The Current Development Status of Next Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS3)

In this talk, the current development status of next seasonal ensemble prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS3: Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 3) will be presented. As a new version of the JMA/MRI-CPS2, currently operated for the purpose of three-month, warm/cold season, and El Niño predictions, JMA/MRI-CPS3 is now under development aiming for further improvement of the prediction skills.

JMA/MRI-CPS3 will employ higher resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea-ice models, compared with current operational JMA/MRI-CPS2. Eddy-permitting resolution of the new ocean model is expected to reduce the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias. The ocean initial condition will be improved by updating from 3DVar to 4DVar DA system, and the sea-ice initial condition will be also improved by introducing sea-ice assimilation system, which is not applied in JMA/MRI-CPS2. We will also consider a weakly-coupled DA system to reduce the initialization shock. We will show preliminary results including prediction skill of annual variability and bias.