Managing for Drought. Part IV: Dynamic Uncertainties Arising from Drought Decisions

Drought is a slow disaster that generates long-term impacts on agricultural producers and growing communities across the West, even after a drought has ended. In their efforts to recover, many make decisions (e.g. modify practices, diversify water sources, or enter into new relationships) to reduce future drought impacts, especially insufficient water or poor water quality. Uncertainties around these decisions, framed in this talk as unintended consequences from decisions made after a recent drought, can generate unforeseen harm in the same water system. These effects can be surprising in their propagation and negative effect on others, as well as the ways they allow for what we call “creeping resilience.” Such dynamics are especially salient in areas that are transforming from largely agricultural areas to more urban areas in the West where water supplies are already strained. This study draws on semi-structured interviews across multiple sectors and spatialities of the Arkansas River in Colorado. Analysis of these interviews suggests different types of unexpected vulnerabilities, such as entire rural communities depleted of economic viability, and resiliences, such as river flow programs that create healthier fish populations. This case will be presented in conversation with presenters Friedman, Haigh, and Wilke, and offer useful points of comparison about the types of non-meteorological uncertainties that attend to decisions made in the context of managing for drought. Results highlight how additional variables related to time, memory, and culture potentially shape the dynamics of vulnerability around drought.