Sunday, 6 January 2019
4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019
Monday, 7 January 2019
8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019
High-impact hydrometeorological events produce the most destructive and costly outcomes of any weather-driven phenomena worldwide. Furthermore, despite significant progress over the last several decades, forecasting and warning for these events still lacks the precision that could minimize loss of property and life, especially in developing nations. However, new observational platforms (in situ, remote) and data-collection methods are improving our ability to assess ongoing events as well as forecast and distinguish those that could be destructive from those that probably will not be. Excessive precipitation or runoff associated with tropical cyclones/convection, land-based convection, atmospheric rivers, ENSO, wintertime snowmelt, rain-on-snow, etc. results in both flash-flooding and large-river system floods whose characteristics often depend on local soils, vegetation/agriculture, and topography. Conversely, severe droughts create deleterious impacts on crop/food production and the water supply. In this session, papers are invited that contribute to our ability to improve real-time/operational forecasts and warnings for these kinds of extremes, especially observational and modeling approaches that may vary depending upon differing societal contexts. In addition, papers that address promising and innovative methods of assessing and modeling the statistics of observed hydrometeorological extremes as applied to real-time/operational forecasting/warning systems are encouraged. Papers that document forecast system performance vis-a-vis the effect of including new or additional observations are also encouraged, as well as new or innovative approaches to communicating vital "extremes" information to stakeholders.
In snow-dominated basins across the globe, efficient water resource management requires accurate, timely estimates of both snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow melt onset. Melting snow provides a reliable water supply and can also produce wide-scale flooding hazards, particularly when combined with rainfall. An accurate estimate of snow volume, melt timing and the spatial distribution of both parameters is important for predicting runoff response for water resource and hydropower management as well as providing insight into important ecological and biogeochemical processes. Remote sensing and modeling techniques provide methods for observing and detecting snow evolution, onset of snowmelt, spatial extent of melt processes, and vulnerability to extreme flood hazards that may result. Both existing and novel remote sensing techniques have been developed to estimate snow evolution timing including the detection of liquid water in the snowpack. Snow reconstruction and energy balance snow models have shown the ability to estimate snow properties, such as snow volume, liquid water content and melt. Observational, in-situ datasets that drive these models with meteorological inputs and modify the model through data assimilation techniques are critical in accurately portraying the natural phenomena of snow evolution. Reanalysis datasets have also proven valuable to forensically investigate large flooding events caused by snow melt. This session invites interdisciplinary research on existing and novel methods for remote sensing, modeling, and data assimilation of snow evolution, particularly snow melt timing and efforts linked to increased volume of discharge for water resource and hydropower management as well as resiliency and vulnerability to extreme flood events.
10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019
AM Coffee Break (Monday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019
High-impact hydrometeorological events produce the most destructive and costly outcomes of any weather-driven phenomena worldwide. Furthermore, despite significant progress over the last several decades, forecasting and warning for these events still lacks the precision that could minimize loss of property and life, especially in developing nations. However, new observational platforms (in situ, remote) and data-collection methods are improving our ability to assess ongoing events as well as forecast and distinguish those that could be destructive from those that probably will not be. Excessive precipitation or runoff associated with tropical cyclones/convection, land-based convection, atmospheric rivers, ENSO, wintertime snowmelt, rain-on-snow, etc. results in both flash-flooding and large-river system floods whose characteristics often depend on local soils, vegetation/agriculture, and topography. Conversely, severe droughts create deleterious impacts on crop/food production and the water supply. In this session, papers are invited that contribute to our ability to improve real-time/operational forecasts and warnings for these kinds of extremes, especially observational and modeling approaches that may vary depending upon differing societal contexts. In addition, papers that address promising and innovative methods of assessing and modeling the statistics of observed hydrometeorological extremes as applied to real-time/operational forecasting/warning systems are encouraged. Papers that document forecast system performance vis-a-vis the effect of including new or additional observations are also encouraged, as well as new or innovative approaches to communicating vital "extremes" information to stakeholders.
The 33rd Conference on Hydrology is hosting a session on diagnostic model evaluation and improvement of land models. Advancements in earth system modeling require coupling of the atmosphere, hydrologic, land surface, ocean and cryosphere systems. Correspondingly, there are significant challenges in the systematic evaluation of each of the system components and their interactions.
This session seeks to move beyond traditional verification studies that document accuracy of land models, and instead ask questions if models are adequately using the information available to them, what are specific weaknesses in land models, and how can models be improved. As such, the particular interest of this session is to explore the model evaluation challenges in hydrology, land processes and the corresponding impact on coupled land-atmosphere processes and hydrometeorological prediction. With the increase in the variety of model developers and users, more integrated approaches that encapsulate the key water cycle components are needed to improve individual model components and coupled earth system component interactions. In addition, the development of a common, systematic, integrated set of measures will improve the “observability” of various model outputs from these systems. This session solicits contributions on integrated diagnostic evaluation and benchmarking techniques and metrics that promote multi-variate, systematic error and uncertainty quantification across complex modeling components. The session also solicits contributions that pinpoint model weaknesses and introduce innovative modeling approaches to address long-standing challenges simulating heterogeneity, emergent behavior, and process coupling across a range of different space and time scales. A key focus of the session, supporting the conference theme of “understanding and building resilience to extreme events by being interdisciplinary, international and inclusive” is contributions that use multivariate and multiscale observations to diagnose model weaknesses and evaluate the fidelity of competing modeling approaches that are relevant for extreme events.
This session will also address the significant challenges associated with assessing the quality and informativeness of both models and data products that are largely related to scale, heterogeneity, complexity, and representativeness. These challenges compound when assessing spatially and temporally distributed products and the fusion of models and data via approaches such as parameter estimation and data assimilation. This session therefore also solicits contributions related to innovative methods for assessing quality of model-data fusion and assessing the fidelity of models of complex terrestrial hydrologic systems in both offline and coupled modes.
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019
2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019
High-impact hydrometeorological events produce the most destructive and costly outcomes of any weather-driven phenomena worldwide. Furthermore, despite significant progress over the last several decades, forecasting and warning for these events still lacks the precision that could minimize loss of property and life, especially in developing nations. However, new observational platforms (in situ, remote) and data-collection methods are improving our ability to assess ongoing events as well as forecast and distinguish those that could be destructive from those that probably will not be. Excessive precipitation or runoff associated with tropical cyclones/convection, land-based convection, atmospheric rivers, ENSO, wintertime snowmelt, rain-on-snow, etc. results in both flash-flooding and large-river system floods whose characteristics often depend on local soils, vegetation/agriculture, and topography. Conversely, severe droughts create deleterious impacts on crop/food production and the water supply. In this session, papers are invited that contribute to our ability to improve real-time/operational forecasts and warnings for these kinds of extremes, especially observational and modeling approaches that may vary depending upon differing societal contexts. In addition, papers that address promising and innovative methods of assessing and modeling the statistics of observed hydrometeorological extremes as applied to real-time/operational forecasting/warning systems are encouraged. Papers that document forecast system performance vis-a-vis the effect of including new or additional observations are also encouraged, as well as new or innovative approaches to communicating vital "extremes" information to stakeholders.
