Session 8B Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis I

Wednesday, 9 January 2019: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
North 126BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hydrology
Cochairs:
Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ., School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing; Kristie J. Franz, Iowa State Univ., Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, IA and Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC/SAIC, Hydrological Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD

Over the last several decades, substantial progress has been achieved in probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting theories and applications. However, significant challenges still exist in assessing the uncertainty of complex hydrometeorological processes and improving the quality of hydrometeorological predictions, especially high-impact hydrometeorological events. This session solicits papers that focus on, but are not limited to, (1) addressing uncertainty in hydrometeorological forecasting from a number of sources in both offline and couple systems, and (2) innovative methods in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting. The former might include uncertainties in forcing data (e.g., quantitative precipitation estimation, meteorological forcing data), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture, heterogeneous geographical conditions), parameters, model structure (physics), and calibration.  The latter emphasizes integrated ensemble methods to improve individual hydrologic and atmospheric models, coupled atmosphere–land–hydrology systems, verification methods to evaluate probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting, and technologies to process systematic errors of hydrometeorological forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. Work on topics of statistical postprocessing of hydrometeorological model output and assessing the uncertainty of postprocessing are also encouraged.

Papers:
8:30 AM
8B.2A
Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for a Multi-Purpose Reservoir in Northern California
Chris J. Delaney, Sonoma County Water Agency, Santa Rosa, CA; and J. R. Mendoza, R. K. Hartman, and C. W. Hecht

Handout (2.6 MB)

8:45 AM
8B.2
Tools for use of Predictive Rainfall within Irrigation Decision Aids, Downscaling of Soil Moisture, and Non-Gaussian Data Assimilation for Agricultural/Military Applications and Analysis of Atmospheric River Events
Andrew S. Jones, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. A. Andales, J. L. Chavez, C. McGovern, G. E. B. Smith, J. P. Deshon, J. D. Niemann, S. J. Fletcher, J. M. Forsythe, M. Goodliff, and A. Kliewer

9:00 AM
8B.3
Improving Heavy Rain Forecast by Using Strongly Constrained Radial Wind Analysis
Juxiang Peng, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, China; and Y. Xie
9:15 AM
8B.4
9:30 AM
8B.5
Convective System QPF Displacement Errors in HRRRE and Potential Use for Shifting QPF Fields to Improve Flood Forecasting
Benjamin M. Kiel, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., K. J. Franz, and B. R. Carlberg
9:45 AM
8B.6
Improving Snowfall Accumulation Forecasting in Colorado
Leland MacDonald, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and P. T. Schlatter and K. Fredin
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner