A Tale of Two Potential Snow Squall Situations across Central New York

A strong surface cold front and upper-tropospheric shortwave trough were forecast to approach Central New York on 1 February 2018, resulting in the development of a band of snow squalls during the late afternoon and early evening. Impact-based decision support services provided by the National Weather Service office in Binghamton, NY, as well as social media messaging, advertised the likelihood of adverse travel conditions during the evening commute period. As it turns out, snow showers were more poorly organized than expected, with little or no impact to motorists.

Early the next morning, on 2 February 2018, a band of intense snow squalls developed near the southern shore of Lake Ontario. These snow squalls later significantly impacted the morning commute in the Syracuse, NY metropolitan area, with rapid accumulations of 10 to 15 cm (4 to 6 in.) within a two-hour time frame. Cursory evidence suggests these squalls were tied to the development of a lake-enhanced mesoscale vortex. Although, these squalls were not as well anticipated, they prompted the issuance of a Snow Squall Warning. The issuance of this warning was not only a first for the National Weather Service in Binghamton, but the first-ever issuance of a Snow Squall Warning in the National Weather Service.

Synoptic and mesoscale factors leading to both the underachieving nature of the 1 February event and “overachieving” nature of the 2 February case will be examined. This examination will be performed using snow squall forecasting techniques similar to those outlined in a 2014 paper authored by Banacos, et al. Technological and dissemination challenges associated with the first-ever National Weather Service Snow Squall Warning issuance will also be discussed.