32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Program Chairs: Walter A. Robinson , North Carolina State Univ. ; Robert Korty , Texas A&M Univ.

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 6 January 2019

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Plenary Session
Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times
Location: North Ballroom 120CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum and Annual Meeting Welcome; the Seventh Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 16th Conference on Space Weather; the 17th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 22nd Atmospheric Science Librarians International Conference; the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Symposium on Education; the 35th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 23rd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Ninth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Seventh Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the Fifth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Phased Array Radar Symposium; the Special Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation; the Ninth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Ninth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the 10th Conference on Environment and Health; the 18th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; the Richard Anthes Symposium; the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; the Second Conference on Earth Observing SmallSats; the Seventh AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Ninth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 11th Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 21st Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Fourth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the Events )
Moderator: Michael Henry, American Institute of Physics
Presider: Roger Wakimoto, Univ. of California, Los Angeles
Speakers: Dan Kahan, American Institute of Physics; David Goldston, MIT
4:00 PM
Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times

Monday, 7 January 2019

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 1A
Atmospheric Rivers—Part I
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Samson Hagos, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
8:30 AM
1A.1
Tracking Atmospheric Rivers Globally: Spatial Distributions and Life Cycle Evolutions
Bin Guan, Univ. of California, Pasadena, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser

8:45 AM
1A.2
Atmospheric Rivers Life Cycles: Climatology and Interannual Variability
Yang Zhou, Stony Brook University, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and H. Kim
9:00 AM
1A.3
9:15 AM
1A.4
Observed Water Vapor Budget in an Atmospheric River over the Northeast Pacific
Joel R. Norris, SIO/Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and F. M. Ralph, R. Demirdjian, and F. Cannon
9:30 AM
1A.5
What Makes an Atmospheric River Dusty?
Kara Voss, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and A. Evan, L. Campbell, K. A. Prather, and F. M. Ralph
9:45 AM
1A.6
The Relationship between Extratropical Cyclone Strength and Atmospheric River Intensity and Position
Zhenhai Zhang, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and F. M. Ralph and M. Zheng
Recording files available
Session 1B
Climate Sensitivity
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
CoChair: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.
8:30 AM
1B.1
Potency of Greenhouse Molecules
William A. van Wijngaarden, York Univ., Toronto, Canada; and W. Happer
8:45 AM
1B.2
Investigating the Climate Sensitivity Differences between CESM1 and CESM2
Cecile Hannay, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Bacmeister, R. B. Neale, A. Gettelman, and M. Zhang
9:00 AM
1B.3
Sensitivity of Regional Climate Models to GCM Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Linda O. Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Bukovsky and T. Rendfrey
9:15 AM
1B.4
9:30 AM
1B.5
A New Approach to Air Temperature Analysis
Ana Žaknić-Ćatović, Univ. of Toronto, Scarborough, Toronto, Canada; and W. A. Gough

Handout (1.7 MB)

9:45 AM
1B.6
Diurnal Temperature Variability: An Observations–Climate Model Intercomparison
Jamin K. Rader, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. B. Karnauskas
Recording files available
Session 1C
Tropical Climate Variability and Change—Part I
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
CoChair: Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ.
8:30 AM
1C.1
Recent Tropical Expansion: Natural Variability or Forced Response?
Kevin M. Grise, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and S. M. Davis, I. R. Simpson, D. W. Waugh, Q. Fu, R. J. Allen, K. H. Rosenlof, C. C. Ummenhofer, K. B. Karnauskas, A. C. Maycock, X. W. Quan, T. Birner, and P. W. Staten
8:45 AM
1C.2
9:00 AM
1C.3
Response of Hadley Circulation to Warming and Sensitivity to Physical Parameters
Kathleen A. Schiro, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and H. Su, Y. Wang, B. Langenbrunner, J. Jiang, and J. D. Neelin
9:15 AM
1C.4
Changes in the Global Divergent Overturning Circulation, Including the Hadley, Walker, and Monsoon Circulations
Gilbert P. Compo, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado Boulder and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

9:30 AM
1C.5
Energy Budget Theory for Interannual Shifts of the South Pacific Convergence Zone
William Boos, Univ. of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and B. Lintner and R. Korty
9:45 AM
1C.6
Barrier Layers in E3SMv1 and Their Relationship with Atmosphere Model Biases
J. E. Jack Reeves Eyre, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng and M. Brunke

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Monday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 2A
Atmospheric Rivers—Part II
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Walter A. Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.; Bin Guan, JPL
10:30 AM
2A.1
The Gauging and Modeling of Rivers in the Sky
David A. Lavers, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and M. J. Rodwell, D. S. Richardson, F. M. Ralph, J. D. Doyle, C. A. Reynolds, V. Tallapragada, and F. Pappenberger
11:30 AM
2A.5
The Association between Atmospheric Rivers and Extreme Precipitation over the Eastern United States
Emily A. Slinskey, Portland State Univ., Portland, OR; and P. Loikith, D. E. Waliser, and B. Guan
11:45 AM
2A.6
Atmospheric Rivers and Insured Flood Losses in the Western United States
Thomas W. Corringham, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and A. Gershunov, D. R. Cayan, and F. M. Ralph
Recording files available
Session 2B
Polar Climate Variability and Change—Part I
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Zhenxia Long, Bedford Institute of Oceanography
10:30 AM
2B.1
Sudden Recent Antarctic Sea Ice Retreat, Connections to the Tropics, and Upper Ocean Regime Change around Antarctica
Gerald Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Arblaster, C. Chung, M. M. Holland, A. DuVivier, L. Thompson, D. Yang, and C. M. Bitz
10:45 AM
2B.2
Arctic Amplification Is Caused by Sea-Ice Loss under Increasing CO2
Aiguo Dai, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Luo, M. Song, and J. Liu
11:00 AM
2B.3
The Impacts of Springtime Cloud and Radiation Properties on Arctic Sea Ice Changes in CESM
Yiyi Huang, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and D. A. Bailey, M. M. Holland, X. Dong, A. K. DuVivier, J. Kay, L. Landrum, and B. Xi
11:15 AM
2B.4
11:45 AM
2B.6
Rapidly Warming Arctic Sea Ice—Implication for the Arctic Amplification
B. J. Sohn, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. M. Lee

Recording files available
Session 2C
Tropical Climate Variability and Change—Part II
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Kerry H. Cook, The Univ. of Texas at Austin; William Boos, Univ. of California, Berkeley
10:30 AM
2C.1
Delayed Retreat of the Monsoon over the Indochina Peninsula Linked to Surface Warming Trends
Yang Liu, Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and K. H. Cook and E. K. Vizy
10:45 AM
2C.2
Origins of East Asian Summer Monsoon Seasonality
John C. H. Chiang, Univ. of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and C. H. Wu, W. Kong, and D. S. Battisti

11:00 AM
2C.3
The Influence of CMIP5 Tropical SST Biases on Simulations of Regional Climate
Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, Orono, ME; and R. Seager and N. Vigaud
11:15 AM
2C.4
Seasonal Climatology and Dynamical Mechanisms of Rainfall in the Caribbean
Carlos J. Martinez, LDEO/Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and L. Goddard, Y. Kushnir, and M. Ting
11:45 AM
2C.6
Using High-Resolution Global Simulations to Study the Effects of Climate Change on the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones
Ana P. Torres-Vazquez, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. C. Michaelis and G. M. Lackmann