This session focuses on multiple processes analysis and simulation including but not limited to water, energy, carbon and nitrogen cycles in arid and semiarid regions, where water resources and ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change. To investigate the biogeophysical and biogeochemical cycles, the impact of reservoir regulation, irrigation, groundwater pumping, crop planting, fertilization, deforestation and afforestation, are tested, analyzed, and compared from offline land surface modeling and land-atmosphere coupled simulation to those based on reanalysis product, remote sensing, and in situ observations. Furthermore, accuracy, uncertainty, and error analysis for each individual terrestrial component is useful for physical processes understanding and data product application. The temporal scale covers from hourly to inter-decadal scales, and spatial scale covers from local, watershed, regional to global scales. In addition, applications of these data products and multi-scale hydroclimate modeling to drought/flood mechanism, monitoring and prediction, agricultural and water resources management, and long-term trend analysis are also welcome.
4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019
Formal Poster Viewing Reception
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
High-impact hydrometeorological events produce the most destructive and costly outcomes of any weather-driven phenomena world-wide. Furthermore, despite significant progress over the last several decades, forecasting and warning for these events still lacks the precision that could minimize loss of property and life, especially in developing nations. However, new observational platforms (in-situ, remote) and data-collection methods are improving our ability to assess ongoing events as well as forecast and distinguish those that could be destructive from those that probably will not be. Excessive precipitation or runoff associated with tropical cyclones/convection, land-based convection, atmospheric rivers, ENSO, wintertime snow-melt, rain-on-snow, etc. results in both flash-flooding and large-river system floods whose characteristics often depend on local soils, vegetation/agriculture, and topography. Conversely, severe droughts create deleterious impacts on crop/food production and the water supply. In this session, papers are invited that contribute to our ability to improve real-time/operational forecasts and warnings for these kinds of extremes, especially observational and modeling approaches that may vary depending upon differing societal contexts. In addition, papers that address promising and innovative methods of assessing and modeling the statistics of observed hydrometeorological extremes as applied to real-time/operational forecasting/warning systems are encouraged. Papers that document forecast system performance vis-a-vis the effect of including new or additional observations are also encouraged, as well as new or innovative approaches to communicating vital "extremes" information to stakeholders.
The 33rd Conference on Hydrology is hosting a session on diagnostic model evaluation and improvement of land models. Advancements in earth system modeling require coupling of the atmosphere, hydrologic, land surface, ocean and cryosphere systems. Correspondingly, there are significant challenges in the systematic evaluation of each of the system components and their interactions.
This session seeks to move beyond traditional verification studies that document accuracy of land models, and instead ask questions if models are adequately using the information available to them, what are specific weaknesses in land models, and how can models be improved. As such, the particular interest of this session is to explore the model evaluation challenges in hydrology, land processes and the corresponding impact on coupled land-atmosphere processes and hydrometeorological prediction. With the increase in the variety of model developers and users, more integrated approaches that encapsulate the key water cycle components are needed to improve individual model components and coupled earth system component interactions. In addition, the development of a common, systematic, integrated set of measures will improve the “observability” of various model outputs from these systems. This session solicits contributions on integrated diagnostic evaluation and benchmarking techniques and metrics that promote multi-variate, systematic error and uncertainty quantification across complex modeling components. The session also solicits contributions that pinpoint model weaknesses and introduce innovative modeling approaches to address long-standing challenges simulating heterogeneity, emergent behavior, and process coupling across a range of different space and time scales. A key focus of the session, supporting the conference theme of “understanding and building resilience to extreme events by being interdisciplinary, international and inclusive” is contributions that use multivariate and multiscale observations to diagnose model weaknesses and evaluate the fidelity of competing modeling approaches that are relevant for extreme events.
This session will also address the significant challenges associated with assessing the quality and informativeness of both models and data products that are largely related to scale, heterogeneity, complexity, and representativeness. These challenges compound when assessing spatially and temporally distributed products and the fusion of models and data via approaches such as parameter estimation and data assimilation. This session therefore also solicits contributions related to innovative methods for assessing quality of model-data fusion and assessing the fidelity of models of complex terrestrial hydrologic systems in both offline and coupled modes.
This session focuses on multiple processes analysis and simulation including but not limited to water, energy, carbon and nitrogen cycles in arid and semiarid regions, where water resources and ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change. To investigate the biogeophysical and biogeochemical cycles, the impact of reservoir regulation, irrigation, groundwater pumping, crop planting, fertilization, deforestation and afforestation, are tested, analyzed, and compared from offline land surface modeling and land-atmosphere coupled simulation to those based on reanalysis product, remote sensing, and in situ observations. Furthermore, accuracy, uncertainty, and error analysis for each individual terrestrial component is useful for physical processes understanding and data product application. The temporal scale covers from hourly to inter-decadal scales, and spatial scale covers from local, watershed, regional to global scales. In addition, applications of these data products and multi-scale hydroclimate modeling to drought/flood mechanism, monitoring and prediction, agricultural and water resources management, and long-term trend analysis are also welcome.
The global scope of many remote sensing satellite platforms and products facilitates routine monitoring of water resources, deficits and extremes, and monitoring of hydrological processes in regions of sparse observational networks and across political or socioeconomic boundaries. These remote sensing observation can be used in applications related to minimizing basin and regional risk; informing policies to enhance the sustainability of water resources, and supporting capacity building of individuals and institutions through regional programs and alliances. This session will familiarize participants with the work of GEO Global Water Sustainability (GEOGLOWS) program, which bring together experts who can contribute the knowledge to support water management by focusing on the analysis and applications of Essential Water Variables (EWVs). This session will also focus on how the data and methods from satellite remote sensors can be used to help to address the challenges associated with hydrological events across a variety of spatial scales, including interdisciplinary projects and research that address flash and river flooding, extremes associated with tropical cyclones, transboundary water monitoring and predictions, storm surge, tidal events, and impacts to coastal regions. We encourage submissions of research findings on flooding research contributing to and/or explaining the occurrence and magnitudes at any scale for any region of the world.
