Analysis of the Gálvez–Davison Index for Convective Forecasts in Africa Using the GALWEM

From the hot, arid Sahara Desert to the humid, West African monsoon, Africa is a continent with vastly different weather and climate patterns from one region to the next. For this reason, thunderstorm forecasting over Africa has presented significant difficulty. The Gálvez Davison Index (GDI) was developed for the Americas and provides a more accurate convective forecasting index than some of the conventional indices for thunderstorm forecasting, including the K index. Previous research using the GDI via the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model data over Africa showed promising results for areal coverage (Donndelinger 2018), especially during the spring through fall months. This study will look to test the GDI via the US Air Force’s Global Air Land Weather Exploitation Model (GALWEM) to determine if the GALWEM GDI forecast is able to more accurately forecast the location and areal coverage, as well as resolve airmass thunderstorms, when compared to the GFS GDI forecast.