The task of analyzing mesoscale circulation systems (e.g., mesoscale convective systems) and projecting them for future climate scenarios presents several challenges to the meteorology community. The first major challenge involves a disciplinary barrier, since doing the former requires mesoscale meteorology training and performing the latter needs climate analysis training. However, weather and climate have traditionally been treated as separate disciplines in most atmospheric science and meteorology programs. Therefore, when it comes to projecting future mesoscale weather systems, the interpretation of mesoscale dynamics often falls short, missing key details in the large-ensemble statistics. Likewise, not too many experts of mesoscale weather systems are engaged in long-term projection studies.
The statistical approaches of conducting extreme event attribution and projection have matured, becoming automated while forming a mainstream methodology; this is largely built upon extreme-value and return-period analysis. However, synoptic–dynamic attribution for extreme weather (i.e. detailed analysis and dynamical diagnosis of an event of interest) and putting it into perspective of future climate projections has not received as much attention. Perhaps one issue is that the generality of results from a single case study is not always clear. Yet, as reanalysis and climate model datasets continue to increase in resolution and begin to resolve mesoscale circulation systems, opportunities exist to apply synoptic–dynamic meteorological reasoning to understand interaction across scales between mesoscale circulation systems and climate.
In this session, we encourage submissions of mesoscale extreme event diagnoses from both the statistical and synoptic–dynamic meteorology approach. Examples of methods for the latter approach include (but are not limited to) climatology and case study analysis of mesoscale circulation systems and their attendant extreme events utilizing high-resolution convection-resolving modeling and/or large global and regional model ensemble simulations. The papers in this session will aim to study and understand the statistics and synoptic–dynamic meteorology of mesoscale meteorological extremes, including the two-way interaction between mesoscale circulations and the larger-scale climate system.
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