In snow-dominated basins across the globe, efficient water resource management requires accurate, timely estimates of both snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow melt onset. Melting snow provides a reliable water supply and can also produce wide-scale flooding hazards, particularly when combined with rainfall. An accurate estimate of snow volume, melt timing and the spatial distribution of both parameters is important for predicting runoff response for water resource and hydropower management as well as providing insight into important ecological and biogeochemical processes. Remote sensing and modeling techniques provide methods for observing and detecting snow evolution, onset of snowmelt, spatial extent of melt processes, and vulnerability to extreme flood hazards that may result. Both existing and novel remote sensing techniques have been developed to estimate snow evolution timing including the detection of liquid water in the snowpack. Snow reconstruction and energy balance snow models have shown the ability to estimate snow properties, such as snow volume, liquid water content and melt. Observational, in-situ datasets that drive these models with meteorological inputs and modify the model through data assimilation techniques are critical in accurately portraying the natural phenomena of snow evolution. Reanalysis datasets have also proven valuable to forensically investigate large flooding events caused by snow melt. This session invites interdisciplinary research on existing and novel methods for remote sensing, modeling, and data assimilation of snow evolution, particularly snow melt timing and efforts linked to increased volume of discharge for water resource and hydropower management as well as resiliency and vulnerability to extreme flood events.
6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019
Exhibits Opening and Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Tuesday, 8 January 2019
8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a key component of the global climate system. Water, energy, and carbon transfer between the land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) have important impacts on weather and climate variability, predictability, and extremes such as drought. This session focuses on land-atmosphere interactions and characterization of water, energy, and carbon cycle fluxes, and subsequent feedbacks and coupling between the surface and PBL. In particular, the impacts of soil moisture and evapotranspiration on PBL, cloud, and precipitation development remain a challenge to quantify across a range of scales. We invite observation, satellite, and model-based studies of land-atmosphere interactions, particularly at the process-level, and their applications in weather and climate modeling and predictability. In particular, we emphasize studies that utilize satellite observations and remote sensing for L-A studies.
The global scope of many remote sensing satellite platforms and products facilitates routine monitoring of water resources, deficits and extremes, and monitoring of hydrological processes in regions of sparse observational networks and across political or socioeconomic boundaries. These remote sensing observation can be used in applications related to minimizing basin and regional risk; informing policies to enhance the sustainability of water resources, and supporting capacity building of individuals and institutions through regional programs and alliances. This session will familiarize participants with the work of GEO Global Water Sustainability (GEOGLOWS) program, which bring together experts who can contribute the knowledge to support water management by focusing on the analysis and applications of Essential Water Variables (EWVs). This session will also focus on how the data and methods from satellite remote sensors can be used to help to address the challenges associated with hydrological events across a variety of spatial scales, including interdisciplinary projects and research that address flash and river flooding, extremes associated with tropical cyclones, transboundary water monitoring and predictions, storm surge, tidal events, and impacts to coastal regions. We encourage submissions of research findings on flooding research contributing to and/or explaining the occurrence and magnitudes at any scale for any region of the world.
10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a key component of the global climate system. Water, energy, and carbon transfer between the land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) have important impacts on weather and climate variability, predictability, and extremes such as drought. This session focuses on land-atmosphere interactions and characterization of water, energy, and carbon cycle fluxes, and subsequent feedbacks and coupling between the surface and PBL. In particular, the impacts of soil moisture and evapotranspiration on PBL, cloud, and precipitation development remain a challenge to quantify across a range of scales. We invite observation, satellite, and model-based studies of land-atmosphere interactions, particularly at the process-level, and their applications in weather and climate modeling and predictability. In particular, we emphasize studies that utilize satellite observations and remote sensing for L-A studies.
A number of regional and national real-time flood forecasting systems are emerging for a variety of different flood-related applications. These new systems are taking advantage of new national hydrologic data standards, new advances in supercomputing availability and improvements in model parameterizations and meteorological forcing datasets. This session encourages contributions from all sectors of the AMS enterprise (academic, government and the private sector) who have built and deployed such systems. Additionally, contributions are welcome from researchers who have developed novel methodologies to sense and model flood generation dynamics at a variety of time and space scales. Research and application contributions from within the U.S. as well as internationally are also encouraged.
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a key component of the global climate system. Water, energy, and carbon transfer between the land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) have important impacts on weather and climate variability, predictability, and extremes such as drought. This session focuses on land-atmosphere interactions and characterization of water, energy, and carbon cycle fluxes, and subsequent feedbacks and coupling between the surface and PBL. In particular, the impacts of soil moisture and evapotranspiration on PBL, cloud, and precipitation development remain a challenge to quantify across a range of scales. We invite observation, satellite, and model-based studies of land-atmosphere interactions, particularly at the process-level, and their applications in weather and climate modeling and predictability. In particular, we emphasize studies that utilize satellite observations and remote sensing for L-A studies.
A number of regional and national real-time flood forecasting systems are emerging for a variety of different flood-related applications. These new systems are taking advantage of new national hydrologic data standards, new advances in supercomputing availability and improvements in model parameterizations and meteorological forcing datasets. This session encourages contributions from all sectors of the AMS enterprise (academic, government and the private sector) who have built and deployed such systems. Additionally, contributions are welcome from researchers who have developed novel methodologies to sense and model flood generation dynamics at a variety of time and space scales. Research and application contributions from within the U.S. as well as internationally are also encouraged.
2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a key component of the global climate system. Water, energy, and carbon transfer between the land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) have important impacts on weather and climate variability, predictability, and extremes such as drought. This session focuses on land-atmosphere interactions and characterization of water, energy, and carbon cycle fluxes, and subsequent feedbacks and coupling between the surface and PBL. In particular, the impacts of soil moisture and evapotranspiration on PBL, cloud, and precipitation development remain a challenge to quantify across a range of scales. We invite observation, satellite, and model-based studies of land-atmosphere interactions, particularly at the process-level, and their applications in weather and climate modeling and predictability. In particular, we emphasize studies that utilize satellite observations and remote sensing for L-A studies.
A number of regional and national real-time flood forecasting systems are emerging for a variety of different flood-related applications. These new systems are taking advantage of new national hydrologic data standards, new advances in supercomputing availability and improvements in model parameterizations and meteorological forcing datasets. This session encourages contributions from all sectors of the AMS enterprise (academic, government and the private sector) who have built and deployed such systems. Additionally, contributions are welcome from researchers who have developed novel methodologies to sense and model flood generation dynamics at a variety of time and space scales. Research and application contributions from within the U.S. as well as internationally are also encouraged.
