Toward the Implementation of the National Ocean Service’s Lake Michigan and Huron Operational Forecast System (LMHOFS)

A new operational forecast system is being developed for the Lake Michigan and Huron region by Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) and National Ocean Service (NOS). Lake Michigan and Huron Operational Forecast System (LMHOFS) uses the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) to provide users with nowcast (analyses of near present) and forecast guidance of water levels, currents, and water temperature out to 120 hours, four times per day. Lake Michigan is connected to Lake Huron via the Straits of Mackinac. The two bodies of water need to be combined in an integrated grid in the model to obtain accurate hydrodynamic results. Otherwise, the water exchange through the Straits will be misrepresented, and the model results may be synoptically wrong. By combining Lake Michigan and Lake Huron into one model grid and invoking advanced model schemes and algorithms, LMHOFS is expected to provide more accurate information than NOAA’s existing Lake Michigan OFS (LMOFS) and Lake Huron OFS (LHOFS), which have separate model domains based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Future improvements to LMHOFS include the development of an ice forecast and coupling with the National Water Model. The planned development and operational implementation of LMHOFS will provide reliable information to help pilots and mariners safely and efficiently navigate through Lake Michigan and Huron, and also provide high-quality digital support for coastal zone management and hazard mitigation in this Great Lakes region.

KEYWORDS: Lake Michigan and Huron, Nowcast/Forecast Systems, FVCOM