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 1
Role of the Stratosphere in Climate Variability, Change, and Prediction—Part I
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere )
Cochairs: Isla R. Simpson, NCAR; Andrea L. Lang, University at Albany, SUNY
2:15 PM
TJ1.2
The Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Final Warmings and Their Surface Impacts
Amy Butler, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Sjoberg, A. Charlton-Perez, and D. I. V. Domeisen
2:30 PM
TJ1.3
2:45 PM
TJ1.4
Attribution of NAO Predictability beyond Two Weeks
Lantao Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and J. Perlwitz, J. H. Richter, and M. Hoerling
3:00 PM
TJ1.5
3:15 PM
TJ1.6
Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Surface Temperatures Using Stratospheric Ozone Information
Kane A. Stone, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and S. Solomon, D. E. Kinnison, C. F. Baggett, and E. A. Barnes
3:30 PM
TJ1.7
Role of Tropical Lower Stratospheric Cooling on Recent Tropical Tropospheric Change
Kunihiko Kodera, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and N. Eguchi, R. Ueyama, Y. Kuroda, B. Funatsu, C. Kobayashi, and C. Claud
Recording files available
Session 3A
Clouds and Climate
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: James F. Booth, City Univ. of New York; Catherine M. Naud, Columbia Univ.
2:00 PM
3A.1
Observed and Modeled Cloud Responses to Interannual Climate Variability
Andrew Geiss, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. T. Marchand
2:15 PM
3A.2
Boundary Layer Clouds in the Midlatitudes: Environmental Controls in Post-Cold Frontal Regions
Catherine Naud, Columbia Univ./NASA GISS, New York, NY; and J. F. Booth and F. Lamraoui
2:30 PM
3A.3
Examining the Fidelity of Cloud Optical Properties and Overlap Statistics through Comparisons of Radiative Transfer and Cloud Resolving Models against AIRS Observations
Tianhao Le, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and C. Li, V. Natraj, X. Zhang, A. J. Braverman, and Y. Yung
2:45 PM
3A.4
Exploring Radiative Influence on Extratropical Cyclone Development and Sensitivity
Gregory Tierney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and D. J. Posselt and J. F. Booth
3:15 PM
3A.6
Examining Precipitation and Radiative Impacts of Convection in the Tropical Atlantic
Juliet A. Pilewskie, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and T. L'Ecuyer
3:30 PM
3A.7
Nonlinearity in the Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Forcing
Zhaoyi Shen, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and Y. Ming
3:45 PM
3A.8
Band-by-Band Contributions to the Longwave Cloud Radiative Feedbacks
Xianglei Huang, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and X. Chen and Q. Yue
Recording files available
Session 3B
Polar Climate Variability and Change—Part II
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Sergio A. Sejas, NASA Langley Research Center
2:00 PM
3B.1
Arctic Cloud and Atmospheric Regime Interactions: An Annual Cycle Perspective
Patrick Taylor, NASA LRC, Hampton, VA; and R. C. Boeke

2:15 PM
3B.2
Quantifying the Arctic Local Radiative Feedbacks Based on Observed Short-Term Climate Variations
Rudong Zhang, PNNL, Richland, WA; and H. Wang, Q. Fu, A. G. Pendergrass, and P. J. Rasch

2:30 PM
3B.3
Interannual Oscillations of Arctic Summertime TOA Fluxes
Dong L. Wu, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. N. Lee

2:45 PM
3B.4
3:00 PM
3B.5
On the Role of Horizontal Temperature Advection for the Interdecadal Arctic Warming Trend
Joseph P. Clark, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. B. Feldstein and S. Lee
3:15 PM
3B.6
High-Resolution Future Climate Change Simulation in Alaska Using a Pseudo–Global Warming Scenario
Andrew Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. J. Monaghan, M. Clark, K. Ikeda, L. Xue, and J. R. Arnold
3:30 PM
3B.7
Exploring Rapid Climate Change in the Arctic with the Arctic System Reanalysis
Aaron B. Wilson, The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and D. H. Bromwich and L. S. Bai
3:45 PM
3B.8
Developing Capabilities for Analysis in the Arctic within the NOAA/NWS Local Climate Analysis Tool
Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. E. Churma, M. Coulman, F. Horsfall, and J. C. Meyers

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Formal Poster Viewing Reception
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 1
Climate Variability and Change Posters—Part I
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ.; Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.
61
An Examination of North Pacific Jet Regimes Conducive to Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers along the West Coast of North America
Eli Turasky, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. C. Winters, D. Keyser, and L. Bosart

62
Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation Extremes under a Changing Climate
Jiali Wang, ANL, Lemont, IL; and Z. Zobel and R. Kotamarthi

64
Constraining Future Projections of Atmospheric Rivers Using a Multiobjective Model Evaluation Framework
Elias Massoud, NASA JPL, Pasadena, CA; and B. Guan, V. Espinoza, and D. E. Waliser

66
Quasigeostrophic Forcing during Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers over Northern and Southern California
Chad W. Hecht, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and F. Cannon, J. M. Cordeira, and F. M. Ralph

67
Atmospheric River Research in Alaska
Aaron Jacobs, NOAA/NWS, Juneau, AK; and E. Holloway and A. Dixon

68
Extreme Surface Winds during Atmospheric Rivers: The Modulating Role of Near-Surface Stability
Terence Pagano, California State Univ., Los Angeles, CA; and D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, and H. Ye

69
Uncertainty Estimates of Atmospheric River-Induced Extreme Precipitation from Numerical Precision in a Regional Weather Model
Rachel Weihs, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and C. Papadopoulos and F. M. Ralph

70
Experimental Subseasonal Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers over the Western United States during Winter 2017–18 and 2018–19
Michael DeFlorio, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, F. M. Ralph, J. Jones, M. L. Anderson, A. Goodman, B. Guan, A. Subramanian, Z. Zhang, A. Gershunov, and F. Vitart

71
Atmospheric Rivers in an Ever-Changing Climate
Ash E. Bray, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

72
The Structure and Evolution of Persistent West Coast Cool Season Ridge Regimes
Tyler Leicht, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Bosart

73
Understanding Decadal Variability of Atmospheric Rivers
James Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Ge

74
Intensive Climate Warming and Drought Trend during 1981–2018
Felix Kogan, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD

75
Modeled Response of Midlatitude Cyclones to Projected Changes in North American Snow Cover
Ryan Clare, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and A. R. Desai, M. Notaro, J. Martin, and S. J. Vavrus

76
Climate Change and Global Warming Using Empirical Model
Remata S. Reddy, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and F. Tuluri, M. Fadavi, and W. L. Walters

78
Understanding the Dynamical Controlling Factors on Southern Ocean Clouds
Kevin M. Grise, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and M. K. Kelleher

79
80
Characteristics of Rain and Cloud Liquid Water Path in Stratiform Precipitation Systems during MC3E
Jingjing Tian, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Dong, B. Xi, and C. R. Williams

81
Effect of Wind Shear in Marine Stratocumulus Drizzle Production
Peng Wu, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and W. W. Grabowski, X. Dong, B. Xi, and L. Xue

82
Halo Identification Algorithm for Sky Images Produced in TSI Series
Sylke Boyd, Univ. of Minnesota, Morris, MN; and S. Sorenson, M. King, S. Richard, and M. Greenslit
Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

