Air-Sea Interaction in Tropical Cyclones: Rick Anthes’ Vision and Progress over Half a Century (Invited Presentation)

Rick Anthes’ vision and pioneering work on tropical cyclones (TCs), from understanding the TC structure and dynamics, to prediction of TC formation and evaluation as well as TC impacts as summarized in his book (Anthes 1982), have inspired generations of scientists in TC research and forecasting. His work with colleagues at Penn State on air-sea interaction in TCs in the 1970’s set the stage for a developing an fully coupled atmosphere-ocean prediction system by investigating TC response to sea surface temperature change (Anthes and Chang 1978), ocean response to TCs (Chang and Anthes 1978), and mutual response of the TC and ocean in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model (Chang and Anthes 1979). This visionary and systematic approach of air-sea interaction in TCs has a profound influence in our field and my own research. In this presentation, I will provide a brief overview of progress on air-sea interaction and TC dynamics in 1980-90’s, progress and challenges in observing and modeling of the energy source (heat and moist fluxes) and sink (surface stress and TC induced upper ocean cooling) with explicitly representation of surface waves/sea state at the air-sea interface and development of fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean models in 2000-10’s. Most recently, TC forecast is going through a paradigm shift from track and intensity to explicit impact forecast such as the extreme winds and rain, high waves, storm surge, and flooding. The storm induced damages are far more complex than what traditional TC track and intensity forecast can capture, which have been highlighted by the Superstorm Sandy (2012), Hurricanes Harvey and Irma (2017). Looking ahead, I am optimistic that recent advancement in science and technology, especially in integrated Earth System science and the fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-land model capability will enable us to address the challenge and meet societal needs in TC impact forecasting and decision-making by the coastal communities worldwide with growing population and build environment in a changing climate and rising seas.