Managing for Drought. Part III: Sources of Uncertainty in Decision-Making for Northern Plains Agricultural Producers Affected by the 2016 Drought

Agricultural producers make operational, tactical and strategic decisions before and during drought that have significant consequences in terms of farm/ranch finances, productivity, and ecological health. They make these decisions in the context of multiple sources of uncertainty, ranging from farm policy, market prices, and resource constraints, to the uncertainties associated with the onset, severity, and length of the drought event. For example, in 2016, a quickly-developing drought event occurred across the northern U.S. High Plains in 2016, leading to forest and grassland fires, reductions in grain yields, reduced forage production, water quality and quantity problems, and economic losses. Drought impacts were compounded by a late May freeze event that degraded range and forage productivity. At the same time, farmers were experiencing reduced farm income and reduced funds available for financing, due to farm commodity (e.g. corn, soy, and wheat) and livestock prices, which had been on a downward trend since 2012. We conducted a survey and focus groups of agricultural producers affected by the 2016 drought to better understand their perceptions of uncertainty around the outcomes of their drought management, their use of drought monitoring information, and their perceptions of how improvements in early warning might translate to improved decision making. This talk will describe sources of uncertainty in drought management related to the typologies of decision making described in partner presentations by Wilke and Friedman. We link these perceptions of uncertainty with use of drought monitoring information in decision making. Our findings have implications for the provision of drought early warning, as well as climate information provision more generally.