84
Time Series Evaluation of the Current Collection of NASA MODIS Science Team Cloud Products
Steven Platnick, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. Meyer, N. Amarasinghe, G. Wind, S. A. Ackerman, R. E. Holz, and R. Frey

85
Impact of Convective Detrainment on Cloud Optical Properties
Laura Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. C. Barth

86
Angular Resolved Light Scattering as a Sensitive Tool to Infer Ice Crystal Complexity
Martin Schnaiter, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and E. Hesse and E. Järvinen

Handout (2.6 MB)

87
Recent Arctic Cyclone Climatology from the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)
Elizabeth N. Cassano, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Cassano and E. Valkonen

88
Quantifying the Impact of Atmospheric Blocking on the Mean State of the North Atlantic Sector of the Arctic
Gina R. Henderson, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and B. S. Barrett, E. McDonnell, and M. Henry

89
A Spring Predictability Barrier for Arctic Sea Ice
David B. Bonan, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Bushuk and M. Winton

91
Antarctic Iceberg Characterization and Variability from 60+ Years of Ship-Based Observations in the Southern Ocean
Yuri A. Romanov, P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; and N. A. Romanova and P. Romanov

93
Enhanced 30-Year Global Snow and Ice Dataset and Climatology
Peter Romanov, City Univ. of New York, New York, NY

94
Springtime North Pacific Oscillation and Summer Sea Ice in the Beaufort Sea
Minghong Zhang, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and W. Perrie and Z. Long

95
Determining Ocean Tide Influences on Antarctic Ice Shelf Circulation Using GFDL MOM6
Casey Brayton, Univ. of South Carolina–Columbia, Irmo, SC; and R. Hallberg

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Exhibits Opening and Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Tuesday, 8 January 2019

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Advances in Understanding Land–Atmosphere Interactions: Part I
Location: North 127ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; and the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA; Yunyan Zhang, LLNL; Dan Li, Boston Univ.
8:45 AM
J1.2
The Influence of Irrigated Soil Moisture on Modeled Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Simulated Flows in the San Joaquin Valley, California
G. Aaron Alexander, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and H. A. Holmes, J. Trousdell, I. Faloona, and H. J. Oldroyd
9:00 AM
J1.3
Quantifying the Impact of Land Surface Initialization on Southern Great Plains Low-Level Jet Forecast Skill
Geng Xia, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson, J. M. Freedman, and L. Bosart
9:30 AM
J1.5
Assimilation of SMAP Brightness Temperatures: An Investigation into the Source of Near-Surface Temperature Forecast Errors in ECCC's Short-Range NWP Forecasts
Marco L. Carrera, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Canada; and B. Bilodeau, C. R. Hain, W. Crow, and S. Bélair

9:45 AM
J1.6
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 4
Stratospheric Ozone, Chemistry, and Climate—Part I
Location: West 212A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 21st Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry )
Cochairs: John S. Daniel, NOAA; Amy Butler, CIRES
8:30 AM
TJ4.1A
Global Stratospheric Ozone: Past, Present, and Future (Invited Presentation)
Jessica L. Neu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and P. Braesicke and W. S. Chapter 3 Team
9:00 AM
TJ4.2
Trends in Atmospheric Abundance and Inferred Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances (Invited Presentation)
Brad D. Hall, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and M. Rigby, A. Engel, R. Hossaini, M. Vollmer, R. P. Fernandez, and E. J. Hintsa
9:15 AM
TJ4.3A
9:45 AM
TJ4.4A
Ozone Change and Its Influence on Climate (Invited Presentation)
A. Yu. Karpechko, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and A. C. Maycock, M. Abalos, J. Arblaster, C. I. Garfinkel, H. Akiyoshi, K. H. Rosenlof, and M. Sigmond
Recording files available
Session 4A
Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part I
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.
8:30 AM
4A.1
Lower-Latitude Linkages to Two Intense Arctic Cyclones in Early June 2018
Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. A. Biernat, D. Keyser, and S. M. Cavallo
8:45 AM
4A.2
A Predictability Study of a Polar Low Linked to a Tropopause Polar Vortex
Kevin A. Biernat, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser, L. F. Bosart, and S. M. Cavallo
9:00 AM
4A.3
The Forcing of the Preferred Positions of the Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet: Importance of Orography and SSTs
Rachel H. White, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. Sheshadri and C. Hilgenbrink

9:15 AM
4A.4
Quantifying Storm-Track Variability and Impacts Using Accumulated Cyclone Track Activity
Edmund K. M. Chang, Stony Brook Univ., SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and A. M. W. Yau

9:30 AM
4A.5
Storm Track Shifts Induced by Regional Stationary Wave Interference
Mingyu Park, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. Lee
9:45 AM
4A.6
Blocking Identification Based on the Kinematic Vorticity Number and Its Link to the Point Vortex Model
Lisa Schielicke, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany; and M. Hirt, A. Müller, P. Nevir, and J. Dahl
Recording files available
Session 4B
Decadal–Multidecadal Climate Variability and Predictability—Part I
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Antonietta Capotondi, Univ. of Colorado Boulder
Cochairs: Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ.; Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.
9:00 AM
4B.3
9:15 AM
4B.4
Reconstruction and Attribution of Multidecadal Temperature Variability over the Common Era
R. A. Neukom, Univ. of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; and L. A. Barboza, J. Emile-Geay, M. P. Erb, J. Franke, L. Lücke, A. Schurer, F. Shi, V. Valler, S. Brönnimann, M. N. Evans, G. J. Hakim, W. He, B. J. Henley, D. S. Kaufman, F. C. Ljungqvist, N. P. McKay, S. J. Phipps, K. Rehfeld, L. von Gunten, J. Werner, and F. Zhu
9:45 AM
4B.6
An Observational Estimate of the Direct Atmospheric Response to the Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Claude Frankignoul, Sorbonne Université, UPMC, Paris, France; and A. Simon and G. Gastineau

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 2
Advances in Understanding Land–Atmosphere Interactions: Part II
Location: North 127ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; and the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA; Yunyan Zhang, LLNL; Dan Li, Boston Univ.
10:30 AM
J2.1
Land-Atmosphere Coupling in an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations
Rachel McCrary, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. W. Arritt and M. S. Bukovsky
10:45 AM
J2.2
Assessment of the Sensitivity to the Thermal Roughness Length in Noah and Noah-MP Land Surface Model Using WRF in an Arid Region
Michael Weston, Khalifa Univ., Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and M. Temimi and V. K. Valappil

11:00 AM
J2.3
11:15 AM
J2.4
Impact of Land-Atmosphere Interactions on Mesoscale Arctic Forecasts
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, S. Wang, and J. Nachamkin
11:30 AM
J2.5
11:45 AM
J2.6
Terrestrial Moisture Recycling Estimates Derived from an Idealized Model Framework
Benjamin Lintner, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and K. Findell, P. Keys, R. van der Ent, A. Berg, and J. P. Krasting
Recording files available
Session 5A
Decadal–Multidecadal Climate Variability and Predictability—Part II
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Joseph Barsugli, CIRES
10:45 AM
5A.2
Decadal Modulation of ENSO: Is it Real?
Antonietta Capotondi, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh
11:00 AM
5A.3
Tropical SSTs: The Boon and Bane of Climate Predictability around the Globe
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and S. I. Shin, G. P. Compo, and C. McColl

