Prediction of Extreme Weather, Landfalling Hurricane Nate, and Flood Events: The WRF Model Simulations

The WRF model was used to forecast and investigate the extreme weather and flood events, including Hurricane Nate's track and intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. The nested domains were used for the WRF model simulations. Severe weather, such as thunderstorms, frequently occurs in summer at New Orleans, causing heavy floods. Floods cause more property damage and loss of life than any other natural disasters. In this study, we investigate the floods from Hurricane Nate’s landfall in the coastal areas. To assess the accuracy of the WRF model, the forecasted rainfalls are compared with the observed rainfalls.

In general, hurricanes are favorably formed over the warm water in the tropical ocean with above normal sea surface temperatures. Hurricane Nate originated as a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean and then became an active thunderstorm in the east of Nicaragua. It became Tropical Storm Nate and triggered deadly flooding in parts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Hurricane Nate then began moving toward the north-north west, entered the Gulf of Mexico, and became Category 1 hurricane. The intensification of Hurricane Nate is due to the body of warm water, which is related to the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) in the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall in southeast Louisiana. Heavy rainfalls occurred in the spiral rain-bands. Nate made a second landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi and caused coastal flooding across the Florida panhandle. Then the storm turned northeast across Alabama and caused flooding, dumping 4–5 inches of rain and up to 5.55 inches of rain near Elba, Alabama. It has been suggested that the record hurricanes in 2017 are linked to the climate change.