Joint Poster Session 1 Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection

Program Chairs: Gretchen L. Mullendore , Univ. of North Dakota ; Thomas J. Galarneau Jr. , Univ. of Arizona

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Sunday, 6 January 2019

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Plenary Session
Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times
Location: North Ballroom 120CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum and Annual Meeting Welcome; the Seventh Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 16th Conference on Space Weather; the 17th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 22nd Atmospheric Science Librarians International Conference; the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Symposium on Education; the 35th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 23rd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Ninth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Seventh Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the Fifth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Phased Array Radar Symposium; the Special Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation; the Ninth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Ninth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the 10th Conference on Environment and Health; the 18th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; the Richard Anthes Symposium; the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; the Second Conference on Earth Observing SmallSats; the Seventh AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Ninth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 11th Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 21st Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Fourth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the Events )
Moderator: Michael Henry, American Institute of Physics
Presider: Roger Wakimoto, Univ. of California, Los Angeles
Speakers: Dan Kahan, American Institute of Physics; David Goldston, MIT
4:00 PM
Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times

4:00 PM-6:30 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Presidential Forum and Annual Meeting Welcome
Location: North Ballroom 120CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Plenary Session
Annual Meeting Welcome
Location: North Ballroom 120CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum and Annual Meeting Welcome; the Fourth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Ninth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the 16th Conference on Space Weather; the 17th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 22nd Atmospheric Science Librarians International Conference; the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Symposium on Education; the Ninth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the 21st Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 11th Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Ninth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Second Conference on Earth Observing SmallSats; the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; and the Events )
Moderator: Roger Wakimoto, Univ. of California, Los Angeles

Monday, 7 January 2019

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


AMS Information Desk (Monday)
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Quiet Room (Monday)
Location: West 206 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Registration (Monday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Speaker Ready Room (Monday)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 1
State-of-the-Art Physical Science Aspects of Mesoscale Extreme Events—Part I
Location: North 221AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection
Cochairs: Thomas Galarneau, The Univ. of Arizona; Gretchen Mullendore, Univ. of North Dakota
Introductory Remarks
Thomas Galarneau, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and G. Mullendore

9:00 AM
1.2A
Sensitivity of High-Impact Extratropical Cyclones to Mesoscale Water Vapor Structure
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and C. M. Amerault
9:15 AM
1.3
9:30 AM
1.4

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Guest Coffee (Monday)
Location: Camelback A (Sheraton Hotel )

9:00 AM-7:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Poster Hall (Monday)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Monday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:00 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Member Services Desk (Monday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 2
Understanding the Mechanisms, Predictability and Impacts of Connected Mesoscale Extremes
Location: North 221AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection
Cochairs: James Done, NCAR; Cindy Bruyère, NCAR
10:30 AM
2.1
11:00 AM
2.3
Scale-Interactive Processes in the Evolution of Multiepisode Tornado Outbreaks in the Southeastern U.S.
Manda B. Chasteen, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. E. Koch
11:15 AM
2.4
Historical Depiction and Future Projection of Weakly Forced Yet High-Impact Convective Storms in Central U.S.
Binod Pokharel, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang, R. Gillies, and J. D. D. Meyer
11:30 AM
2.5
Assessing the Connection between Atmospheric River Events and Exploring their Relation to Extratropical and Tropical Large-Scale Drivers
Meredith A. Fish, SIO/Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and A. M. Wilson, A. J. Miller, and F. M. Ralph
11:45 AM
2.6
Dynamics of and Precursors to California Megafloods, Present and Future
Daniel Swain, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and X. Huang and B. Langenbrunner

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Lunch Break (Monday)

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Daily Weather Briefings (Monday)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


