Seasonal Predictability of Rapid Intensification of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

This study concerns with the predictability of rapid intensification (RI) occurrences of North Atlantic tropical cyclones on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. A time lag-zero correlation suggests that tropical cyclones over the open tropical North Atlantic exhibit RI predictability from seasonal large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables, while those over the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean Seas do not. In particular, the interannual variability of vertical wind shear (VWS) and relative sea-surface temperature (RELSST) is more significant and negatively correlated in the former region, which in conjunction with the varying mean states over these regions is consistent with the lack of seasonal predictability in the latter. On the other hand, the Madden-Julian Oscillation may provide potential for subseasonal predictability of RI in both regions. Further, conditional on the existence of tropical cyclones, VWS and RELSST fluctuations on daily timescales are correlated with RI activity.