Influence of Increased Global Climate Model Resolution on Representation of Extreme Events: Case Studies from the EU Horizon 2020 Project PRIMAVERA

The EU Horizon 2020 project PRIMAVERA (“PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high-resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment”) is exploring how the latest generation of high-resolution global climate models could enhance our ability to study European extreme events. The expectation is that these models will be capable of simulating and predicting regional climate with unprecedented fidelity compared to traditional resolution (> 100 km) models, yielding benefits for governments, business and society in general.

Higher-resolution (both spatial and temporal) simulations are vital to assess how the risk of high-impact climate events, such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, is projected to change over the coming decades. PRIMAVERA will explore the extent to which increased resolution improves the representation of the physical processes behind these high-impact events.

In addition, PRIMAVERA is working with user communities to explore how this increased resolution can add value for decision-making. A wide range of decision-makers need information from climate models. However, common barriers to using climate information is a lack of understanding by users of what information can reasonably be provided by state-of-the-art climate science, and a lack of knowledge by the climate scientists of what information is required by users for it to be usable in practical decision-making. PRIMAVERA aims to produce user-relevant scientific outputs, whilst ensuring that scientific integrity is maintained, and avoiding overinterpretation of / overconfidence in the science.

The engagement with end-users and stakeholders from the insurance, transport, energy, health, and agriculture sectors is an important part of the project. The initial contacts with the users aimed to define their needs for actionable climate data and information. Continued collaborative activities between providers and users will help scientists understand decision-makers’ short-term (operational) and longer-term (planning) strategies that are affected by climate variability. A User Interface Platform is developed to share user-relevant resources with the user community.

This presentation showcases a number of user-focused case studies, demonstrating the pull-through from scientific research to real-world decision-making processes. An example of these case studies is the collaborative work with participants from the insurance industry focused on evaluation of the fidelity of the high-resolution climate models to represent extra-tropical cyclones that bring large societal impacts due to high winds and large amounts of rain often leading to flooding.

PRIMAVERA has received funding from the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement no. 641727.