How to Become a Better Presenter
Location: North 231C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Recording files available
Session 3
Synoptic–Dynamic and Quantitative Attribution for Extreme Weather and Climate Events
Location: North 221AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection
Cochairs: Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State Univ.; Emily Becker, NOAA
2:00 PM
3.1
2:15 PM
3.2
Attributing Extreme Déjà Vu Events: Hurricane Harvey and Louisiana Flood
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and L. Zhao, J. Yoon, P. J. Klotzbach, and R. Gillies
2:30 PM
3.3A
Long-Range Aerosol Transport via Rossby Wave Breaking during Atmospheric River Events on the Western U.S.
Catherine N Liu, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and J. M. Ryoo and S. Chiao

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 4
State-of-the-Art Physical Science Aspects of Mesoscale Extreme Events—Part II
Location: North 221AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection
Cochairs: Thomas Galarneau, The Univ. of Arizona; Gretchen Mullendore, Univ. of North Dakota
3:00 PM
4.1
3:15 PM
4.2
Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation: Why Mountains Are Different
Dale Durran, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and X. Shi
3:30 PM
Lightning Round Student Poster Presentations and Concluding Remarks
Thomas Galarneau, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and G. Mullendore

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


2019 NWA/AMS Research Operations Nexus (RON) Meetup-Honoring the Legacy of Ronald W. Przybylinski
Location: North Ballroom 120AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Formal Poster Viewing Reception
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 1
Poster Session for Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection
Cochairs: Thomas Galarneau, The Univ. of Arizona; Gretchen Mullendore, Univ. of North Dakota
329
Measuring Vertical Mass Flux in Convection: Lessons Learned from a Convection-Resolving Ensemble
Derek J. Posselt, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and S. C. van den Heever, Z. S. Haddad, G. L. Stephens, L. D. Grant, R. L. Storer, and O. O. Sy

331
Improved Projections through Dynamical Downscaling
Muge Komurcu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel, M. Huber, and R. P. Acosta

332
Ensemble Precipitation Forecasting with Adaptive Parameterization Selection
Tyler J. Wixtrom, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

333
Discussion about the Conditional Symmetric Instability in Operational Application
LINA ZHANG, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

334
Challenges Associated with Predicting High-Impact, Organized Convection in Weakly Forced Flow Regimes
Logan C. Dawson, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. M. Bentley, T. A. Dorian, and G. S. Manikin

335
Stratocumulus Response to a SST Front in Kuroshio Extension: In Situ Observations and Mechanism
Su-Ping Zhang, Ocean Univ. of China, Qingdao, China; and Y. Wang, L. YI, H. K. Liu, and Q. Wang

336
Object-Oriented Composite Analysis of Warm-Sector Rainfall in North China
Jiaolan Fu, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and F. Zhang

337
Possible Link of Extreme Hourly Precipitation to Urbanization in Coastal South China
Yali Luo, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and M. Wu and F. Chen

338
Assessment of Monthly Rainfall Profile for Umudike, Abia State, Nigeria
Eric Olewuike, National Root Crops Research Institute, Abia State, Nigeria

Poster 340 has moved. New Paper Number is 3.3A.

341
A Diagnostic Method for Detecting Frontal Boundaries and Structures
Edward Strobach, NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

342
The Role of Air–Sea Coupling in the Superstorm of 1993
Caitlyn A. Gillespie, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and V. Misra and A. Bhardwaj

343
Diagnostic Analyses and Numerical Modeling of an Explosive Cyclone over the Northwestern Pacific on 11–13 January 2012
Guanlan Wang, National Meteorological Center, Beijing, China; and B. Sun, Y. Sun, P. Li, and G. Fu

344
Ensemble Experiments of Meso-Beta-Scale Vortex that Caused a Sudden Gusty Wind over the Sea
Eigo Tochimoto, The Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase

345
Cyclone Families, Atmospheric Rivers, and Hydrometeorological Extremes over the Eastern U.S.
Jason M. Cordeira, Plymouth State Univ., Plymouth, NH; and N. D. Metz, M. Fish, C. Hohman, and M. Duncan

347
Is there Scale Invariance in Atmospheric Vortices?
Huaqing Cai, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM

Poster 346 has moved. New Paper Number is 1.2A.

