1.1 The Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Program Update

Monday, 7 January 2019: 8:30 AM
North 232C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Fred Toepfer, NOAA/Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, MD; and H. L. Tolman, I. Stajner, and V. Tallapragada

The National Weather Service (NWS) has established a Research to Operations (R2O) initiative to create an advanced Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) to provide more reliable forecasts, and to address growing service demands for a Weather Ready Nation. By accelerating model development, implementing improved model components, utilizing NOAA’s new high-performance computing (HPC) capabilities, and advancing the processing of data, NGGPS will:

  • Extend forecast skill beyond 8 to 10 days and support development of products for weeks 3 and 4 to extend weather forecasting to 30 days
  • Improve hurricane track and intensity forecasts

The proposed NGGPS Coupled Model will include a single atmospheric dynamic core; a suite of atmospheric physics; and numerical ocean, wave, sea ice, land surface, aerosol and atmospheric composition models. This model will be integrated with data assimilation, ensemble design, post-processing, and creation of guidance products within the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) infrastructure.

Model Development Teams/Working Groups, comprised of scientists and modelers from NOAA and across US Government agencies and laboratories, cooperative institutions, universities, and the international numerical weather prediction community are working towards a common goal of developing a Unified Forecast System (UFS). The Working Groups are addressing various aspects of NGGPS and accelerating model component and system development, including integrating the new FV3 dynamical core into both global and regional models, accelerating the evolution of model physics, implementing the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), developing data assimilation improvements, and creating optimal verification methods and tools to evaluate the performance of the NGGPS model. Enhanced coordination among partners is accelerating all efforts and integrating community development into testing at EMC and transition to operations.

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