11:30 AM
5A.5
Tropical Decadal Variability and the Rate of Arctic Sea Ice Retreat
Gerald Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Arblaster, C. Chung, M. M. Holland, and C. Bitz
11:45 AM
5A.6
Recording files available
Session 5B
Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part II
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.
10:45 AM
5B.2
Trends in the Northern Midlatitude Rossby Wave in a Future Climate
Heather S. Sussman, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. Raghavendra, P. E. Roundy, and A. Dai
11:00 AM
5B.3
11:15 AM
5B.4
Understanding the Zonal Circulation Response to Climate Forcing Using Feedback Analysis
Gang Chen, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and C. Liu
11:30 AM
5B.5
Evaluating the Characteristics of Persistent Anomalies in a Warmer, Moister World
Gregory Tierney, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann and W. A. Robinson
11:45 AM
5B.6
A Modified Persistent Anomaly Index Applied to High-Resolution Model Simulations of Present and Future Climates
Rebecca Lee Miller, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. Michaelis, G. Lackmann, and W. A. Robinson
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 6
Stratospheric Ozone, Chemistry, and Climate—Part II
Location: West 212A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; and the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Paul A. Newman, NASA GSFC; Susan E. Strahan, NASA GSFC
10:30 AM
TJ6.1
Stratospheric Ozone–Induced Cloud Radiative Effects on Antarctic Sea Ice
Yongyun Hu, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and Y. Xia, J. Liu, and Y. Huang
10:45 AM
TJ6.2
Influence of Artic Stratospheric Ozone on Surface Climate in CCMI models
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and O. Harrari
11:00 AM
TJ6.3
The Transient Impact of Ozone Depletion on the Southern Hemisphere Ocean: Sea Surface Temperature, Heat Content, and Carbon
William J. M. Seviour, The Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and D. G. Ferreira, A. Gnanadesikan, Y. Kostov, J. Marshall, and D. W. Waugh
11:15 AM
TJ6.4
11:30 AM
TJ6.5A
Retrievals of Ozone Profiles over Greenland and Their Relationship to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Shima Bahramvash Shams, Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA; and V. Walden, A. H. Butler, J. W. Hannigan, D. D. Turner, and M. Palm

11:45 AM
TJ6.6
Stratospheric Ozone Recovery in Light of the Slowdown in the Decline of CFC-11
Eric A. Ray, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and S. A. Montzka, R. W. Portmann, P. Yu, J. S. Daniel, and G. S. Dutton

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Lecture 1
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Events )
1:30 PM
L1.1
Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Advances in Understanding Land–Atmosphere Interactions III
Location: North 127ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; and the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA; Yunyan Zhang, LLNL; Dan Li, Boston Univ.
1:30 PM
J3.1A
Challenges in Representing Hydroclimatic Effects of Agriculture Management in Earth-System Models
Fei Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and X. Xu, M. Barlage, D. J. Gochis, X. Liu, D. Niyogi, A. Mahalov, and L. Di
1:45 PM
J3.2
Complex Biophysical Climate Effects of Changing Temperate Forests
Gensuo Jia, CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; and W. Ma

2:00 PM
J3.3
Isolating the Influence of Vegetation Variability of La Plata River Basin on the Climate of South America
Divyansh Chug, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign, Urbana, IL; and F. Dominguez
Recording files available
Session 6
Decadal–Multidecadal Climate Variability and Predictability—Part III
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Isla R. Simpson, NCAR
1:45 PM
6.2A
Earth's Climate Variability over 6 Years from CrIS Brightness Temperature, OMPS Ozone, and CarbonTracker CO2
Ester Nikolla, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and R. O. Knuteson, M. Feltz, H. E. Revercomb, D. C. Tobin, and D. H. DeSlover
2:15 PM
6.4
How Well Do Observations Constrain the Sensitivity of the Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow to Temperature and Precipitation Trends?
Joseph Barsugli, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and M. Hoerling, J. K. Eischeid, K. Wolter, and B. Livneh

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 10
Big Data, Big Computing, Bigger Science: Earth Data for AI
Location: North 124B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Fifth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Timothy S. Sliwinski, Texas Tech University; Surya Karthik Mukkavilli, University of New South Wales/CSIRO Australia/World Energy Meteorology Council UK/GroundObs Ltd.; Auroop Ganguly, Northeastern University; Scott Collis, Argonne National Laboratory; Gerald J. Creager, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL; Philippe Tissot, Texas A&M University−Corpus Christi
1:30 PM
TJ10.1
AI for Earth (Core Science Keynote)
Lucas Joppa, Microsoft, Redmond, WA
2:00 PM
TJ10.2
The Need for HPC for Deep Learning with Real-Time Satellite Observations
Jebb Q. Stewart, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and C. Bonfanti, I. Jankov, L. Trailovic, and M. W. Govett
2:15 PM
TJ10.3
Machine Learning Applications of the Earth Data Analytic Services (EDAS) Framework
Thomas P. Maxwell, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and D. Duffy, G. L. Potter, and L. Carriere

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Advances in Understanding Land–Atmosphere Interactions IV
Location: North 127ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; and the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA; Yunyan Zhang, LLNL; Dan Li, Boston Univ.
3:00 PM
J4.1
Linking Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Interactions to Transitions from Shallow to Deep Convective Cloud over the Southern Great Plains (Invited Presentation)
Larry K. Berg, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. D. Fast, W. I. Gustafson Jr., H. Xiao, S. L. Tai, Z. Feng, Y. Qian, and M. Huang

3:15 PM
J4.2
3:30 PM
J4.3A
Identifying a Soil Moisture-Rainfall Feedback in the 2016 New York Summer Drought
Marc J Alessi, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano and T. Ault
Recording files available
Session 7A
Tropical Climate Variability and Change—Part III
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ.
3:00 PM
7A.1
3:15 PM
7A.2
Global and Tropical Precipitation—Trends and Intensity Changes over the Satellite Era
Robert Adler, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and G. Gu, J. J. Wang, and G. J. Huffman
3:30 PM
7A.3
The Potential to Enhance Tropical Atlantic Sector Rainfall Projections by Alleviating the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Bias
Mojib Latif, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany; and W. Park and J. Harlaß
Recording files available
Session 7B
Variability and Change in Jets and Storm Tracks—Part III
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.
3:00 PM
7B.1
Linkages between Tropopause Polar Vortices and the Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012
Daniel Keyser, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. A. Biernat, L. F. Bosart, and S. M. Cavallo
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 13
Role of the Stratosphere in Climate Variability, Change, and Prediction—Part II
Location: West 212A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; and the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: John R. Albers, Univ. of Colorado Boulder; Kane A. Stone, MIT
3:00 PM
TJ13.1A
Impact of Interactive Chemistry of Stratospheric Ozone on Surface Climate in Paleoclimate Simulations and Future Global Warming Projections
Shigeo Yoden, Kyoto Univ., Kyoto, Japan; and S. Noda, K. Kodera, Y. Adachi, M. Deushi, A. Kitoh, R. Mizuta, S. Murakami, and K. Yoshida
3:15 PM
TJ13.2A
Northern Hemisphere continental warming following the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption: forced response or just natural variability?
Lorenzo Polvani, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. Banerjee and A. Schmidt

Paper TJ13.2 has been moved to Poster 175A.