348
Predictability and Dynamics of the Record-Breaking Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)
Robert G. Nystrom, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and F. Zhang

349
An Energetic Perspective of Hurricane Patricia (2015) as a Heat Engine through Isentropic Analysis
Robert G. Nystrom, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and F. Zhang, X. Chen, and O. Pauluis

350
Exploring Interbasin Correlations of Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Cyclone Losses
John K Hillier, Loughborough Univ., Loughborough, United Kingdom; and J. Done and H. Steptoe

351
A Climatology of Indirect Tropical Cyclone Interactions in the Atlantic Basin
Kevin C. Prince, Univ. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

352
Evaluating Impacts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using a Hybrid WRF Cyclone Model
Cindy L. Bruyère, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Holland, B. W. Buckley, A. Jaye, and J. Done

353
The Use of Helicity in Parametrization of Planetary Boundary Layer Structure: Case Study on Tropical Cyclone
Leiming Ma, Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai, China

354
How Does Terrain Impact Upscale Convective Growth of Orogenic Deep Moist Convection?
Jake Mulholland, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp and S. W. Nesbitt

355
358
Understanding Subtropical MCSs in Argentina Using WRF
Jeremiah Otero Piersante, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. L. Rasmussen, G. Romine, D. J. Gagne II, and A. Morales

359
Origin of Near-Surface Vertical Vorticity of Mesovortices in a Quasi-Linear Convective System
Christian H. Boyer, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. Dahl

80A
Statistical Analysis of Warm Season Ice Cloud Properties in Mesoscale Convective Systems over Great Plains
Jingjing Tian, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Dong and B. Xi

361
Sensitivity of MCS Outflow Characteristics to Low-Level Stability and Shear
Stacey M. Hitchcock, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and K. R. Haghi

362
Analysis of Backbuilding of a Simulated MCS in an Environment with a Low-Level Stable Layer
Stacey M. Hitchcock, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

363
Linked Gulf Coast and Florida Convective Storm Challenges during 16–20 May 2016
Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. C. Wallace

364
Unmanned Aircraft Systems for Severe Local Storm Research and Forecasting
Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska−Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and B. Argrow and E. W. Frew

365
Convection-Allowing Ensemble Analysis and Prediction of Tornadic Thunderstorms with Assimilation of GOES-R All-Sky Radiances and WSR-88D Radar Observations
Fuqing Zhang, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. Zhang, D. J. Stensrud, and M. Minamide

366
Exploring the "Surprise" 24 August 2016 Indiana–Ohio–Ontario Tornado Outbreak with Meso- and Storm-Scale Ensemble Simulations
Daniel T. Dawson II, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. E. Baldwin, L. J. Wicker, and K. H. Knopfmeier

368
Improving Forecasting of Tornadic Development in Convective Storms
Paul Zechiel, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and S. Chiao

369
Observed Bulk Hook Echo Drop-Size Distribution Evolution in Supercell Tornadogenesis
Kristofer S. Tuftedal, Stony Brook Univ., SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. M. French, D. M. Kingfield, and J. C. Snyder

370
"Volatility of Tornadogenesis" in VORTEX2 Near- and Far-Field Environments
Matthew D. Flournoy, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. Rasmussen and M. C. Coniglio

371
Examination of Recent TORFF Events in and around Houston, Texas
Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

373
The Day of the Downbursts—May 23, 2017 Sealy and Beeville, TX
Jeffry S. Evans, NOAA/NWS/Weather Forecast Office, Dickinson, TX; and L. Wood and T. Johnstone

374
The Radar Signature of Fatal Convective Wind Events in Spring over South China
Haiyan Fei, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

375
Statistical Analysis of Hail-Accumulating Thunderstorm Occurrence along the Colorado Front Range
Michaela Serpas, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; and K. Friedrich and R. Wallace

