High-Resolution Climate Simulations of the Arabian Peninsula for Regional Sustainability Studies

The most devastating and costly impacts of climate change are experienced at regional and local levels. Increasing temperatures as well as changes in the frequency, intensity, duration, and seasonality of extreme events may adversely affect the economy and sustainable development efforts across the Arabian Peninsula. Simulating future changes in mean and extreme climate in the region is essential to support future city expansions and investment locations. Climate models, however, are unable to represent regional features and simulate changes in regional climate in detail. To help determine future changes in regional climate and support regional sustainability efforts, we perform convection permitting simulations and dynamically downscale both Community Earth System Model projections under a high impact emission scenario and historical ERA-Interim data using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to 4 km horizontal resolution. We compare historical results with station and remotely sensed observations. We present results focusing preliminarily on historical climate and future changes in the mean climate and extreme events.