Spatial and Temporal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Strikes on the Mexican Riviera: 1966−2017

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive meteorological phenomena and impact the lives of people on the coast around the world. The Pacific coastline of Mexico, the Mexican Riviera, borders the second most active TC development region in the world, the northeastern Pacific (NE Pac) basin. The Mexican Riviera is home to a growing population and cities engaged in a variety of economic activities, most prominently agriculture, fishing, and tourism. We analyze fifty-two (1966-2017) years of NE Pac TC strikes along the Mexican Riviera by applying track data from the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT2 and a TC size model to determine TC strikes at forty locations along the Riviera. An average TC model is used, whereby tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricane strikes are determined for each location. These data are used to construct time series and return periods for each location. Results indicate varying patterns of strike frequency across the Riviera, with “hot spots” along the southwestern coast (centered on Manzanillo, Colima), on the southern tip of Baja California Sur, on the State of Sinaloa, and on Isla Socorro, part of the Revillagigedo Island chain. Temporal variation of TC strikes show that very active seasons in the basin, such as 1985 and 1992, did not necessarily yield a large percentage of storms striking these locations, while some less active seasons, such as 1995, yielded a much higher percentage of striking storms. We also analyze each location’s strikes in comparison to El Niño and non-El Niño years to analyze additional variability in each location’s strikes to determine if ENSO plays a role in the tropical cyclone strike climatology of the region. These results have utility for coastal planning and for emergency managers in western and southern Mexico, in addition to providing an understanding of the risk each of these locations have to TC activity and how each location’s vulnerability is changing with time.