377
Analysis of Hailstone Temporal and Spatial Variability over the Central United States
Jong-Hoon Jeong, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. Fan and Y. Zhang

378
Banded Convection Activity Associated with Gravity Waves over Southern China
Yu Du, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and F. Zhang

379
Lifecycle and Impacts of MCS Convectively Generated Low-Frequency Gravity Waves
Rebecca Adams-Selin, NOAA; and R. S. Schumacher

Handout (12.7 MB)

380
Analysis of Convectively Generated Gravity Waves in the 14–15 July 2015 Mesoscale Convective System during PECAN
Faith P. Groff, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and R. Adams-Selin

381
Shallow Foehn on the Northern Leeside of Tianshan Mountains and Its Influence on the Boundary Layer over Urumqi, China—A Climatological Study
Xia Li Sr., Institute of Desert Meteorology, Urumqi, China; and S. Zhong, L. Luo Sr., X. Xia, X. Yu, J. Jia, Y. Liu, K. Zhao, and Q. Ren

382
Diablo Winds: Extreme Wind Events over Central and Northern California
Clifford F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. T. McClung

383
Sundowner Winds of Santa Barbara County
Brian P. Frei, NWS, New Brunswick, NJ; and T. Hall

384
A Mesoscale Simulation of a Mountain Wave Wind Event Associated with the Chimney Tops 2 Fire (2016)
Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service, Lansing, MI; and R. P. Shadbolt and H. Fromm

389
A Tale of Two Potential Snow Squall Situations across Central New York
Michael L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Johnson City, NY

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Exhibits Opening and Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Ribbon Cutting, Opening Reception, and Corporate Patron Recognition
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Fifth Annual Speed Networking Event for Students and Early Career Professionals
Location: North Ballroom 120AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Tuesday, 8 January 2019

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Maritime Environmental Extremes
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; and the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment )
Cochairs: Will Perrie, Bedford Institute of Oceanography; Alan Blumberg, Stevens Institute of Technology
8:30 AM
J3.1
The Impact of Climate Change on the Wave Climate in the Gulf of St. Lawrence
Lei Wang, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Canada; and W. Perrie, Z. Long, G. Zhang, B. Toulany, and M. Zhang
8:45 AM
J3.2
The Boundary Layer Character of Spring Sea Fog Inland Penetration over the Coastal Area of Qingdao
Li YI, Ocean Univ. of China, Qingdao, China; and S. P. Zhang and S. Song

9:00 AM
J3.3
Observations of Variations in Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Stratocumulus over a Mesoscale Warm Eddy in the Kuroshio Extension
Qian Wang, SIO/Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and S. P. Zhang, S. P. Xie, J. R. Norris, J. X. Sun, and Y. X. Jiang
9:30 AM
J3.5
9:45 AM
J3.6
Moderation of Extreme Heat along the Coasts of the Eastern United States
Colin Raymond, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and J. S. Mankin

Wednesday, 9 January 2019

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Maritime Extreme Weather: Challenges and Opportunities
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; and the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise )
Cochairs: Kathryn Gilbert, NCEP; Thomas J. Cuff, NOAA/NWS/Ocean Prediction Center; Mona Behl, The Univ. of Georgia
2:15 PM
J4.4
Crowdsourcing Marine Observations with mPING
Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Berry and A. Gerard

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Joint Poster Session 1
Maritime Extreme Weather: Challenges and Opportunities
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment )
Cochairs: Kathryn K. Gilbert, NOAA/NWS; Thomas J. Cuff, NOAA/NWS/Ocean Prediction Center; Michael J. DeFlorio, NASA
1093
Spatial Analysis of Ship Traffic in the North Atlantic Ocean during Severe Weather from March 12–19, 2018
Nicole Ashley Casamassina, NCEP, College Park, MD; and J. M. Sienkiewicz and L. J. Phillips

1096