4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Advances in the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and atmospheric evaporative demand (Eo) are made across a broad range of scales and techniques, from in-situ observations to remote sensing and modeling. Specific topics for this session may include but are not limited to: (1) estimating ET from various perspectives: remote sensing platforms, ground-based point observations and parameterizations, plant-based experimentation, and water budgets; (2) operational ET estimation; (3) land surface-atmosphere feedbacks; (4) future remote sensing missions and needs for ET; (5) Eo as an input to operational LSMs to derive ET, schedule crop irrigation, and as a metric of hydroclimatic trends and variability. New methods are emerging to more robustly partition total ET between evaporation and transpiration fluxes from both a modeling and a measurement perspective. We encourage papers with a focus on information conveyed by E and T, as well as ET. This year, recognizing that transpiration is regulated through vegetation hydrodynamics, we are particularly seeking submissions relating to both experimental and theoretical work linking plant hydrodynamics, ecology, hydrology, and meteorology. Understanding and simulating these hydraulic behaviors of vegetation and their outcomes, in terms of water and carbon flux, is key to improving land-surface and hydrologic models. Advances in remote sensing of water content and new databases compiling extensive monitoring records of site- and plant-level water flux and hydraulic trait data are poised for incorporation into such models through an emerging body of vegetation hydrodynamics modeling frameworks.
Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a key component of the global climate system. Water, energy, and carbon transfer between the land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) have important impacts on weather and climate variability, predictability, and extremes such as drought. This session focuses on land-atmosphere interactions and characterization of water, energy, and carbon cycle fluxes, and subsequent feedbacks and coupling between the surface and PBL. In particular, the impacts of soil moisture and evapotranspiration on PBL, cloud, and precipitation development remain a challenge to quantify across a range of scales. We invite observation, satellite, and model-based studies of land-atmosphere interactions, particularly at the process-level, and their applications in weather and climate modeling and predictability. In particular, we emphasize studies that utilize satellite observations and remote sensing for L-A studies.
A number of regional and national real-time flood forecasting systems are emerging for a variety of different flood-related applications. These new systems are taking advantage of new national hydrologic data standards, new advances in supercomputing availability and improvements in model parameterizations and meteorological forcing datasets. This session encourages contributions from all sectors of the AMS enterprise (academic, government and the private sector) who have built and deployed such systems. Additionally, contributions are welcome from researchers who have developed novel methodologies to sense and model flood generation dynamics at a variety of time and space scales. Research and application contributions from within the U.S. as well as internationally are also encouraged.
While many hydroclimate extremes can be explained via internal atmospheric variability, processes that govern the exchange of water and energy exist between the atmosphere and the surface contribute to the development and persistence of extremes. These exchanges are driven by the complex interactions between different vegetation types, soil moisture, surfaces fluxes, precipitation, boundary layer evolution, and upper-air dynamics. Given these processes occur across varying spatial scales, the interconnections between the atmosphere and the surface impact local to global properties of the weather, climate, water, and ecosystems. Further, significant uncertainty exists regarding the future of global hydrological extremes and an improved understanding of the complex interactions between the ecosystem, hydrology and the atmosphere is essential to increased predictability spanning weather, subseasonal to seasonal, and climate scales. This interdisciplinary topic focuses on the numerous interplays between climate, weather, hydrology and ecosystems spanning local to global scales and will include presentations focused on improved understanding of energy and water cycles, the predictability of weather and climate extremes related to weather climate, water, ecosystem dynamics and variability, and the spatial and temporal evolution of their complex interactions. In keeping with the overall theme of the meeting, we encourage submissions highlighting the multidisciplinary nature of these topics.
Large reservoirs provide multiple benefits for water supply and downstream flood reduction. Weather and climate forecasts play a critical role in reservoir operations during extreme events to optimize reservoir storage and reduce downstream flooding. The practice of using forecasts to mitigate downstream flooding is well established and reservoir operators fully consider that information while managing releases through the dam.
Reservoir operators are balancing multiple requirements, reducing downstream flooding, ensuring water supply, increasing water availability, maximizing power generation and, keeping the dam safe. Extreme and remote events challenge both forecaster and operators to quickly determine how to manage designated flood storage and preventing failure of the dam, which include: early releases, increasing spillway releases, and storing water. Incorrect forecasts can magnify the impacts to any one requirement. Interdisciplinary cooperation is necessary to understand the accuracy of the forecasts and improve lead time to optimize operational flood management releases and preventing dam failure.
Wednesday, 9 January 2019
8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Advances in the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and atmospheric evaporative demand (Eo) are made across a broad range of scales and techniques, from in-situ observations to remote sensing and modeling. Specific topics for this session may include but are not limited to: (1) estimating ET from various perspectives: remote sensing platforms, ground-based point observations and parameterizations, plant-based experimentation, and water budgets; (2) operational ET estimation; (3) land surface-atmosphere feedbacks; (4) future remote sensing missions and needs for ET; (5) Eo as an input to operational LSMs to derive ET, schedule crop irrigation, and as a metric of hydroclimatic trends and variability. New methods are emerging to more robustly partition total ET between evaporation and transpiration fluxes from both a modeling and a measurement perspective. We encourage papers with a focus on information conveyed by E and T, as well as ET. This year, recognizing that transpiration is regulated through vegetation hydrodynamics, we are particularly seeking submissions relating to both experimental and theoretical work linking plant hydrodynamics, ecology, hydrology, and meteorology. Understanding and simulating these hydraulic behaviors of vegetation and their outcomes, in terms of water and carbon flux, is key to improving land-surface and hydrologic models. Advances in remote sensing of water content and new databases compiling extensive monitoring records of site- and plant-level water flux and hydraulic trait data are poised for incorporation into such models through an emerging body of vegetation hydrodynamics modeling frameworks.
Over the last several decades, substantial progress has been achieved in probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting theories and applications. However, significant challenges still exist in assessing the uncertainty of complex hydrometeorological processes and improving the quality of hydrometeorological predictions, especially high-impact hydrometeorological events. This session solicits papers that focus on, but are not limited to, (1) addressing uncertainty in hydrometeorological forecasting from a number of sources in both offline and couple systems, and (2) innovative methods in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting. The former might include uncertainties in forcing data (e.g., quantitative precipitation estimation, meteorological forcing data), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture, heterogeneous geographical conditions), parameters, model structure (physics), and calibration. The latter emphasizes integrated ensemble methods to improve individual hydrologic and atmospheric models, coupled atmosphere–land–hydrology systems, verification methods to evaluate probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting, and technologies to process systematic errors of hydrometeorological forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. Work on topics of statistical postprocessing of hydrometeorological model output and assessing the uncertainty of postprocessing are also encouraged.
