Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP): Research Efforts Focused on Transitioning to FV3 Based System

The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) approach is designed to accelerate the implementation of promising technologies and techniques from the research community into operations. That approach has resulted in a 20% reduction in both storm track and intensity numerical guidance.

The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act section 4, signed on April 18, 2017, has required NOAA to develop a plan for the future direction of HFIP, detailing the specific research, development, and technology transfer activities associated with HFIP’s next generation of science and R2O challenges. To address this, six key strategies are developed with a goal to design a more effective TC product suite to better communicate the risk. The approach is largely encapsulated in a multi-scale, multi-model system and data assimilation package referred to as the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS). HAFS will provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on TC track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with TCs. HFIP has begun investing in research advances to develop the HAFS by modernizing the global predictions system based on FV3GFS dynamical core while continuing research initiatives with the regional ensembles, telescoping two-way interactive nests, and probabilistic forecasts. This presentation will summarize the results of the ongoing research initiative focused on the plans to transition from the current HWRF configuration to FV3 based system.