COAMPS-TC Performance and Future Plans

The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) has been developed for forecasting tropical cyclone track, structure, and intensity over the past several years and has been run in Navy operations at the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center since 2013. In this presentation, we will provide an update on the latest advancements to the COAMPS-TC system in 2018 and 2019 including: i) several advancements to the physical parameterizations, and ii) improvements to the vortex initialization. An evaluation of a large sample of the real-time forecasts for 2017-2018 in the Atlantic, E. Pacific and W. Pacific basins reveals an improved COAMPS-TC track and intensity predictions making COAMPS-TC one of the leading dynamics models. Progress on further improvements based on advancements to the data assimilation (4D-Var) will be discussed. In addition, results and operational transition of a high-resolution (4 km) 11 member COAMPS-TC ensemble over the W. Atlantic, E. Pacific, and W. Pacific basins will be presented. The COAMPS-TC ensemble was performed in collaboration with the HFIP program, which included high-resolution HWRF and HMON ensembles. The results continue to show considerable promise for probabilistic intensity and track prediction using a multi-agency, multi-model tropical cyclone ensemble approach.