WRF Simulations of the Onset of the 2009 Convective Season in the Southeastern United States

Isolated precipitation features (IPF) are short-lived, small, and spatially heterogeneous features that are most predominant during summertime in the southeast United States. They are thermodynamically driven and make up 30%-50% of the total summer precipitation. Using radar data and a precipitation organization classification algorithm, Rickenbach et al. (2015) established that the springtime transition to predominantly IPF occurs abruptly between the months of March-June. The goal of this study is to investigate whether the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is able to capture the observed springtime transition to increased IPF and shed light on the mechanisms for the shift. WRF simulations for March through June 2009 will be run using a set-up similar to that in Nissenbaum (2016). The results of this study will then be used to study the effect of climate change on the abrupt onset of the IPF rainy season in the Southeast United States.

References:

Nissenbaum, M., & Nieto-Ferreira, R. (2016). Climate change effects on precipitation organization: a summertime case study in the southeast United States (Unpublished master's thesis). East Carolina University.

Rickenbach, T. M., R. Nieto-Ferreira, C. Zarzar, and B. Nelson, 2015: A seasonal and diurnal climatology of precipitation organization in the southeastern United States. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 141, 1938-1956.