Handout (1.2 MB)

IPCC’s Bern model is a curve-fit to the output of climate models. It predicts 15 percent of human CO2 emissions will remain in the atmosphere forever and the remainder will remain in the atmosphere much longer than IPCC’s natural residence time of 4 years.

IPCC (2007) claims the reason for this extended residence time is because “The fraction of anthropogenic CO2 that is taken up by the ocean declines with increasing CO2 concentration, due to reduced buffer capacity of the carbonate system.” This IPCC claim says the outflow of CO2 from the atmosphere decreases with the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Here are some problems with these IPCC claims.

The 14C data from the atomic bomb tests in the 1960’s contradicts the IPCC climate change theory and its claims. The bomb tests increased the level of 14CO2 by over 80 percent. After their termination in 1963, the 14C level decreased exponentially toward its former equilibrium level of 100 percent. Specifically, the level decreased by one-half its level above 100 percent every ten years from 1965 to 1995.

The exact decrease of the 14C level with time can be simulated by a very simple model that consists of the continuity equation and the assumption that the outflow of 14CO2 from the atmosphere equals the level divided by the 1/e residence time. Let’s assume 14CO2 follows the same outflow process as 12CO2 except the heavier isotope will have a longer residence time than the lighter isotope. There are no valid challenges to this assumption in the literature.

The first contradiction is the IPCC Bern model cannot simulate the 14C data. If a prediction is wrong, then the theory is wrong.

The second contradiction is the exact simulation of the 14C data by the simple model proves CO2 outflow is proportional to level. This contradicts the IPCC claim that outflow decreases with level. Therefore, human emissions have not reduced the “buffer capacity of the carbonate system.” Therefore, the Bern model is wrong. Therefore, climate models are wrong.

The third contradiction is the simple model also concludes, using simple math, that natural CO2 emissions cause 392 ppm of today’s CO2 level and human CO2 emissions cause only 18 ppm, for a total of 410 ppm today. So, the model that simulates the 14C data contradicts IPCC’s fundamental claim that human emissions have caused all the increase in CO2 since 1750.

Supplementary URL: https://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/contradictions-to-ipccs-climate-change-theory/