10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
AM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Advances in the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and atmospheric evaporative demand (Eo) are made across a broad range of scales and techniques, from in-situ observations to remote sensing and modeling. Specific topics for this session may include but are not limited to: (1) estimating ET from various perspectives: remote sensing platforms, ground-based point observations and parameterizations, plant-based experimentation, and water budgets; (2) operational ET estimation; (3) land surface-atmosphere feedbacks; (4) future remote sensing missions and needs for ET; (5) Eo as an input to operational LSMs to derive ET, schedule crop irrigation, and as a metric of hydroclimatic trends and variability. New methods are emerging to more robustly partition total ET between evaporation and transpiration fluxes from both a modeling and a measurement perspective. We encourage papers with a focus on information conveyed by E and T, as well as ET. This year, recognizing that transpiration is regulated through vegetation hydrodynamics, we are particularly seeking submissions relating to both experimental and theoretical work linking plant hydrodynamics, ecology, hydrology, and meteorology. Understanding and simulating these hydraulic behaviors of vegetation and their outcomes, in terms of water and carbon flux, is key to improving land-surface and hydrologic models. Advances in remote sensing of water content and new databases compiling extensive monitoring records of site- and plant-level water flux and hydraulic trait data are poised for incorporation into such models through an emerging body of vegetation hydrodynamics modeling frameworks.
Over the last several decades, substantial progress has been achieved in probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting theories and applications. However, significant challenges still exist in assessing the uncertainty of complex hydrometeorological processes and improving the quality of hydrometeorological predictions, especially high-impact hydrometeorological events. This session solicits papers that focus on, but are not limited to, (1) addressing uncertainty in hydrometeorological forecasting from a number of sources in both offline and couple systems, and (2) innovative methods in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting. The former might include uncertainties in forcing data (e.g., quantitative precipitation estimation, meteorological forcing data), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture, heterogeneous geographical conditions), parameters, model structure (physics), and calibration. The latter emphasizes integrated ensemble methods to improve individual hydrologic and atmospheric models, coupled atmosphere–land–hydrology systems, verification methods to evaluate probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting, and technologies to process systematic errors of hydrometeorological forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. Work on topics of statistical postprocessing of hydrometeorological model output and assessing the uncertainty of postprocessing are also encouraged.
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
PM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
While many hydroclimate extremes can be explained via internal atmospheric variability, processes that govern the exchange of water and energy exist between the atmosphere and the surface contribute to the development and persistence of extremes. These exchanges are driven by the complex interactions between different vegetation types, soil moisture, surfaces fluxes, precipitation, boundary layer evolution, and upper-air dynamics. Given these processes occur across varying spatial scales, the interconnections between the atmosphere and the surface impact local to global properties of the weather, climate, water, and ecosystems. Further, significant uncertainty exists regarding the future of global hydrological extremes and an improved understanding of the complex interactions between the ecosystem, hydrology and the atmosphere is essential to increased predictability spanning weather, subseasonal to seasonal, and climate scales. This interdisciplinary topic focuses on the numerous interplays between climate, weather, hydrology and ecosystems spanning local to global scales and will include presentations focused on improved understanding of energy and water cycles, the predictability of weather and climate extremes related to weather climate, water, ecosystem dynamics and variability, and the spatial and temporal evolution of their complex interactions. In keeping with the overall theme of the meeting, we encourage submissions highlighting the multidisciplinary nature of these topics.
Large reservoirs provide multiple benefits for water supply and downstream flood reduction. Weather and climate forecasts play a critical role in reservoir operations during extreme events to optimize reservoir storage and reduce downstream flooding. The practice of using forecasts to mitigate downstream flooding is well established and reservoir operators fully consider that information while managing releases through the dam.
Reservoir operators are balancing multiple requirements, reducing downstream flooding, ensuring water supply, increasing water availability, maximizing power generation and, keeping the dam safe. Extreme and remote events challenge both forecaster and operators to quickly determine how to manage designated flood storage and preventing failure of the dam, which include: early releases, increasing spillway releases, and storing water. Incorrect forecasts can magnify the impacts to any one requirement. Interdisciplinary cooperation is necessary to understand the accuracy of the forecasts and improve lead time to optimize operational flood management releases and preventing dam failure.
4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
While there is a general consensus that hydrologic extremes in the developing world are of great scientific and societal interest, the very limited density of in situ observations makes analysis and monitoring of these extremes very challenging. Luckily, the last five years have seen a new era in the field of satellite rainfall observations - both from the launch of new sensors and in algorithm design. A large family of products is now available with an increasingly diverse range of properties, including longer time-series, novel new algorithms for nowcasting, probabilistic assessments, customisable products for end-users, new geographical areas and new merging techniques. Equally, recent years have seen advances in how we can use satellite rainfall to inform and validate other parameters such as soil moisture or vegetative health (or conversely, how those other products might inform rainfall estimation).
At the same time, there's been transformational change in how remotely sensed weather data is used. Satellite rainfall observations are now directly influencing millions of lives through products such as climate insurance and weather triggered action, particularly across developing countries where weather data can be scarce. Addressing end-user needs is not a trivial challenge. Satellite rainfall scientists must work closely with businesses, national meteorological agencies, NGOs and governments to co-develop products and access the large body of previously inaccessible private ground-based weather data. They are also working closely with social scientists to understand how this information is visualised and used for different needs. In parallel, the private sector are also generating their own innovative products and algorithms. Many challenges remain and the growing use of satellite weather information for decisions mean that it is increasingly important to address them.
This session will address the state of the art across this field including:
- What is the current status of existing operational satellite rainfall products and what are the new products that are about to be launched?
- What is the state of the art for applied satellite rainfall research?
- How can we move from validation to "fitness for purpose"? How does one overcome the challenges of validating merged products for custom uses, especially as different products incorporate different validation data? Is there a need for a standard validation framework?
- How is satellite weather data being used by businesses, NGOs, insurers and governments around the world? How do we optimise these international, interdisciplinary partnerships? What are the logistical challenges in creating them?
- How are non-expert end-users selecting and using satellite products to meet their individual needs? What lessons have been learnt and what challenges remain?
