Marcia McNutt (B.A. in physics, Colorado College; Ph.D. in Earth sciences, Scripps Institution of Oceanography) is a geophysicist and the 22nd president of the National Academy of Sciences.

From 2013 to 2016, she was editor-in-chief of Science journals. McNutt was director of the U.S. Geological Survey from 2009 to 2013, during which time USGS responded to a number of major disasters, including the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. For her work to help contain that spill, McNutt was awarded the U.S. Coast Guard’s Meritorious Service Medal.

She is a fellow of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Geological Society of America, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the International Association of Geodesy. McNutt is a member of the American Philosophical Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a Foreign Member of the Royal Society, UK, and the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In 1998, McNutt was awarded the AGU’s Macelwane Medal for research accomplishments by a young scientist, and she received the Maurice Ewing Medal in 2007 for her contributions to deep-sea exploration.

In response to this need, this session is proposed to stimulate discussion and exchange related to statistical methodologies and various relevant areas of environmental science, with a focus on maritime studies. Statistical modeling of complex extreme events has developed rapidly in recent years; theoretical analysis has transitioned to statistical tools with many environmental applications. We hope to examine the state of the art in present statistical tools, to identify challenges and opportunities, and to motivate new research interactions and developments. 

Presentations from all areas of environmental science are welcome. For example, marine mesoscale extreme events are the result of the combination of environmental factors that can be related. Coastal flooding can result from nonlinear interactions of multiple oceanographic, hydrological, geological, and meteorological processes (e.g. tides, sea-level anomalies, storm surge, waves, winds, fluvial discharges, precipitation, and land subsidence). Moreover, although the exceptional extreme variation of a single process (e.g. storm surge) can result in coastal flooding, the more normal situation is that a combination of notably high values of more than one process constitutes the precursor mechanism, thereby making a compound extreme event. Additional topics can consider extremes related to lake-effect (or lake modified) systems and coastal extreme weather.  Moreover, the relevant processes are not stationary, but vary with season, and on time scales of years, decades, etc., with changing climate. Thus, characteristics of an extreme event may be described as the extreme nature of the impact rather than the individual component factors, the multivariate nature of the impact, and the statistical dependence of component factors.

Dangerous Storms at Sea

Extratropical and tropical cyclones produce rapidly changing and extreme weather conditions over large areas of the ocean, threatening the safety of life at sea, causing billions of dollars in time lost and ship and cargo damage annually, and damaging coastal communities. However, there remain significant gaps in our understanding of these storms. Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is an important forecast challenge that is receiving increasing attention in operations and research. Less well-known, but also critical, rapid extratropical cyclogenesis at sea presents a unique forecast problem that requires a greater understanding of air–sea interaction and coupled model improvements, particularly in areas such as the heavily traveled intersection of major coastal storm tracks and the Gulf Stream.

Weather Forecast Needs of the Maritime Industry

The maritime industry would benefit from products and services that extend the forecast horizon beyond the present focus on days 0–4; provide probabilistic forecasts of hazards and high waves; and improve prediction of sea ice development, movement, and decay. Additionally, as cargo and cruise ships continue to get larger, carrying ever more goods and passengers, consideration must be given to providing forecasts and hazardous weather warnings that address the challenges such large ships must face. Stronger public–private partnerships within the maritime weather enterprise will help ensure mariners get the best possible forecasts and warning services.

Weather Observations on the High Seas

Strengthening the global ocean observing system (in situ and satellite based) and achieving optimal spatial distribution is an international challenge highlighted by the WMO Marine Meteorology and Oceanography Programme. A more robust engagement with commercial vessel operators is needed to increase the number and quality of weather observations from ships of opportunity, improving forecasts. Efforts to increase international collaboration and the sharing of remotely sensed ocean surface vector winds and altimeter data are needed to better analyze and predict areas of dangerous winds and waves at sea.

Future of Communication and Dissemination Systems for Mariners

Challenges exist in exchanging information among ships, national hydrometeorological centers, and commercial weather providers. Recent incidents at sea demonstrate that such challenges may adversely impact decision-making by mariners.  This situation is further exacerbated by a maritime weather infrastructure that remains heavily reliant on decades-old technology for dissemination, such as radiofax and text broadcasts.

Dangerous Storms at Sea

Extratropical and tropical cyclones produce rapidly changing and extreme weather conditions over large areas of the ocean, threatening the safety of life at sea, causing billions of dollars in time lost and ship and cargo damage annually, and damaging coastal communities. However, there remain significant gaps in our understanding of these storms. Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is an important forecast challenge that is receiving increasing attention in operations and research. Less well-known, but also critical, rapid extratropical cyclogenesis at sea presents a unique forecast problem that requires a greater understanding of air–sea interaction and coupled model improvements, particularly in areas such as the heavily traveled intersection of major coastal storm tracks and the Gulf Stream.

Weather Forecast Needs of the Maritime Industry

The maritime industry would benefit from products and services that extend the forecast horizon beyond the present focus on days 0–4; provide probabilistic forecasts of hazards and high waves; and improve prediction of sea ice development, movement, and decay. Additionally, as cargo and cruise ships continue to get larger, carrying ever more goods and passengers, consideration must be given to providing forecasts and hazardous weather warnings that address the challenges such large ships must face. Stronger public–private partnerships within the maritime weather enterprise will help ensure mariners get the best possible forecasts and warning services.

Weather Observations on the High Seas

Strengthening the global ocean observing system (in situ and satellite based) and achieving optimal spatial distribution is an international challenge highlighted by the WMO Marine Meteorology and Oceanography Programme. A more robust engagement with commercial vessel operators is needed to increase the number and quality of weather observations from ships of opportunity, improving forecasts. Efforts to increase international collaboration and the sharing of remotely sensed ocean surface vector winds and altimeter data are needed to better analyze and predict areas of dangerous winds and waves at sea.

Future of Communication and Dissemination Systems for Mariners

Challenges exist in exchanging information among ships, national hydrometeorological centers, and commercial weather providers. Recent incidents at sea demonstrate that such challenges may adversely impact decision-making by mariners.  This situation is further exacerbated by a maritime weather infrastructure that remains heavily reliant on decades-old technology for dissemination, such as radiofax and text broadcasts.