Poster Session World Weather Research Programme

Tuesday, 8 January 2019: 4:00 PM-6:00 PM
Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on Catalyzing Innovation in Weather Science Internationally

Science and innovation are at the heart of the WMO strategy for improving national capacity to face weather hazards in a changing climate and to provide better weather- and climate-related services to all citizens worldwide. The WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) aims to expand the frontier of weather science by exploring new predictive capabilities, connecting weather and climate communities, and improving all elements of the weather information value chain. Innovation is catalyzed through three core projects.

The High-Impact Weather project (HIWeather) is a 10-yr activity within the World Weather Research Programme to promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high-impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for time scales of minutes to 2 weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic, and environmental applications. Climate change is constraining us to improve preparedness for future hazards over a wide range of applications and actors. A first approach would be the evaluation of the level of resilience for current society, detecting crucial thresholds—for specific sectors and society as a whole—beyond which environmental, social, or economic stability would be endangered. HIWeather is aimed at developing and applying new knowledge for 21st-century disaster risk reduction.

Concerns about amplification of anthropogenic climate change has led to a growing interest in the polar regions in recent years. Furthermore, increasing economic and transportation activities in polar regions are leading to more demand for sustained and improved availability of integrated observational and predictive weather, climate, and water information to support decision-making. However, many gaps in weather, subseasonal, and seasonal forecasting in polar regions hamper reliable decision-making. The World Weather Research Programme's Polar Prediction Project aims to advance the science in numerical modeling, observing, assimilation, ensemble forecast methods, verification, user engagement, and the production of prediction products—all with a polar emphasis. The Year of Polar Prediction, whose core phase runs from mid-2017 to mid-2019, is the key activity of PPP.

The World Weather and World Climate Research Programmes launched the Subseasonal to Seasonal Project aiming to provide predictions from 2 weeks to 2 months ahead From the end-user perspective, the subseasonal to seasonal time range is a very important one, as many management decisions in agriculture and food security, water disaster risk reduction, and health fall into this range. Improved weather-to-climate forecasts tailored to key social needs promise to be of significant social and economic value. Recent research has indicated potential sources of predictability for the subseasonal to seasonal time range. Identifying windows of opportunity with increased forecast skill could be the basis for enhanced, actionable forecasts. Specific attention is paid to the risk of extreme events, including tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, heat waves, and the waxing and waning of monsoon precipitation.

Papers:
Poster 748 "Driving Innovation Together: The World Weather Research Programme"

749
Nowcasting and Forecasting High-Impact Weather: Current Status and Future Challenges
Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Sun, J. Dudhia, B. W. Golding, K. Gouda, P. Joe, P. Steinle, B. Vincendon, and J. Wang

751
Advanced Prediction in the Arctic and Beyond: Half Way into the Applicate Project
Thomas Jung, Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

752
ECMWF Activities Connected to Polar Prediction Project
Linus Magnusson, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and I. Sandu, J. J. Day, P. Bauer, M. Fuentes, R. Mladek, and G. Arduini

753
RAP for YOPP: The NOAA Rapid Refresh Model and Its Contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction
David D. Turner, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, E. James, C. Alexander, T. Ladwig, H. Lin, S. Weygandt, J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, G. Grell, G. de Boer, J. Intrieri, A. Solomon, T. Uttal, C. J. Cox, and M. Maahn

754
Characterization of the Structure of Tropopause Polar Vortices through Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Retrievals
Ryan Pajela, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo and D. D. Turner

755
Evaluation of the Health-Impact Oriented Global Subseasonal Excessive Heat Outlook System during Summer of 2018
Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD

756
Subseasonal Forecasts over the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico and Verifications
Sarah Suzanne Niarum Diouf, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and W. M. Thiaw and E. Bekele

Handout (1.4 MB)

757
Assessing Seasonal Predictability Sources and Windows of High Predictability in the Climate Forecast System Version 2
Douglas E. Miller, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

759
Ensemble Size and Skill of the NCEP CFSv2
Malaquias Peña, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and S. Saha and H. van den Dool

760
Catalyzing Innovations With Observations: Building What We Need, Not What We Have.
Betsy Weatherhead, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO; and S. K. Avery

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner