Users Perspectives on S2S Forecast Products for Extreme Precipitation Events

Heavy precipitation events are a risk to life, society, and the economy. Fast-moving waters can kill and injure people and wildlife, water supplies can become contaminated from runoff, waterborne diseases can spread after floods, and infrastructure can be damaged by dam failures, power and transportation disruption, or severe erosion. Although most sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S; 14 to 90 days) forecasts have poor skill, decision makers need this lead time for planning, preparing, and resilience-building.

The goal of the NSF-funded PRES2iP project (Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Subseasonal to Seasonal Periods) is to enhance understanding of sub-seasonal to seasonal extreme precipitation events and improve their prediction to increase societal resilience to those events. This research requires two-way communications among researchers, forecasters, and local or regional decision makers so as to develop usable products. To address this matter, the PRES2iP team invited 22 representatives from three targeted user communities (water resource managers, emergency managers, and tribal environmental professionals) to jointly steer the science toward useful characteristics that matter most to those who use and rely on predictions of extreme rainfall. During a multi-day workshop, the researchers asked many questions about how stakeholders defined “extreme precipitation”, what impacts it has on their jurisdiction, how they account for uncertainty during their decision processes, and how they interpret precipitation forecast products. This presentation will summarize what we learned, which is not only useful for our team, but also to the broader forecasting community.