A Modeling Study of Hurricane Maria Rapid Intensification and Eyewall Replacement Cycle over the Eastern Caribbean

In this study, Hurricane Maria (2017) was further investigated with the focus on rapidly intensifying from a category 1 to 5 hurricane in just 15 hours. It is essential to understand the linkage between cloud-microphysical properties that enhanced Maria’s rapid intensification (RI) and eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) during a short period of time in well favored environmental conditions. Hurricane Maria crossed the Eastern Caribbean islands from September 17^th to September 21^st 2017. High resolution (1 km) numerical simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) with initial conditions from GFS model and the Thompson microphysics scheme as the control case. Sensitivity tests were conducted on environmental conditions such as sea surface temperature, vertical shear, ocean heat content. Storm structural, thermodynamic changes in the eyewall region as well as cloud microphysical properties such as ice content, hydrometeors (ice, snow, graupel, rain and cloud droplets) were analyzed. The simulation results will be compared to NHC observation data to evaluate any possible improvements in the model’s forecast of such event. The goal of this study is to gain more incites on predicting these processes in a timely fashion and to improve the predictability of models resolving mesoscale processes in the eyewall region