- Greatrex, Helen (greatrex@iri.columbia.edu)
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY USA
- Funk, Chris C. (cfunk@usgs.gov)
- USGS/Earth Resources Observation Systems, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Maidment, Ross (r.i.maidment@reading.ac.uk)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- 353286 Development of a Satellite-Based Near-Real-Time Precipitation Product for Index-Based (Re)Insurance Applications in Central America
- Wang, Li-Pen (li-pen.wang08@imperial.ac.uk)
- Microinsurance Catastrophe Risk Organisation, St Michael, Barbados
- Llabres, Iker (illabres@microrisk.org)
- Microinsurance Catastrophe Risk Organisation, St Michael, Barbados
- Boelsterli, Carlos (cboelsterli@microrisk.org)
- Microinsurance Catastrophe Risk Organisation, St Michael, Barbados
- 350885 Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Products over the Congo Basin
- Nicholson, Sharon E. (snicholson@fsu.edu)
- Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL USA
- 354406 Validation of Satellite- and Gauge-Based Gridded Rainfall Products over Ghana (West Africa)
- Atiah, Winifred (winifred.a.atiah@aims-senegal.org)
- Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
- Amekudzi, Leonard (leonard.amekudzi@gmail.com)
- Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
- Fink, Andreas H. (andreas.fink@kit.edu)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
- Maranan, Marlon (marlon.maranan@kit.edu)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
- Aryee, Jeffrey (jeff.jay8845@gmail.com)
- Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
- 353607 Assessing Fitness for Purpose: A Validation of Ghanaian Satellite Rainfall within the Context of Participatory Agricultural Services and Index Insurance
- Torgbor, Francis (f.torgbor@aims.edu.gh)
- African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Biriwa, Ghana
- Greatrex, Helen (greatrex@iri.columbia.edu)
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY USA
- Lamptey, Patrick (patrickniilantelamptey@yahoo.com)
- Ghana Meteorological Agency, Accra, Ghana
- Stern, Roger (r.d.stern@reading.ac.uk)
- Stats4SD, Reading, United Kingdom
- 349499 Effects of Drop Size Distribution Variability on QPE/QPF in the San Francisco Bay Area
- Behringer, Dalton (dalton.behringer@sjsu.edu)
- San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA USA
- Chiao, Sen (sen.chiao@sjsu.edu)
- San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA USA
- 351604 Challenges and Opportunities of Implementing the National Water Model in Hawaii and Alaska
- Lindsey, Scott D. (scott.lindsey@noaa.gov)
- NWS/Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center, Anchorage, AK USA
- Streubel, David (Dave.Streubel@noaa.gov)
- NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK USA
- Cosgrove, Brian (brian.cosgrove@noaa.gov)
- NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD USA
- Kodama, Kevin (kevin.kodama@noaa.gov)
- National Weather Service, Honolulu, HI USA
- Gochis, David (gochis@ucar.edu)
- FitzGerald, Katelyn (katelynw@ucar.edu)
- 353295 On the Inter-Relationship between Land Surface Air Temperature and Skin Temperature
- Inamdar, Anand K. (anand.inamdar@noaa.gov)
- Lepeer, Ronald (ronnieleeper@cicsnc.org)
As shown on the NIDIS drought portal (
https://www.drought.gov/drought/data-maps-tools/current-conditions) current operational drought monitoring and early warning in the U.S. relies on a combination of the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM; Svoboda et al., 2002) and the Weekly Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) (Palmer, 1965; Heim 2002; 2005). In contrast to the USDM, which relies on a manual, convergence-of-evidence approach, the PDSI is an objective approach that has been attractive for monitoring, early warning, and climate projection (e.g., Abatzoglou et al., 2017; Dai, 2011; Cook et al., 2015)
While the water balance approach encapsulated in PDSI has the advantage that it may be estimated with limited input data, issues with the approach, particularly the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) have been widely reported (e.g., Sheffield et al., 2012). Moreover, the atmospheric-centric formulation of PDSI ignores the feedbacks from groundwater, soils, and vegetation on the drought state. For monitoring and forecasting seasonal to interannual variability of drought, it is critical to capture the effects of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on increased surface resistances that reduce ET primarily though stomatal closure (Milly 2016; Novick et al. 2016). For longer-term climate projections of drought, recent work further suggests that ignoring the stomatal response due to increasing CO2 in PDSI leads to an overestimation of future projected drought area, while other metrics that include actual ET (e.g., P-E) lead to dramatically reduced projections of future drought area (Swann et al., 2016).
There have been attempts to develop so-called “objective blends” that can mimic the USDM (e.g., Xia et al., 2014), but these efforts do not accurately reflect the response of vegetation to drought stress or the stomatal responses because the land surface models used in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) do not include prognostic vegetation states or represent VPD feedbacks and their controls on stomatal conductance. Moreover, from a monitoring perspective, these models often do not reflect rapidly developing droughts like thermal remote sensing-based indices such as the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI; Otkin et al., 2013). They also do not take advantage of other remotely sensed and in situ observations such as Soil Moisture from ground-based networks and SMAP and terrestrial water storage from GRACE.
With this context, the proposed theme for the Third NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force is Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Projection in the 21st Century—Beyond PDSI. We seek an objective drought index that reflects the state of drought science and includes modern observational systems and models. Ultimately, a well-informed and objective declaration of the state of drought must integrate various measures. We invite submissions related to all aspects of drought monitoring, early warning and projection.
Global and regional quantitative precipitation estimations (QPEs) are very important for understanding climate variability and hydrometeorological cycles, improving flash flood and weather forecast, effectively managing the usage of earth's freshwater resources, detecting the natural disasters, and other hydrometeorological applications. However, obtaining accurate QPEs is a big challenge in many areas of the world, due to sparse gauge networks and complex terrains. Recent advances in radar and satellite remote sensing of precipitation progress rapidly with the aims of providing accurate and high-resolution precipitation estimates, accurate flash flood forecasting, understanding of causation and geophysical process of these natural hazards. This session invites high quality, original research contributions from radar and satellite meteorology, flash flood forecasting, hazards monitoring, and related fields that research hydrometeorological hazards.
The precipitation session focuses on precipitation observation, modeling, estimation, and applications of in-situ and remotely sensed precipitation products. Topics include, but are not limited to (1) precipitation processes and modeling; (2) advances in remote sensing of precipitation from satellite and radar platforms; (3) recent development pertaining to fusion and downscaling of precipitation products; (4) assimilation of precipitation and precipitation-related variables in NWP model; (5) impacts of improving precipitation estimates on hydrologic and land surface modeling; (6) uncertainty of sub-daily precipitation observations on hydrologic design and modeling.