3:30 PM
TJ13.3

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 2
Climate Variability and Change Posters—Part II
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ.; Walter A. Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.
459
An Updated Analysis of Historical Precipitation Patterns over the Tropical Pacific Ocean
Joshua Jon Wimhurst, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Greene

460
Temperature Variability over South America's Continental and Adjacent Seas: 1979–2017
Rosane Chaves, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
Manuscript (2.7 MB)

461
Variability of the Tropical Winter Climate
Diana Laura Espinosa Carballo, Institute of Meteorology of Cuba, Havana, Cuba

462
Size and Frequency of Tropical Deep Convective Clouds Observed from the PATMOS-x AVHRR Record
Charles H. White, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and A. Heidinger

463
Future Changes to Species' Range along the South American Coast Based on Statistically Downscaled SST Projections
Dakota Crane, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and A. Montenegro, B. Vianna, and T. Costa

465
The Effect of ENSO and Other Sources of Large-Scale Variability on Observed Bright Bands over Manus, Papua New Guinea
Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and P. E. Johnston

Handout (706.7 kB)

466
Evaluation of Long-Term, Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in a Climatic Transition Zone in Equatorial Africa
Jeremy Diem, Georgia State Univ., Atlanta, GA; and B. Konecky, J. Salerno, and J. Hartter

468
Temperature Trends over South America: 1979–2017
Rosane Rodrigues Chaves, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
Manuscript (87.6 kB)

470
The Role of the Subtropical Jet in Dry Season Caribbean Rainstorms
Marshall Pfahler, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Bosart

471
Testing Storm-Track Sensitivity to Resolution and Climate Change Using High-Resolution Global Simulations
Katie Boaggio, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and W. A. Robinson, R. Schiemann, A. C. Michaelis, and G. M. Lackmann

472
The Role of Upper-Level Coupling to the Great Plain’s Low-Level Jet Stream and Precipitation
D. Alex Burrows, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson, M. A. Campbell, L. F. Bosart, and G. Xia

473
Change in the Relationship between Winter Monsoon and Jet Stream in East Asia across the 1998–99 Regime Shift
Se-Yong Song, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh

474
Climate Prediction Analysis Using an Ensemble of RegCM Experiments for Central-Eastern Europe
Judit Bartholy, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, I. Pieczka, and T. Kalmar

479
Meteorological Factors Related to Summertime Temperature Extremes in Regional Climate Models over Europe
Ondrej Lhotka, Institute of Atmospheric Physics & Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague/Brno, Czech Republic; and J. Kysely

480
Extreme Heat Events in Southern California between 2016 and 2018
Brandt D. Maxwell, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA

482
Changes in Precipitation Extremes with Climate Warming
Rachel Maya Robinson, North Carolina State Univ., Cary, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

483
Impact of Solar Activity on Correlation between Snow over the Tibetan Plateau and Summer Precipitation in China
Yan Song, China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing, China

484
Dynamic Urban Residents’ Exposure to Temperature Extremes in U.S. Cities
Leiqiu Hu, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and J. Yang

486
How Does Climate Change Increase the Severity of a Flood-Producing Rain Event in the U.S. Southeast?
James Michael Madden, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and C. Jung, W. A. Robinson, and G. M. Lackmann

488
Impacts of WRF Physical Parameterizations on Simulations of 2012 Summer Heat Wave Event in Missouri
Lili Zhu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and F. Sun, T. Li, and K. Reed

489
Extreme Precipitation Events Associated with Tibetan Plateau Vortex
Zhiqiang Lin, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and W. Guo

490
Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in High Mountain Asia as Inferred from High-Resolution Regional Climate Modeling
Collin Riley, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. Rupper, W. J. Steenburgh, C. Strong, and A. Kochanski

494
Contradictions to IPCC's Climate Change Theory
Edwin X Berry, Climate Physics, LLC, Bigfork, MT
Manuscript (599.4 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)


Joint Poster Session
Advances in Understanding Land–Atmosphere Interactions (Posters)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; and the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Joseph A. Santanello, NASA GSFC; Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA; Yunyan Zhang, LLNL; Dan Li, Boston Univ.
422
A Large Eddy Simulation Study on the Transition of the Convective to Stable Boundary Layers
Song-Lak Kang, Gangneung-Wonju National Univ., Gangneung, Korea, Republic of (South)

423
The Hydroclimate Impacts of Human-Induced Soil Degradation
Sonali McDermid, New York Univ., New York, NY; and M. Puma, T. Hengl, B. Cook, and J. Sanderman

427
A Study on the Characteristics of the Coherent Structure of Turbulence in a Semi-Arid Area
Jianhua Zhao Sr., Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou, China

428
How Climate Change Is Intensifying U.S. Heatwaves during Droughts in CESM1
Linyin Cheng, Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR; and M. Hoerling, Z. Liu, and J. Eischeid

429
Exploring Relationships between the Land Surface and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over Southeastern South America
Carolina A. Bieri, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and D. Chug and F. Dominguez

Poster 430 will also be presented as 8B.2A

431
Observed Changes in West Virginia’s Land Use, Forest Species Composition, and Climate
Evan J. Kutta, West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, WV; and J. A. Hubbart

Handout (598.6 kB)

433
Impact of Coincidental Precipitation on the Accuracy of SMAP Soil Moisture Retrievals
Andreas Colliander, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and A. Berg, T. Jackson, M. H. Cosh, T. Caldwell, H. McNairn, J. Martinez-Fernandez, J. Walker, and S. H. Yueh

Wednesday, 9 January 2019

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales—Part I
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Seventh Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chair: Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma
8:30 AM
J5.1
8:45 AM
J5.2
9:00 AM
J5.3
MJO Predictive Skill and Impacts in the Navy Earth System Model
Matthew Adam Janiga, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. J. Schreck III, J. Ridout, M. Flatau, N. Barton, W. A. Komaromi, and C. A. Reynolds
9:15 AM
J5.4
Variability in CFSv2 Hindcast Skill for the MJO and Equatorial Waves
Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC; and M. A. Janiga and A. R. Aiyyer
9:45 AM
J5.6
Recording files available
Session 8
Extreme Climate Events in the Middle Latitudes—Part I
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Paul Loikith, Portland State Univ.
8:45 AM
8.2
Evaluating Indices of Blocking Anticyclones in Terms of Their Relations with Surface Hot Extremes
Pak-Wah Chan, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and P. Hassanzadeh and Z. Kuang

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 9A
Extreme Climate Events in the Middle Latitudes—Part II
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Arielle J. Catalano, Portland State Univ.
10:30 AM
9A.1
Historical Perspective on Hurricane Harvey Rainfall
Kenneth E. Kunkel, CICS-NC, Asheville, NC; and R. L. Smith
10:45 AM
9A.2
Understanding CWRF Ability to Simulate U.S. Extreme Precipitation Characteristics
Xin-Zhong Liang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and C. Sun
11:00 AM
9A.3
North America's Winter Circulation has Changed, but for How Long?
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and J. H. Yoon and L. Wang
11:30 AM
9A.5
Identifying Northern Great Plains Blizzards in the Past, Present, and Future
Aaron D. Kennedy, Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and A. Trellinger
11:45 AM
9A.6
Role of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures in U.S. Great Plains Pluvial Years
Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Basara, J. C. Furtado, E. R. Martin, and X. Xiao
Recording files available
Session 9B
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales—Part II
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Isla R. Simpson, NCAR
10:30 AM
9B.1
Quantifying the Dependence of the Global Response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, E. D. Maloney, and S. C. van den Heever
11:00 AM
9B.3
What Drives the North Atlantic Oscillation's Surface Air Temperature Anomaly Pattern?
Joseph P. Clark, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. B. Feldstein
11:30 AM
9B.5
Understanding Positive Feedback between PNA and Synoptic Eddies by Eddy Structure Decomposition Method
Hong-Li Ren, Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and F. Zhou
11:45 AM
9B.6

