevens Institute of Technology
3:00 PM
TJ15.1
Understanding Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Hurricane Irma–Related Power Failures
Paul M. Chakalian, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and D. M. Hondula and L. C. Kurtz
3:15 PM
TJ15.2
3:30 PM
TJ15.3
Words Matter!
H. Michael Mogil, How The Weatherworks, Naples, FL; and M. Bolton
3:45 PM
Discussion

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session
Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Posters I
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication
704
A Recent Reversal in the Poleward Shift of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Yuan Sun, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and Y. Shen

706
Tornado-Scale Vortices in the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer: Numerical Simulation with WRF-LES Framework
Qingyuan Liu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and L. Wu

707
The Basin-Scale HWRF: Developments and Evaluation of 2018 Real-Time Forecasts
Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Poterjoy, M. C. Ko, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, F. D. Marks Jr., and R. St. Fleur

708
Impact of Adjoint-Derived Optimal Perturbations on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Zoe A. Brooke Zibton, Univ. of Wisconsin−Madison, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and B. T. Hoover

712
Spatial and Temporal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Strikes on the Mexican Riviera: 1966−2017
Nicholas S. Grondin, Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA; and B. D. Keim

713
Case Study of the 6–7 September Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Hurricane Irma (2017)
Christopher R Conover, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero

714
Seasonal Cycles in North Atlantic and Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity
Daniel Gilford, Rutgers, The State Univ. of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ; and S. Solomon, K. Emanuel, and D. Rothenberg

Handout (2.3 MB)

716
Seasonal Predictability of Rapid Intensification of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Ching Ho Justin Ng, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi

717
718
Identifying United States Hurricane Risk With Changing Climate
Emma L. Levin, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and H. Murakami

719
Modulating Effects of Mesoscale Oceanic Eddies on Sea Surface Temperature Response to Tropical Cyclones
Zhanhong Ma, College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and L. Yu

721
Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Interannual Variability Using a High-Resolution Tropical Channel Model
Dan Fu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and P. Chang, C. M. Patricola, and R. Saravanan

Poster 722 has moved. New Paper Number is J5.2A.

723
724
The Difference Reason of the Two Inactive Typhoon Periods in Fall in the South China Sea
Yuxing Yang, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China; and J. Zheng

725
Analysis of the Land−Atmosphere Environment of Cyclone Kelvin over Northern Australia: A Possible "Brown Ocean" Case
Andrew Michael Thomas, The Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and J. M. Shepherd and J. A. Santanello Jr.

726
The Patterns of Meteorological Fields to Identify Intraseasonal Precipitation Variability in Central America
Huikyo Lee, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. Groenen, C. R. Mechoso, and M. Garay

728
A Numerical Study on the Influence of Sumatra Island and Synoptic Features on Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Indian Ocean
Chung-Chieh Wang, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and S. K. Ma and R. H. Johnson

729
Elliptical and Polygonal Eyes of Typhoons Induced by Island Topography
Toshihisa Itano, National Defense Academy, Yokosuka, Japan

Wednesday, 9 January 2019

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 4
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
Location: North 232AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication
Chairs: Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign; Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ.
8:30 AM
4.1A
Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Hazard Estimations in a Warming Climate
Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo
8:45 AM
4.2
Diagnosing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Recent Major Hurricanes in Variable-Resolution CAM
Alyssa M. Stansfield, Stony Brook Univ., SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and K. A. Reed, C. M. Zarzycki, and M. F. Wehner
9:00 AM
4.3
Dominant Effect of Relative Tropical Atlantic Warming on Major Hurricane Occurrence in the North Atlantic: 2017 and the Future
Hiroyuki Murakami, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and E. L. Levin, T. L. Delworth, R. Gudgel, and P. C. Hsu
9:30 AM
4.5
Paper 4.6 has moved. New Paper Number is J5.5A.

9:45 AM
4.6A

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 5
Tropical cyclones: Coastal Impacts and Communication
Location: North 232AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication
Chairs: Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan Univ.; Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
10:45 AM
5.2
Tropical Cyclone Hazard to Mumbai in the Recent Historical Climate
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and C. Y. Lee, S. J. Camargo, H. Qureshi, K. Mandli, K. A. Emanuel, P. Mukhopadhyay, and M. Mahakur
11:00 AM
5.3
Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017
Marangelly Fuentes, SSAI and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD; and O. Reale, G. Partyka, L. L. Takacs, and E. McGrath-Spangler

