Variability in CFSv2 Hindcast Skill for the MJO and Equatorial Waves

This study uses a novel method of Fourier filtering observations and CFSv2 forecasts to evaluate the model’s skill at predicting subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) tropical modes, including the MJO, Kelvin waves, and equatorial Rossby waves. In particular, we will examine variations of that skill by season, MJO phase, and equatorial wave activity. It is hypothesized that skill is highest when the MJO is active.