Over the last several decades, substantial progress has been achieved in probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting theories and applications. However, significant challenges still exist in assessing the uncertainty of complex hydrometeorological processes and improving the quality of hydrometeorological predictions, especially high-impact hydrometeorological events. This session solicits papers that focus on, but are not limited to, (1) addressing uncertainty in hydrometeorological forecasting from a number of sources in both offline and couple systems, and (2) innovative methods in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting. The former might include uncertainties in forcing data (e.g., quantitative precipitation estimation, meteorological forcing data), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture, heterogeneous geographical conditions), parameters, model structure (physics), and calibration. The latter emphasizes integrated ensemble methods to improve individual hydrologic and atmospheric models, coupled atmosphere–land–hydrology systems, verification methods to evaluate probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting, and technologies to process systematic errors of hydrometeorological forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. Work on topics of statistical postprocessing of hydrometeorological model output and assessing the uncertainty of postprocessing are also encouraged.
5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
Awards Banquet Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019
99th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Thursday, 10 January 2019
8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
An invited session of experts will discuss some vital and varied, but not-so-visible, roles of spectrum frequency allocation which effects current and future environmental satellite systems and the water, weather & climate enterprise. Areas of possible discussion are: Weather radar, remote sensing impacts, GOES communications, DCS, Small satellites, radiosondes, frequency-sharing proposals in the NOAAPort band, and International Impacts.
Global and regional quantitative precipitation estimations (QPEs) are very important for understanding climate variability and hydrometeorological cycles, improving flash flood and weather forecast, effectively managing the usage of earth's freshwater resources, detecting the natural disasters, and other hydrometeorological applications. However, obtaining accurate QPEs is a big challenge in many areas of the world, due to sparse gauge networks and complex terrains. Recent advances in radar and satellite remote sensing of precipitation progress rapidly with the aims of providing accurate and high-resolution precipitation estimates, accurate flash flood forecasting, understanding of causation and geophysical process of these natural hazards. This session invites high quality, original research contributions from radar and satellite meteorology, flash flood forecasting, hazards monitoring, and related fields that research hydrometeorological hazards.
The precipitation session focuses on precipitation observation, modeling, estimation, and applications of in-situ and remotely sensed precipitation products. Topics include, but are not limited to (1) precipitation processes and modeling; (2) advances in remote sensing of precipitation from satellite and radar platforms; (3) recent development pertaining to fusion and downscaling of precipitation products; (4) assimilation of precipitation and precipitation-related variables in NWP model; (5) impacts of improving precipitation estimates on hydrologic and land surface modeling; (6) uncertainty of sub-daily precipitation observations on hydrologic design and modeling.
9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
Global and regional quantitative precipitation estimations (QPEs) are very important for understanding climate variability and hydrometeorological cycles, improving flash flood and weather forecast, effectively managing the usage of earth's freshwater resources, detecting the natural disasters, and other hydrometeorological applications. However, obtaining accurate QPEs is a big challenge in many areas of the world, due to sparse gauge networks and complex terrains. Recent advances in radar and satellite remote sensing of precipitation progress rapidly with the aims of providing accurate and high-resolution precipitation estimates, accurate flash flood forecasting, understanding of causation and geophysical process of these natural hazards. This session invites high quality, original research contributions from radar and satellite meteorology, flash flood forecasting, hazards monitoring, and related fields that research hydrometeorological hazards.
The precipitation session focuses on precipitation observation, modeling, estimation, and applications of in-situ and remotely sensed precipitation products. Topics include, but are not limited to (1) precipitation processes and modeling; (2) advances in remote sensing of precipitation from satellite and radar platforms; (3) recent development pertaining to fusion and downscaling of precipitation products; (4) assimilation of precipitation and precipitation-related variables in NWP model; (5) impacts of improving precipitation estimates on hydrologic and land surface modeling; (6) uncertainty of sub-daily precipitation observations on hydrologic design and modeling.
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
As shown on the NIDIS drought portal (
https://www.drought.gov/drought/data-maps-tools/current-conditions) current operational drought monitoring and early warning in the U.S. relies on a combination of the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM; Svoboda et al., 2002) and the Weekly Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) (Palmer, 1965; Heim 2002; 2005). In contrast to the USDM, which relies on a manual, convergence-of-evidence approach, the PDSI is an objective approach that has been attractive for monitoring, early warning, and climate projection (e.g., Abatzoglou et al., 2017; Dai, 2011; Cook et al., 2015)
While the water balance approach encapsulated in PDSI has the advantage that it may be estimated with limited input data, issues with the approach, particularly the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) have been widely reported (e.g., Sheffield et al., 2012). Moreover, the atmospheric-centric formulation of PDSI ignores the feedbacks from groundwater, soils, and vegetation on the drought state. For monitoring and forecasting seasonal to interannual variability of drought, it is critical to capture the effects of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on increased surface resistances that reduce ET primarily though stomatal closure (Milly 2016; Novick et al. 2016). For longer-term climate projections of drought, recent work further suggests that ignoring the stomatal response due to increasing CO2 in PDSI leads to an overestimation of future projected drought area, while other metrics that include actual ET (e.g., P-E) lead to dramatically reduced projections of future drought area (Swann et al., 2016).
There have been attempts to develop so-called “objective blends” that can mimic the USDM (e.g., Xia et al., 2014), but these efforts do not accurately reflect the response of vegetation to drought stress or the stomatal responses because the land surface models used in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) do not include prognostic vegetation states or represent VPD feedbacks and their controls on stomatal conductance. Moreover, from a monitoring perspective, these models often do not reflect rapidly developing droughts like thermal remote sensing-based indices such as the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI; Otkin et al., 2013). They also do not take advantage of other remotely sensed and in situ observations such as Soil Moisture from ground-based networks and SMAP and terrestrial water storage from GRACE.
With this context, the proposed theme for the Third NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force is Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Projection in the 21st Century—Beyond PDSI. We seek an objective drought index that reflects the state of drought science and includes modern observational systems and models. Ultimately, a well-informed and objective declaration of the state of drought must integrate various measures. We invite submissions related to all aspects of drought monitoring, early warning and projection.
The precipitation session focuses on precipitation observation, modeling, estimation, and applications of in-situ and remotely sensed precipitation products. Topics include, but are not limited to (1) precipitation processes and modeling; (2) advances in remote sensing of precipitation from satellite and radar platforms; (3) recent development pertaining to fusion and downscaling of precipitation products; (4) assimilation of precipitation and precipitation-related variables in NWP model; (5) impacts of improving precipitation estimates on hydrologic and land surface modeling; (6) uncertainty of sub-daily precipitation observations on hydrologic design and modeling.
