Multiyear Variability and Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

A hybrid model was developed to predict Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity on the multi-year time scale based on the large ensemble decadal prediction dataset using the Community Earth System Model. The correlation between the observed and predicted 5-year-mean TC counts is 0.88, and it is 0.79 for 5-year-mean accumulated cyclone energy during 1955-2016. The extratropical forcing was found to play an important role modulating Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in addition to tropical SST, and the underlying dynamic mechanisms were further investigated using the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim reanalyses.