Hurricane Risk Communication and Decision-Making in the Modern Information Environment (Invited Presentation)

The 2017 Atlantic tropical cyclone season — including Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria — caused devastating damage, loss of life, and disruption in the U.S. and Caribbean. Tropical cyclone forecasts have improved significantly during the last few decades, but accurately predicting where and when a tropical cyclone will make landfall remains challenging. It is even more challenging to predict the wind and flooding hazards and associated impacts that different people will experience, especially with enough advance warning for coastal residents to evacuate safely before landfall. This presentation will discuss research to understand and improve risk communication and protective decision making for approaching hurricanes and other weather-related hazards. I will discuss major factors that influence interpretation and use of weather forecasts and warnings, illustrated using example findings from recent research using interviews, surveys, analysis of social media data, and other methodologies. I will also discuss how recent advances in information and communication technology are transforming how people access, share, and use weather-related information, and what this means for modern tropical cyclone forecasting and risk communication.