Enhanced Marine Forecasting and Decision Support Services from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the National Hurricane Center

Mariners over the tropical and subtropical oceans face a variety of meteorological and oceanographic threats, including hurricanes, extratropical cyclones, gap wind events, severe thunderstorms, large swells, and rogue waves. The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Hurricane Center is an 18-member forecasting group responsible for predicting winds and waves for the tropical North Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical eastern North Pacific. It is staffed 365 days a year and 24 hours a day to provide warnings for mariners covering 14 million square miles of open ocean conditions. TAFB staffs three operational desks: Atlantic marine, Pacific marine, and Atlantic–Pacific surface analysis. TAFB’s customers include operators of commercial fishing vessels, yachts, cruise ships, vessels making transoceanic voyages, and the U.S. Coast Guard as well as the meteorological services of coastal nations. TAFB issues about 100 products per day in text, graphical, and gridded formats. Methods for communicating products include the Internet, radiofacsimiles, synthesized voice, and Navigation Telex Radio (NAVTEX). Such a wide variety of transmission methods are needed because of the range of technology to receive weather information on boats and ships over the open ocean. This presentation highlights the meteorological/oceanographic challenges faced by our TAFB forecasters as well recent innovation for new products and services for our marine customers. Finally, the talk will discuss future opportunities to enhance both predictability and products/services by TAFB in coming years.