11:30 AM
5.5
Use of a WRF-ADCIRC Ensemble to Explore Storm Surge Predictability Associated with Hurricane Irma (2017)
Alex M. Kowaleski, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. E. Morss, D. A. Ahijevych, K. R. Fossell, and J. L. Evans
11:45 AM
5.6
A Rainfall Evaluation of Deterministic and Ensemble Basin-Scale HWRF
Mu-Chieh Ko, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr., G. J. Alaka Jr., and S. G. Gopalakrishnan

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Lunch Break (Wed)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 6
Tropical Cyclones: Observations, Data Assimilation, and Forecasting III
Location: North 232AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication
Chairs: Scott Braun, NASA/GSFC; Robert G. Nystrom, The Pennsylvania State Univ.
1:30 PM
6.1
1:45 PM
6.2A
2:00 PM
6.3
Review of Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting
Fernando Prates, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and J. T. Heming, L. Magnusson, T. D. Hewson, and I. Tsonevsky
2:15 PM
6.4
Forecasting High-Impact Weather in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using a Warn-on-Forecast System
Thomas A. Jones, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies/Univ. of Oklahoma, and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. S. Skinner, K. H. Knopfmeier, A. E. Reinhart, and D. C. Dowell

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 7
Tropical Cyclones: Observations, Data Assimilation, and Forecasting IV
Location: North 232AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication
Chairs: Thomas Galarneau, The Univ. of Arizona; Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC
3:00 PM
7.1A
3:15 PM
7.2
High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Patricia (2015): Rapid Intensification
Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Ryglicki, H. Jin, J. D. Doyle, and D. Stern
3:30 PM
7.3
3:45 PM
7.4A
Impacts of Mesovortices on the Evolution of Hurricane Harvey (2017)
A. Addison Alford, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session
Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Posters II
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation: Prediction, Impacts, and Communication
1069
Constraints in Dvorak Windspeed Estimates: How Quickly Can Hurricanes Intensify?
Samuel Sangster, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and C. Landsea

1070
An Evaluation of High-Resolution Simulation of Supertyphoon Nepartak (2016)
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin and J. D. Doyle

1071
Ideal Case Studies Using Coupled HWRF-HYCOM
Jili Dong, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and H. S. Kim and A. Mehra

1072
Investigating Hurricane Convection in HWRF
Quinton Anthony Lawton, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and S. Abarca, B. Liu, A. Mehra, A. C. Didlake Jr., and R. Rogers

1073
A Gridded TCM to Support Forecast Operations at National Centers and Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)
Dr. Pablo Santos Jr., NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and D. C. Mattocks, D. C. Forbes, and M. DeMaria

1076
Physical Mechanisms of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Environments with Temporally Varying Vertical Wind Shear
Keenan C. Eure, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. Rios-Berrios and C. A. Davis

1077
A High-Resolution Coupled Model Study of the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Harvey 2017
Chuan-Yuan Hsu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and D. Fu, J. Kurian, P. Chang, and R. Montuoro

1078
Characterization of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Microwave Imagery
Amanda M. Nelson, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH; and O. A. Nava, M. E. Kucas, B. Kosar, and R. D. Loper

1080
The Role of Rainbands on the Storm Intensity Changes
Hua Leighton, NOAA, Miami, FL; and S. M. Hristova-Veleva and S. Gopalakrishnan

1082
Inhibition of Downdrafts by Stable Layers in Tropical Deep Convection
Charles N Helms, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Handout (4.7 MB)

1083
Impact of Cloud Microphysics on Intensification of Tropical Cyclone GONU Using a Convection-Permitting Numerical Model: Isentropic Analyses
Sourav Taraphdar, New York Univ. Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and O. Pauluis

1084
Effect of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Angle on Storm Surge Impacts
Alexandra N. Ramos, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and E. N. Curchitser and C. L. Bruyère

1086
A Flow-Dependent Horizontal Mixing Length Scale and Its Impact on Track Simulations of Harvey (2017) in HWRF
Weiguo Wang, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Liu, L. Zhu, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

Poster 1087 has been moved to paper 2.1A.

1088
Model Simulation Analysis for Storm Surges in the Gulf of Mexico
Duanjun Lu, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and P. C. Yuan, H. R. Shih, T. Black, and D. Jania

1091
Evaluation of the MYNN PBL Scheme for Predicting Tropical Cyclones with HWRF Model
Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. A. Kalina, K. M. Newman, E. Grell, R. G. Fovell, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

1092
Evaluation of the MYNN Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF)
Evan A. Kalina, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and R. G. Fovell, M. K. Biswas, K. M. Newman, E. D. Grell, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Awards Banquet Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)