Effect of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Angle on Storm Surge Impacts

Storm surge is often the most damaging threat resulting from a tropical cyclone. The magnitude of the storm surge impact depends on various tropical cyclone characteristics including the angle of the winds at landfall, as well as the size and intensity of the storm. Although the factors contributing to storm surge are known, uncertainties remain regarding the level of sensitivity to these tropical cyclone characteristics. Storm surge impact studies often focus on hindcasting past tropical cyclone-induced storm surge events. Less focus has been given to the study of storm surge predictability, which is largely constrained by the limited historical record. This work seeks to understand storm surge impacts in the Northeast US as a function of various tropical cyclone characteristics, with a focus on the impact of landfall angle. We will perform a set of model simulations of synthetic tropical cyclones using the Hybrid WRF Cyclone Model, which allows us to surpass the limitations imposed by the length of the historical record. Wind and atmospheric pressure field output from the Hybrid WRF Cyclone Model will then be used as atmospheric forcing for the Advance Circulation Model (ADCIRC), from which we will obtain maximum water elevation for storm surge assessment. We expect that storm surge impacts will be highly sensitive to changes in the angle of landfall of tropical cyclones, and that these impacts will become a bigger threat in a future climate setting. The approach taken in this study will allow for better storm surge assessment and a deeper understanding of the sensitivity of storm surge to tropical cyclone characteristics.