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Lunch Break (Wed)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 6
Artificial Intelligence and Climate: Impact and Opportunities
Location: North 124B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Carlos F. Gaitan, ClimateAI; Philippe Tissot, Texas A&M University−Corpus Christi
1:30 PM
J6.1
Deep Learning Recognizes Climate and Weather Patterns and Emulates Complex Processes Critical to the Modeling of Earth's Climate
Karthik Kashinath, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and M. Prabhat, M. Mudigonda, A. Mahesh, S. Kim, J. Wu, A. Albert, A. Rupe, A. Fernandez, T. A. O'Brien, M. F. Wehner, and W. D. Collins
1:45 PM
J6.2
2:00 PM
J6.3
Climate Science, Deep Learning, and Pattern Discovery: The Madden−Julian Oscillation as a Test Case
Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. Kashinath, M. Prabhat, and D. Yang
2:15 PM
J6.4
Early Predictions of Extreme Heat Events in the Eastern United States Using Machine Learning
Negin Sobhani, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Del Vento and A. Fanfarillo

Recording files available
Session 10A
Extreme Climate Events in the Middle Latitudes—Part III
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Walter Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.
1:45 PM
10A.2
Recording files available
Session 10B
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales—Part III
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California, Irvine; Isla R. Simpson, NCAR
1:30 PM
10B.1
Users Perspectives on S2S Forecast Products for Extreme Precipitation Events
Renee A. McPherson, South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Norman, OK; and P. Ćwik, H. Lazrus, E. Martin, E. Mullens, C. M. Kuster, and M. J. Wagner
1:45 PM
10B.2
Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Winter Blocking and Extreme Temperature Frequency
Douglas E. Miller, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang
2:00 PM
10B.3
Diagnosing North Pacific Blocking Using a Linear Inverse Model
Melissa L. Breeden, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and B. T. Hoover and M. Newman

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 11A
Extreme Climate Events in the Middle Latitudes—Part IV
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Xin-Zhong Liang, University of Maryland at College Park
3:00 PM
11A.1
3:15 PM
11A.2
Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Precipitation Extremes over Portland, Oregon, in Climate Models
Christina Aragon, Portland State Univ., Portland, OR; and P. Loikith and A. J. Catalano
3:30 PM
11A.3
Robustness of Projected Trends in Warm Season Precipitation Extremes over the Central United States
Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and M. S. Bukovsky, S. A. McGinnis, A. L. Caruthers, L. O. Mearns, and W. J. Gutowski

Recording files available
Session 11B
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales—Part IV
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California, Irvine; Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ.
3:15 PM
11B.2
Global Annual Precipitation Cycles and Variability
Erica Bower, National Weather Center Research Experience for Undergraduates, Norman, OK; and E. R. Martin
3:30 PM
11B.3
Bridging the Weather-to-Climate Prediction Gap: Progress by the NOAA S2S Prediction Task Force
Annarita Mariotti, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and E. A. Barnes, E. K. M. Chang, A. L. Lang, P. A. Dirmeyer, K. Pegion, and D. Barrie

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 3
Climate Variability and Change Posters—Part III
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ.; Walter A. Robinson, North Carolina State Univ.
889
Changes in Intense Rainfall Events and Drought across Africa in the 21st Century
Kerry H. Cook, The Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and F. Han and E. Vizy

890
Understanding the Diurnal Cycle of Summer Precipitation over Sub-Saharan West Africa
Edward Vizy, The Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

891
892
Subseasonal Predictions of the Ethiopian Belg Rains
Endalkachew Bekele, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Thiaw

893
Intraseasonal Variability and Predictability over West Equatorial Africa during the Rainy Season
Pierre-Honore Kamsu-Tamo, UCAR-NOAA/NWS/NCEP, CPC, College Park, MD; and W. M. Thiaw and S. Janicot

894
Analysis of Drought Conditions and Their Impacts on Maize Yield
Omolola Mayowa Adisa, Univ. of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa; and J. O. Botai, A. M. Adeola, A. Hassen, and C. Botai

895
Analysis of the Representation of the Vertical Structure of the Saharan Air Layer over Northern Africa and the Eastern Atlantic Using MERRA-2
Jainn J. Shi, NASA GSFC, Morgan State Univ./GESTAR, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Braun, S. D. Nicholls, and M. Cordero-Fuentes

896
The Effects of Surface Longwave Spectral Emissivity on Atmospheric Circulation and Convection over the Sahara and Sahel Regions
Yi-Hsuan Chen, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and X. Chen, X. Huang, and M. G. Flanner

898
Multiapproach Analysis of Urban Heat Island Effect in a Central-Eastern European Agglomeration
Rita Pongracz, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, H. Breuer, Z. Dezso, C. Dian, and J. Gondocs

899
The Role of Remote Forcing for the TEJ Variability over West Africa on Interannual to Multidecadal Time Scales
Alexander Lemburg, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and J. Bader

901
Using the Pseudo–Global Warming Method to Study the Interaction between Heat Waves and Urban Heat Islands in a Future Warmer Climate
Mukul Tewari, IBM Research, New York, NY; and J. Yang, H. Kusaka, F. Salamanca, C. D. Watson, and L. A. Treinish

902
A Multicohort Dynamic Population Model for Two-Way Coupling with Climate Models
Greta Katherine Easthom, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and S. Motesharrei

903
The Future of European Urban Heat Islands in a Changing Climate
Alaina Froh, Univ. of Maryland, Gaithersburg, MD

904
Using Global Climate Models to Project Monsoon and Future Extreme Weather Trends in the Pacific
Michael C. Kruk, Earth Resources Technology, Inc., Asheville, NC; and J. Marra, A. Shannon, R. Wegener, and A. Mackey

906
Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the Central American Wind Jets
Yordan Arango Jiménez, National Univ. of Colombia, Medellín, Colombia; and Y. Cardona and C. D. Hoyos

907
High-Resolution Global Simulations Using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for Use in Climate Change Studies
Allison C. Michaelis, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann and W. A. Robinson

908
909
Modeling the Climate and Land Cover Change Effects on Urban Water and Energy Dynamics in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area
Zhaocheng Wang, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and T. J. Bohn and E. R. Vivoni

Handout (6.0 MB)

910
The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

913
El Niño–Related Variations of Rainfall Characteristics over East Asia
Lishan Tseng, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and P. Y. Liu, J. M. Wang, and S. Y. Ho

910B
916
An Observational Study of Northern Hemisphere Submonthly Retrograde Waves Using Reanalysis
Girish Nigamanth Raghunathan, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and H. P. Huang

917
Intercomparison of Regional Climate Models for Summer Climate over the Philippines
Yoo-Bin Yhang, APEC Climate Center, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. M. Lim and W. Kim

918
Transitory Behaviors of June Rainfall Types over the Korean Peninsula
Hoyeon Shi, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and B. J. Sohn

919
Application of CFSv2 Hindcasts of Canadian Fire Weather Indices to Develop Outlooks for Fire Managers in Alaska
Akila Sampath, Geophysical Institute, Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK

920
Changes in North American Monsoon Precipitation in a Warmer Climate
Emily Fletcher, NSF, Lincoln, NE; and M. Natoli, B. Singh, and E. D. Maloney

