In the lead up to a mesoscale extreme event, much attention is focused on the latest predictions and emergency preparations. Yet, such an extreme event may be linked to another high-impact event, either in a causal chain or through large-scale influences. Understanding these connections has the potential to improve predictions of, and responses to, mesoscale extreme events.
Connections among mesoscale extremes are multiscale, from short-time-scale cold-pool outflows triggering neighboring convection to decadal variability of the global circulation that favors concurrent and distant extremes. Tropical and extratropical cyclones, for example, can exhibit temporal clustering, and tropical convection can trigger a global response through Rossby wave trains. Connections can also lead to multihazard events, such as the Thomas fire in California enhancing mudslide and flash flood risk. The full range of physical mechanisms that connect mesoscale extremes and the strength of the connections is only beginning to be explored and may include multiscale wave dynamics, coupled Earth system processes, and persistence of anomalies from days to decades.
Connected mesoscale extremes and their impacts present a challenge and an opportunity for disaster mitigation and risk management. Reinsurance, for example, is based on the premise of independent extremes. This premise is challenged by our new understanding of connected hazards and our increasingly connected society in which impacts from an extreme event may change our exposure and vulnerability in ways that change the likelihood of another high-impact event. For example, the 2012 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest derecho knocked out power to millions, thus exposing many more people to heat risk. Accounting for this connectivity presents opportunities to develop robust disaster mitigation and risk management practices.
This session explores how scientists and risk management experts conceptualize connected mesoscale extremes and impacts. We welcome presentations that explore dynamical and statistical insights into connected mesoscale extremes and impacts, developing statistical and dynamical prediction systems for connected mesoscale extremes and impacts, and challenges and potential solutions to connected events for risk management.
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