High-Resolution Nested fvGFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the 2017 and 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

FV3GFS is a next-generation hurricane prediction model that has been shown to have skill for predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) track, intensity, and structure. In this study, a high-resolution nested version of FV3GFS run at NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division (HRD) is evaluated for several high-profile case studies from the 2017 and 2018 Atlantic Hurricane seasons. In addition to the typical track and intensity metrics, the structure of the model forecasts is evaluated through comparisons with high-resolution Doppler Radar and other observational datasets from HRD. The case studies focus on the processes leading to rapid intensification, particularly in marginally favorable environments (such as when moderate shear is present). FV3GFS forecasts are also evaluated vs. other state-of-the art hurricane models like the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model as well as experimental models such as HRD’s Basin-Scale HWRF. These evaluations motivate ongoing improvements to model dynamics, physics, and data assimilation to better initialize and predict the structure of TCs.