921
Increasing Arabian Peninsula Summer Surface Air Temperature Response to Greenhouse Warming: The Role of Water Vapor Feedback
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy; and F. Kucharski

923
Assessing the Quality of Seasonal Ensemble Forecasts
Anna Y. Borovikov, SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert

924
Intra-annual Changes of the Circulation Variability Modes Dominating over the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics
Lucie Pokorna, Faculty of Science, Charles Univ., Prague, Czech Republic; and R. Huth

925
Cloud-System Resolving Model for Arabian Peninsula Winter Rainfall
Raju Attada, King Abdullah Univ. of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia; and H. P. Dasari, T. M. Luong, O. Knio, and I. Hoteit

926
QBWO of Asian Monsoon Rainfall in Late Summer and Autumn: Different Types of Structure and Propagation
Xin Yan, No. 135, Xingang Xi Road,, Guangzhou, China; and S. Yang, T. Wang, and S. Dong

928
The Relationship between Atmospheric Blocking and Precipitation Changes in Turkey between 1977 and 2016
Bahtiyar Efe, Istanbul Technical Univ., Istanbul, Turkey; and A. R. Lupo and A. Deniz

929A
Navigating Our Understanding of Future Greenland Ice Sheet Precipitation with CESM Simulations and CloudSat Observations
Michael A. Camron, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and J. Lenaerts, J. Kay, and T. L'Ecuyer


Joint Poster Session
Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Projection in the 21st Century—Beyond PDSI (Posters)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Cochairs: Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Pierre Gentine, Columbia Univ.; Michael Barlage, NCAR; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Univ. of California; Daniel Barrie, NOAA
845
Root-Zone Soil Moisture Estimation Using In-Situ Measurements and Remote Sensing Data
Ning Zhang, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and S. M. Quiring

849
Impact of Climate Model “Downscaling” on Projected Water Resources in Arid Basins, Two Case Studies from Arizona
Eylon Shamir, Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA; and E. Halper, T. Modrick, K. P. Georgakakos, H. I. Chang, T. Lahmers, and C. L. Castro

850
Using Remotely Sensed Precipitation Information and Vegetation Observations for Early Drought Detection and Near-Real Time Monitoring on a Global Scale
Olivier P. Prat, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites/North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC; and R. D. Leeper, J. L. Matthews, B. R. Nelson, J. Adams, and S. Ansari

855
The 1983-2016 Climate Hazards Infrared, MERRA High Resolution Tmax with Stations (CHIRTSmax) Climate Data Record
Pete Peterson, Climate Hazards Group, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA; and C. C. Funk, S. Peterson, S. Shukla, F. Davenport, J. Michaelsen, M. Landsfeld, G. Husak, L. S. Harrison, J. Rowland, M. Budde, K. R. Knapp, S. E. Nicholson, and T. Dinku

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Awards Banquet Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


99th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Thursday, 10 January 2019

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 12A
African Climate Variability and Change—Part I
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Kerry H. Cook, The Univ. of Texas at Austin; Wassila Thiaw, CPC
8:30 AM
12A.1
A Systematic Comparison of Tropical Waves over Northern Africa
Andreas Schlueter, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink, P. Knippertz, and P. Vogel
8:45 AM
12A.3
Recording files available
Session 12B
Communicating Climate Change
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Mike Nelson, KMGH-TV
8:45 AM
12B.2
Stability and Instability in Individual Beliefs about Climate Change
Hank Jenkins-Smith, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. T. Ripberger, C. Silva, and W. W. Wehde
9:00 AM
12B.3
Transforming Climate Data into Climate Information Products for Communication—The Copernicus Climate Change Service Experience
Freja Vamborg, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and P. Berrisford, C. Bergeron, C. Buontempo, D. Dee, H. Hersbach, I. Rozum, A. Simmons, and J. N. Thépaut
9:15 AM
12B.4
Statistical Downscaling over Illinois Using Self-Organizing Maps
Andrew Polasky, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and H. L. Hamilton, J. L. Evans, and J. D. Fuentes
Recording files available
Session 12C
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part I
Location: North 129B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Montana Etten-Bohm, Texas A&M University; Lidia Huaman Chuquihuaccha, Texas A&M University
8:30 AM
12C.1
Changes in ENSO Patterns Revealed from MERRA-2, TRMM/TMPA, and AIRS Data
Andrey Savtchenko, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman, B. Vollmer, and D. Meyer
8:45 AM
12C.2
Dynamics of ENSO Diversity
Fei-Fei Jin, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
9:00 AM
12C.3
Cross-Equatorial Winds Control El Niño Diversity and Change
Shineng Hu, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and A. Fedorov
9:15 AM
12C.4
ENSO Asymmetry and Subsurface Nonlinear Dynamical Heating in Reanalysis and CMIP5 Climate Models
Michiya Hayashi, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and F. F. Jin

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 13A
African Climate Variability and Change—Part II
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Edward K. Vizy, The Univ. of Texas at Austin; Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
10:30 AM
13A.1
Seasonal Variability of Early and Late Onset Monsoon Seasons in the Sahel
Catherine Pomposi, UCSB Climate Hazards Group, Santa Barbara, CA; and S. Shukla and C. C. Funk

10:45 AM
13A.2
On the Equatorial East Africa Floods during the Spring 2018 Rainfall Season
Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD
11:00 AM
13A.3
An Examination of Rainfall Trends in Equatorial Africa Using Newly Created Datasets
Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and D. Klotter

11:15 AM
13.4
Paper 13.4 is presenting at 11:45 as paper 13A.6A

11:30 AM
13A.5
A New and Flexible Rainy Season Definition: Validation for the Greater Horn of Africa and Application to Rainfall Trends
Larisa S. Seregina, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink, R. van der Linden, N. Elagib, and J. G. Pinto
11:45 AM
13A.6A
Moving Beyond the East African Climate Paradox
Chris C. Funk, USGS/Earth Resources Observation Systems, Santa Barbara, CA; and S. E. Nicholson and A. Fink
Recording files available
Session 13B
Cities and Megacities: Climate Variability, Change, and Extremes
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chairs: Margaret Hurwitz, Science Systems and Applications, Inc.; Shanna N. McClain, NASA
10:30 AM
13B.1A
The NASA–Rio de Janeiro Partnership: Enhancing Rio de Janeiro’s Climate Resilience and Environmental Monitoring
Margaret Hurwitz, Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Greenbelt, MD; and D. Kirschbaum and F. Mandarino

10:45 AM
13B.2A
High-Resolution Climate Simulations of the Arabian Peninsula for Regional Sustainability Studies
Muge Komurcu, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and C. A. Schlosser, I. S. Alshehri, T. Alshahrani, W. Alhayaza, and A. AlSaati

11:00 AM
13B.3
11:15 AM
13B.4
Simulating Personal Heat Exposure in Cities with the ICARUS Model
David M. Hondula, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and M. Chester, A. Middel, A. Fraser, D. Eisenman, C. G. Hoehne, L. E. Watkins, K. Gerster, and J. Grotts
Recording files available
Session 13C
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part II
Location: North 129B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ.
10:30 AM
13C.1
Marine Heat Waves under Global Warming (Invited Presentation)
Thomas Froelicher, Univ. of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; and E. M. Fischer, N. Gruber, S. Striegel, and C. Laufkötter
10:45 AM
13C.2
Understanding and Predicting ENSO's Influence on the California Current System
Michael A. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Jacox, J. D. Scott, and G. Hervieux

