Session 12C El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Dynamics, Diversity, Prediction, and Impacts—Part I

Thursday, 10 January 2019: 8:30 AM-9:30 AM
North 129B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chris C. Funk, USGS/Earth Resources Observation Systems, Geography Department, Climate Hazard Group, Santa Barbara, CA; Robert S. Webb, NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO and Shraddhanand Shukla, Univ. of California, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, CA
Montana Etten-Bohm, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX and Lidia Huaman Chuquihuaccha, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

New research across multiple areas of climate science is emphasizing the potential hazards, and opportunities for prediction, associated with exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures. While such extremes are an anticipated climate change outcome, the science surrounding our ability to describe, explain and predict the climate hazards associated with these anomalous ocean conditions is still rapidly evolving. We welcome talks looking at observed or modeled analyses of oceanic temperature extremes or marine heat waves and the associated climatic hazards affecting marine ecosystems (fisheries) or terrestrial environments (droughts floods hurricanes). Also of interest would be presentations looking at relevant modes of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, studies treating the predictability of such extremes on seasonal or decadal time scales, and analyses discussing the design and implementation of early warning and information systems capable of coping with future extreme SST states. As the earth warms, more extreme sea surface temperatures appear likely. In many ways, our current modeling and monitoring systems appear well positioned to help us cope with these extremes, mainstreaming climate adaptation through enhanced climate services. This session will seek to address multiple aspects of such systems in one integrative set of presentations.

8:30 AM
Changes in ENSO Patterns Revealed from MERRA-2, TRMM/TMPA, and AIRS Data
Andrey Savtchenko, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman, B. Vollmer, and D. Meyer
8:45 AM
Dynamics of ENSO Diversity
Fei-Fei Jin, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
9:00 AM
Cross-Equatorial Winds Control El Niño Diversity and Change
Shineng Hu, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and A. Fedorov
9:15 AM
ENSO Asymmetry and Subsurface Nonlinear Dynamical Heating in Reanalysis and CMIP5 Climate Models
Michiya Hayashi, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and F. F. Jin

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