Sample Optimization of Ensemble Forecast to Simulate Tropical Cyclone Based on the Observed Track and Intensity

Ensemble members sometimes deviate from the true atmospheric state, so these inferior samples that belonging to small probability events may downgrade the accuracy of an ensemble forecast. In this study, to investigate the evolution of tropical cyclones ,Haima and Hato, the observed track and intensity are both used to restrict the probability distribution of samples. Compared with the use of only one track standard, prediction results show that double standard criteria can more significantly improve track, intensity, and rainfall of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it can be concluded that the use of double standards, which include both track and intensity is significantly better than a single track standard.