11:00 AM
13C.3
Optimal Precursors of U.S. West Coast Marine Warming
Antonietta Capotondi, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

11:15 AM
13C.4
ENSO Normals: A New Normals Product Conditioned by ENSO Phase and Intensity and Accounting for Secular Trends
Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC; and A. Arguez, A. K. Inamdar, M. Palecki, and A. H. Young
11:30 AM
13C.5
CMIP5 Model-Analog Seasonal Forecast Skill: A Metric for Model Evaluation of ENSO
Hui Ding, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, M. A. Alexander, and A. Wittenberg

11:45 AM
13C.6
Improving ENSO and Its Related SST Forecasts by Accounting for Annual Cycle Effects
Sang-Ik Shin, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado Boulder and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, P. D. Sardeshmukh, C. Penland, and M. Alexander
12:00 PM
Skillful Climate Forecast of the Tropical Indo-Pacific SST Variations Using Model-Analogues -- Hui Ding

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Lunch Break (Thurs)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 7
Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Projection in the 21st Century—Beyond PDSI I
Location: North 126BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Cochairs: Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Pierre Gentine, Columbia Univ.; Michael Barlage, NCAR; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Univ. of California; Daniel Barrie, NOAA
1:30 PM
J7.1A
Using the US Climate Reference Network to Improve Gridded Soil Moisture Products over the Conterminous US
Michael Buban, ARL, Oak Ridge, TN; and C. B. Baker, T. P. Meyers, and C. R. Hain
2:00 PM
J7.3
The Always Evolving United States Drought Monitor: Adapting Over Time
Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln, NE; and M. Svoboda, D. J. Bathke, and C. J. Riganti
2:15 PM
J7.4
ADI: An Improved Index for Remote-Sensing-Based Monitoring of Agricultural Drought
Liping Di, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and L. Guo and L. Lin
2:30 PM
J7.5
Characterizing Snow Drought Conditions across the United States
Laurie S. Huning, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and A. AghaKouchak

2:45 PM
J7.6
Employing Multiple Drought Indices for Global Decision Support
Justyn D. Jackson, USAF, Asheville, NC; and R. B. Kiess
Recording files available
Session 14A
Climate Extremes in the Tropical Americas: Past, Present, and Future
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Elinor R. Martin, Univ. of Oklahoma; Kristine DeLong, Louisiana State Univ.
1:45 PM
14A.2
Can We Trust Model Projections of Changes in Climate Extremes over the Tropical Americas?
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. W. A. Wang, G. P. Compo, and C. McColl

2:15 PM
14A.4
2:45 PM
14A.6
Last Interglacial Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Warm Pool: A Comparison of Model and Coral-Based Reconstructions
Kristine DeLong, Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA; and E. Martin, G. Ouellette Jr., N. Goodkin, F. Taylor, and C. C. Shen

Recording files available
Session 14B
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part III
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Sarah Larson, North Carolina State Univ.
1:30 PM
14B.1
Magnitude and Symmetry of Divergent Heat Flux Anomalies Associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Evan J. Kutta, West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, WV; and J. A. Hubbart, T. P. Eichler, and A. R. Lupo
1:45 PM
14B.2
The South Pacific Meridional Mode as a Thermally Driven Source of ENSO Amplitude Modulation and Uncertainty
Sarah Larson, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. Pegion and B. Kirtman
2:15 PM
14B.4
Predictability of El Niño Duration in a Coupled General Circulation Model
Xian Wu, The Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and Y. M. Okumura and P. DiNezio
2:30 PM
14B.5
Impact of South Pacific Subtropical Dipole Mode on the Equatorial Pacific
Jian Zheng, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China; and F. Wang and M. A. Alexander
2:45 PM
14B.6
Recording files available
Session 14C
Land Use and Land Cover Change—Interactions with Climate
Location: North 129B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Bradford Johnson, The Univ. of Georgia; Marcus Williams, USDA
1:45 PM
14C.2
A Global Gridded Land Use and Land Cover Change Dataset for the 21st Century Downscaled from GCAM Projections
Min Chen, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD; and C. Vernon, M. Huang, K. Calvin, and I. Kraucunas

2:00 PM
14C.3
Initial Development for Simulating Land Surface Change Impacts on Climate in the Northern Great Plains
Aaron K. Scott, Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and A. D. Kennedy and J. Starr

2:30 PM
14C.5
2:45 PM
14C.6

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Thurs)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 9
Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Projection in the 21st Century—Beyond PDSI II
Location: North 126BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Cochairs: Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Pierre Gentine, Columbia Univ.; Michael Barlage, NCAR; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Univ. of California; Daniel Barrie, NOAA
3:30 PM
J9.1A
Providing Crop-Specific Flash Drought Information
Peter Goble, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and R. Bolinger
3:45 PM
J9.2
Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index Estimates Improves Drought Estimation
Sujay V. Kumar, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. Mocko, S. Wang, and C. D. Peters-Lidard
4:15 PM
J9.4
Exploring the Sensitivity of US Drought Prediction Skill to Land Initial States
Chul-Su Shin, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and B. Huang, P. A. Dirmeyer, and A. Kumar

4:30 PM
J9.5
On the Dynamics of Social Response to the 2011-17 California Drought
Jonghun Kam, Univ. of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL; and K. Stowers and S. Y. Kim
4:45 PM
J9.6A
Tales of Two Products: What Can We Learn from NCEI's New Daily Grids and Area Averages of Temperature and Precipitation?
Imke Durre, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and R. Vose and C. J. Schreck III

Recording files available
Session 15A
Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future
Location: North 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Huei-Ping Huang, Arizona State Univ.
3:45 PM
15A.2
Global Temperature Modes Shed Light on the Holocene Temperature Conundrum
Juergen Bader, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

4:30 PM
15A.5
ERA5: State-of-the-Art Global Atmospheric Reanalysis at ECMWF
Hans Hersbach, ECMWF, Reading, U.K.; and W. Bell, P. Berrisford, D. Dee, A. Horanyi, C. Peubey, R. Radu, P. de Rosnay, J. Munoz Sabater, R. Dragani, D. Schepers, A. J. Simmons, C. Soci, and J. N. Thépaut
Recording files available
Session 15B
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part IV
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ.
3:30 PM
15B.1
Seasonal Evolutions of ENSO Teleconnections and Impacts on North America
Bor-Ting Jong, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and M. Ting and R. Seager
3:45 PM
15B.2
Climatology of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity during Different ENSO Phases
Irenea Lodangco, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie

4:00 PM
15B.3
Understanding Connections of Tropics–Arctic Is Necessary to Explain ENSO Diversity
Sang-Wook Yeh, Hanyang Univ., Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. R. Kim

Handout (2.3 MB)

4:15 PM
15B.4
A Coupled Dynamic Index for ENSO Periodicity
Hong-Li Ren, Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and B. Lu and F. F. Jin
4:30 PM
15B.5
Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Tropospheric Variability: El Niño 2019 and La Niña 2020
Robert J. Leamon, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and S. McIntosh
4:45 PM
15B.6
Understanding ENSO Complexity as a Result of ENSO Modes–Annual Cycle Interaction
Ruihuang Xie, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China; and F. F. Jin

5:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


99th AMS Annual Meeting Adjourns