3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
PM Coffee Break (Thurs)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
As shown on the NIDIS drought portal (
https://www.drought.gov/drought/data-maps-tools/current-conditions) current operational drought monitoring and early warning in the U.S. relies on a combination of the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM; Svoboda et al., 2002) and the Weekly Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) (Palmer, 1965; Heim 2002; 2005). In contrast to the USDM, which relies on a manual, convergence-of-evidence approach, the PDSI is an objective approach that has been attractive for monitoring, early warning, and climate projection (e.g., Abatzoglou et al., 2017; Dai, 2011; Cook et al., 2015)
While the water balance approach encapsulated in PDSI has the advantage that it may be estimated with limited input data, issues with the approach, particularly the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) have been widely reported (e.g., Sheffield et al., 2012). Moreover, the atmospheric-centric formulation of PDSI ignores the feedbacks from groundwater, soils, and vegetation on the drought state. For monitoring and forecasting seasonal to interannual variability of drought, it is critical to capture the effects of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on increased surface resistances that reduce ET primarily though stomatal closure (Milly 2016; Novick et al. 2016). For longer-term climate projections of drought, recent work further suggests that ignoring the stomatal response due to increasing CO2 in PDSI leads to an overestimation of future projected drought area, while other metrics that include actual ET (e.g., P-E) lead to dramatically reduced projections of future drought area (Swann et al., 2016).
There have been attempts to develop so-called “objective blends” that can mimic the USDM (e.g., Xia et al., 2014), but these efforts do not accurately reflect the response of vegetation to drought stress or the stomatal responses because the land surface models used in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) do not include prognostic vegetation states or represent VPD feedbacks and their controls on stomatal conductance. Moreover, from a monitoring perspective, these models often do not reflect rapidly developing droughts like thermal remote sensing-based indices such as the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI; Otkin et al., 2013). They also do not take advantage of other remotely sensed and in situ observations such as Soil Moisture from ground-based networks and SMAP and terrestrial water storage from GRACE.
With this context, the proposed theme for the Third NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force is Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Projection in the 21st Century—Beyond PDSI. We seek an objective drought index that reflects the state of drought science and includes modern observational systems and models. Ultimately, a well-informed and objective declaration of the state of drought must integrate various measures. We invite submissions related to all aspects of drought monitoring, early warning and projection.
While there is a general consensus that hydrologic extremes in the developing world are of great scientific and societal interest, the very limited density of in situ observations makes analysis and monitoring of these extremes very challenging. Luckily, the last five years have seen a new era in the field of satellite rainfall observations - both from the launch of new sensors and in algorithm design. A large family of products is now available with an increasingly diverse range of properties, including longer time-series, novel new algorithms for nowcasting, probabilistic assessments, customisable products for end-users, new geographical areas and new merging techniques. Equally, recent years have seen advances in how we can use satellite rainfall to inform and validate other parameters such as soil moisture or vegetative health (or conversely, how those other products might inform rainfall estimation).
At the same time, there's been transformational change in how remotely sensed weather data is used. Satellite rainfall observations are now directly influencing millions of lives through products such as climate insurance and weather triggered action, particularly across developing countries where weather data can be scarce. Addressing end-user needs is not a trivial challenge. Satellite rainfall scientists must work closely with businesses, national meteorological agencies, NGOs and governments to co-develop products and access the large body of previously inaccessible private ground-based weather data. They are also working closely with social scientists to understand how this information is visualised and used for different needs. In parallel, the private sector are also generating their own innovative products and algorithms. Many challenges remain and the growing use of satellite weather information for decisions mean that it is increasingly important to address them.
This session will address the state of the art across this field including:
- What is the current status of existing operational satellite rainfall products and what are the new products that are about to be launched?
- What is the state of the art for applied satellite rainfall research?
- How can we move from validation to "fitness for purpose"? How does one overcome the challenges of validating merged products for custom uses, especially as different products incorporate different validation data? Is there a need for a standard validation framework?
- How is satellite weather data being used by businesses, NGOs, insurers and governments around the world? How do we optimise these international, interdisciplinary partnerships? What are the logistical challenges in creating them?
- How are non-expert end-users selecting and using satellite products to meet their individual needs? What lessons have been learnt and what challenges remain?
- Greatrex, Helen (greatrex@iri.columbia.edu)
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY USA
- Funk, Chris C. (cfunk@usgs.gov)
- USGS/Earth Resources Observation Systems, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Maidment, Ross (r.i.maidment@reading.ac.uk)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- 352646 The IMERG Experience in Building Precipitation Products That Users Want (Invited Presentation)
- Huffman, George J. (george.j.huffman@nasa.gov)
- NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD USA
- 352895 Exploring Global Precipitation Extremes with CHIRPS v2.0 (Invited Presentation)
- Peterson, Pete (geogpete@gmail.com)
- Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Funk, Chris C. (cfunk@usgs.gov)
- USGS/Earth Resources Observation Systems, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Roca, Rémy (roca@lmd.jussieu.fr)
- Harrison, Laura S. (harrison@geog.ucsb.edu)
- Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Husak, Greg (husak@geog.ucsb.edu)
- Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA USA
- Alexander, Lisa V. (l.alexander@unsw.edu.au)
- Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Hillbruner, Chris (chillbruner@fews.net)
- FEWS NET, Washington, DC USA
- Rowland, James (rowland@usgs.gov)
- USGS, Sioux Falls, SD USA
- Budde, Michael E. (mbudde@usgs.gov)
- SAIC-USGS/EROS, Sioux Falls, SD USA
- 353750 Developments within the TAMSAT Group for Long-Term Rainfall Monitoring and Agricultural Early Warning across Africa
- Maidment, Ross (r.i.maidment@reading.ac.uk)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- Black, Emily (e.c.l.black@reading.ac.uk)
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Climate Division, Reading, United Kingdom
- Young, Matthew (matthew.young@reading.ac.uk)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- Greatrex, Helen (greatrex@iri.columbia.edu)
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY USA
- Asfaw, Dagmawi (d.t.asfaw@pgr.reading.ac.uk)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- 350436 A Seasonal Rainfall Performance Probability Tool for Famine Early Warning Systems
- Novella, Nick (nicholas.novella@noaa.gov)
- CPC, College Park, MD USA
- Thiaw, Wassila (Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov)
- CPC, Camp Springs, MD USA
- 349966 Using Satellite Rainfall Estimates to Enhance Climate Services in Africa
- Dinku, Tufa (tufa@iri.columbia.edu)
- Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY USA
- 350922 Can We Create Global Precipitation Products on Demand?
- Kummerow, Christian (kummerow@atmos.colostate.edu)
- Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO USA
- Brown, Paula J. (pbrown@atmos.colostate.edu)
- Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO USA
5:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019
99th AMS Annual Meeting Adjourns
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner