9.6 Updated Sources of Weather Deaths in Florida

Thursday, 10 January 2019: 11:15 AM
North 221AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
William P. Roeder, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick Air Force Base, FL; and J. D. Rapp

Knowing the number and relative frequency of weather deaths in a state or region and trends in those sources of weather deaths can be used to more effectively educate the public on weather hazards and help build a weather-ready nation. As an overly simplistic obvious example, neither avalanche education in Florida nor rip current education in Kansas would be a wise use of weather safety education resources. A similar analysis of weather property damage by state or region could likewise help build a weather-ready nation.

The sources of weather deaths in Florida was updated. An update was needed since the previous analysis covered 1959-1999. Not only have many more years of observations accumulated since then, but there was anecdotal evidence that the number of lightning deaths was decreasing. This update gives the number of weather deaths in Florida over the past 30 years (1987-2016) from various weather phenomena and the relative percentage contribution from each. In addition, hypothesis testing was applied to determine if there are any statistically significant trends in the sources of weather deaths. The number of lightning deaths indeed has been decreasing, suggesting that the increase in lightning safety education that began in the late 1990s has been effective. This information is being used by 45th Weather Squadron to improve their weather safety training program and can be used by all interested parties in Florida to optimize their weather safety education efforts.

The project was part of a collaborative project between the 45th Weather Squadron and Lake Nona High School in Orlando. The 45th Weather Squadron is the U.S. Air Force unit that provides weather support to America’s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center. The advanced placement statistics and advanced placement calculus classes at Lake Nona High School performed two research projects for the 45th Weather Squadron at no financial cost to either organization. This updated sources of Florida weather deaths was the first project. The second project was a climatology of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center, which are the complex weather rules to avoid natural and rocket-triggered strikes to inflight space launch vehicles. The 45th Weather Squadron benefits from the research. The Lake Nona High School benefits include increasing the students’ interests in Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) topics and gaining experience in leadership, management, and teamwork.

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